2/4 - deep in protected pot

-UTG+1 is quasi short donk, and was hoping he'd just ship pre
-BTN in this hand is piano spike reg on stars, runs around 19/16 with a pretty high AF as he often raises his hands post I find, instead of flatting
-thoughts on turn check?
-flop check was to induce a light jam from shorty, though bet could be better
-Is it a safe assumption that most regs wouldn't bluff on turn, given its a protected pot?


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($460.20)
UTG+1 ($195.60)
CO ($438.00)
BTN ($885.50)
SB ($372.00)
Hero (BB) ($1414.30)

Pre-flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is BB :qc: :qd:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $44, UTG+1 calls $32, BTN calls $32

Flop: :jc: :5c: :7c: ($134, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $36, BTN calls $36, Hero raises to $155, UTG+1 calls $115.60, BTN calls $119

Turn: :6h: ($595.60, 3 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $414, Hero ??

I'd always bet the flop I think like 80ish. looks a little fps to me and I'd fold now cause I can't imagine him bluffing much into such a small side pot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by meeloche

I'd always bet the flop I think like 80ish. looks a little fps to me and I'd fold now cause I can't imagine him bluffing much into such a small side pot.

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I don't think its too FPS. I think in this scenario, a bet into two players looks pretty strong and the more likely player I will be getting money from postflop in this hand is the fish. So I feel like checking and letting him jam for pot (which I think will happen often) is alright.

Obviously once the reg actually comes along, it makes it more confusing for me, but I feel like I check, shorty jams and reg folds line, will happen the most often.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by meeloche

I'd always bet the flop I think like 80ish. looks a little fps to me and I'd fold now cause I can't imagine him bluffing much into such a small side pot.

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why not like 75 so if the shortie jams you can shove it in?

I typically go a lil more pre and bet flop. Its an easy bet fold vs the deep guy and the best way to get the donk's money I think barring him being a shove happy maniac. Checking sets you up for lame situations imo.

Turn is a weird spot but I think i would just ship it in. Its just so hard to put him on a set or a flush when he just calls 36 on the flop.

I'm surprised by the posts so far, i like how everything played out. i think the c/r is fine because the betsizing for the bettor is almost never good and the call probably isn't strong either. Aand the pot is big. And i also like checking the turn, now you just fold....

but what happened to utg +1

utg+1 is allin on the turn

Max - what range are you putting pianospike on exactly? I could see him slowplaying a big flush on the flop but given that the Q:club: is in our hand and the J:club: is on the board, I'm not sure which flushes are supposed to be in his range. AK 3bets preflop against the fish 100% of the time. Sets would raise the small flop bet almost 100% of the time. The hand that makes the most sense to me is AJs or KJs that is certainly ahead of the fish's range but recognizes our range has no (or almost no) hands that are happy to stack off on a blank turn and thinks he can push us off an overpair. The fact that the fish is in the pot and we'd not 3bet suited garbage is key because our range is filled with overpairs and not flushes.

i think hes got you beat. Jx by itself usually isn't betting that big. could he have 98s ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

Max - what range are you putting pianospike on exactly? I could see him slowplaying a big flush on the flop but given that the Q:club: is in our hand and the J:club: is on the board, I'm not sure which flushes are supposed to be in his range. AK 3bets preflop against the fish 100% of the time. Sets would raise the small flop bet almost 100% of the time. The hand that makes the most sense to me is AJs or KJs that is certainly ahead of the fish's range but recognizes our range has no (or almost no) hands that are happy to stack off on a blank turn and thinks he can push us off an overpair. The fact that the fish is in the pot and we'd not 3bet suited garbage is key because our range is filled with overpairs and not flushes.

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I agree w/ this really strongly. I think villain can be bluffing against us with a hand that is likely stronger than the fish's or has ability to improve to a better hand, yet except to fold us out on later streets since he should know we really can't continue after the line we took on the flop unless we're slowplaying the nuts.

He's really never bluffing here imo. The only hand we beat that he could have is AJ that's it.

i guess he fooled me cuz i d call but then again i wouldn t be checking the turn i d be shoving it