tptk on dry board vs fit or fold fish
Villain is 40/9 over 90 hands. 85% fold to c-bet.
I have a note that he vbet the nut straight for 1/4 pot on the river. Looked like scared money.
Later on I saw him call an utg minraise from MP, and then overcall a button 3b to $10 with AQ, and cc an 883 flop and check/minraise a Q on the turn.
$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($133)
UTG+1 ($75.31)
Hero ($100)
MP2 ($203)
MP3 ($101)
CO ($366)
BTN ($61.89)
SB ($180)
BB ($214)
Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 9 players) Hero is MP1 :qc: :ah:
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP2 calls $4, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, 2 folds
Flop: :3s: :qh: :2d: ($13.50, 3 players)
Hero bets $8, MP2 folds, BTN calls $8
Turn: :kd: ($29.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $14.75, Hero folds
Final Pot: $29.50
BTN wins $43.52 ( won +$16.77 )
Hero lost -$12
MP2 lost -$4
I c-bet that small because of stack sizes - I can get it AI by the river anyway. I didn't think I could get 3 streets of value from QJ or worse once the K hits, so I went with check turn, bet river.
He's very stationary - only ever seen him bet the ueber-nuts up to that point.
If I call, he only has half a psb left, which makes a c/f on the river super gay.
Only playing 4 tables at the time, and having observed most hands that he played, I feel pretty confident that folding the turn is fine as played, but I was wondering about the overall line... bet sizing and checking turn...
And I'm also a bit confused about what range I can give him for calling the flop - his AQ hand later in the session didn't shed much light tbh.
