200nl top 2 vs. tag and fish

pfr is a winning 15/12 nitty tag, minraiser is a complete monkey. Turn and river action? Note stacks

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($314)
UTG+1 ($219.90)
MP1 ($259.80)
MP2 ($200)
Hero (CO) ($466.75)
Button ($234.05)
SB ($117.25)
BB ($210.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
UTG bets $6, 3 folds, Hero calls $6, 1 fold, SB calls $5, BB calls $4

Flop: ($24) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $14, Hero calls $14, SB raises to $28, 1 fold, UTG raises to $49, Hero calls $35, SB calls $21

Turn: ($171) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $114, Hero

is calling KQs in CO really profitable vs UTG tight opener? As played, i'm hard pressed to fold this. Yeah, i shove and pay the man monies. If UTG folds, fishy monkey might pay you off.

ship it in and expect him to stack off with AA, maybe some AK

Insta push for me..what hands can he have AA,AK,AQ,44,10J,MAybe KK,QQ, but since we have KQ..little less likley..I think he has AA,AK here alot

holy shitcakes you get into some horrible spots don't you!

I can't even properly analyse this hand. Everytime I think it through I convince myself he has KK/QQ but that's 2 combos and that can't be right. How come I advocate nitty folds in just about every thread yet at the tables I'm the biggest station there is??

I just can't see him vbetting AA/AK here when we've shown so much strength on the flop. Yeah we can just about have JTs but if I was UTG I would be shitting bricks about 44/QQ/KK which make up a bigger part of our range. If he's not betting AK/AA here then his range is ... sets? Maybe we can shove and get him to fold 44 that would be cool.

jfc, I need results on this one sosososo bad

This is too heroic for me.
The only way you can consider a fold is if he never has AA here... Wouldn't he c-bet? Wouldn't he call the minraise? Would he never bet the turn?
as for the action... just call/call, or shove river if he checks... sb could have AK, KJ, JT, 44, QQ, KK, AA- which makes our equity against utg's range even better.

The only thing I'm not so sure about is the call pre. - you're IP, your sooted, but you're easily dominated on most flops that you will get action on.

Yeah in fairness I don't think there's any way I fold this at the tables, but when we can massively analyse it like this, do you really think most decent tags are going to be vbetting this turn with AA? What is he hoping to get value from? Would he really do that tiny 3bet on the flop with AA?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by badgers

holy shitcakes you get into some horrible spots don't you!

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this was a pretty easy spot for me since I was actually villain in this hand ;). More interesting from his pov though. I thought KQ was a fold somewhere in the hand and I was shocked when he flipped KQ and not 44.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($314)
UTG+1 ($219.90)
MP1 ($259.80)
MP2 ($200)
Hero (CO) ($466.75)
Button ($234.05)
SB ($117.25)
BB ($210.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
UTG bets $6, 3 folds, Hero calls $6, 1 fold, SB calls $5, BB calls $4

Flop: ($24) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $14, Hero calls $14, SB raises to $28, 1 fold, UTG raises to $49, Hero calls $35, SB calls $21

Turn: ($171) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $114, Hero calls $114, SB calls $62.25 (All-In)

River: ($461.25) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (3 players, 1 all-in)
UTG bets $145 (All-In), Hero calls $145

Total pot: $751.25 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (one pair, tens).
Hero had Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (two pair, Kings and Queens).
UTG had Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (three of a kind, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $748.25

The reason it's pretty much impossible to find a fold is what badger said - there are 6 combinations of AA, and 2 of KK, QQ, even less if SB can have a K or Q in his range - and it's not that often a 15/12 will have 44 in his UTG opening range. UTG could be 3 times less likely to have AA than KK or QQ and it would still be a call.

ahhh so sneaky! Since when do you run 15/12?

If it was a reg that I knew and I felt sure wasn't vbetting worse I think this has to be a fold but our hand is so so pretty (yeah I'm claiming to fold after results are posted so what :P)

Who was hero?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by badgers

ahhh so sneaky! Since when do you run 15/12?

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It was to get regs to pay me off since they see me as 13/8 :( fml you caught me. What do you have me as?

Hero was timmmmmmerlmaao

I have you at like 12/10 I think, so I snapfold flop ldo.

OR DO I???

advance poker leveling going on here watch out.

I think the flop is an obv fold after the c/r and 3b

Quote:

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Originally Posted by badgers

I have you at like 12/10 I think, so I snapfold flop ldo.

OR DO I???

advance poker leveling going on here watch out.

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oh damn! We play at different times anyways. I think I have <5k hands with you all time and virtually none the last 6 months. I have changed in this time ;).

KK yes,but you got KQ and one more K is on the board and there is a Q.It i hard to convince yourself that he has pocket K's.And that loose player on SB who was pushing with draw was there to confuse you.LOL he got pot odds to play and he was adding a value for straight that he wait for.I don't know maybe I am mad but always is better small win then the big lose.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ljove

KK yes,but you got KQ and one more K is on the board and there is a Q.It i hard to convince yourself that he has pocket K's.And that loose player on SB who was pushing with draw was there to confuse you.LOL he got pot odds to play and he was adding a value for straight that he wait for.I don't know maybe I am mad but always is better small win then the big lose.

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This sums in up in a nice coherent and concise way.