QQ facing heat on ragged dry board.

Villain is 26/19/2.7 with a 3 bet of 2.3% over 130 hands. In a previous hand he had flatted my 3-bet after opening utg and donked pot/folded to my raise on 842R.

Can I call flop to fold to a big turn bet here since don't think he'll be hammering the turn with TT JJ too often?

Also a lot of people don't follow through with bluffs in these spots after I call the flop. They commonly realise you have a hand and give up. He's provably flatting preflop with JJ TT here and may well raise the flop. So his range is TT JJ sets and some bluffs on the flop given history of making a weird bluffy looking play.

I feel it's more weighted to sets though after this turn bet but idk this spot just really confuses me. Also, how differently would this play vs an unknown without a potentially spewy history?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($50.25)
Button ($17.10)
SB ($50)
BB ($61.40)
Hero (UTG) ($90.25)
MP ($72.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
Hero bets $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $3, CO raises $10.50, Hero calls $7.50

Turn: ($25.75) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $17, Hero folds

Total pot: $25.75

On the flop I think this is 45s, 56s, air and sets - I wouldn't expect 88-JJ too much. Flop raise and c/r % would be interesting, so would be your stats.

If I was the villain, I'd give up on my bluffs on that board, but I would raise/barrel turn a lot vs timid players. This flop completely misses your range except for overpairs, but I wouldn't want to try and bluff you off an overpair on the turn, unless you're super weak-tight.
Unless he's very agressive post-flop, I don't think folding is a mistake.
Post flop stats or player notes would be nice.

I was running like 25/21 or there abouts on that table. I had opened a lot of hands lately. c-bet quite a bit and my image was anything but weak/tight.

Villain hadn't raised a c-bet yet out of 3 oppertunities.

i think you can fold on flop. super dry flop and bad spot for him to bluff.

Folding flop seems a bit too tight. Could be variance or a sample issue, but I see a lot of 50nl people raising all kinds of pairs here for whatever reason.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

Folding flop seems a bit too tight. Could be variance or a sample issue, but I see a lot of 50nl people raising all kinds of pairs here for whatever reason.

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i agree to a point, but many of those same villains are firing the turn "so your AK doesn't catch up".

He's repping way too narrow a range (77, 33, 22, and sometimes a slow-played AA/KK) for me to ever fold flop.
I probably call turn and reevaluate river here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JL

He's repping way too narrow a range (77, 33, 22, and sometimes a slow-played AA/KK) for me to ever fold flop.
I probably call turn and reevaluate river here.

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I'd usually lean towards this, mostly because I'm a non-believer. But I think in this case a turn fold could be close, cause given his 3betting tendencies I'd imagine its more likely he's the type to flat KK/AA pre.

What about as played B/F Turn?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dragon Slayer

What about as played B/F Turn?

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donk lead turn with the intention of folding to a raise?

this would be really bad...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dragon Slayer

What about as played B/F Turn?

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This would be nonsense. He only has twice the pot behind and is almost certainly going to shove or fold over a decent-sized bet.

Turn spot is marginal, I'd shove with KK I think.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JL

He's repping way too narrow a range (77, 33, 22, and sometimes a slow-played AA/KK) for me to ever fold flop.
I probably call turn and reevaluate river here.

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I'd usually lean towards this, mostly because I'm a non-believer. But I think in this case a turn fold could be close, cause given his 3betting tendencies I'd imagine its more likely he's the type to flat KK/AA pre.

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So if we call the Turn then whats our River plan? We are still in kinda a crappy spot OOP.

fuck folding, I just take the best line which allows me not to do so, so c/c c/c I guess or call flop c/shove turn if we think he's going to check back like 99-JJ on the end.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dragon Slayer

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JL

He's repping way too narrow a range (77, 33, 22, and sometimes a slow-played AA/KK) for me to ever fold flop.
I probably call turn and reevaluate river here.

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I'd usually lean towards this, mostly because I'm a non-believer. But I think in this case a turn fold could be close, cause given his 3betting tendencies I'd imagine its more likely he's the type to flat KK/AA pre.

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So if we call the Turn then whats our River plan? We are still in kinda a crappy spot OOP.

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The board is so dry, we can c/c and c/reeval river. I can't imagine that many people running a 3-barrel bluff here too often though.

id honestly say its not too tight to fold flop, its just correct.you guys just love throwing money away here.

imo he aint bluffing and plays all his marginal and some strong hands differently. he has one pair beat so fold.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Da GOAT

id honestly say its not too tight to fold flop, its just correct.you guys just love throwing money away here.

imo he aint bluffing and plays all his marginal and some strong hands differently. he has one pair beat so fold.

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I think turn c/f is fine. I think people are value towning themselves with worse and bluffing sometimes (45ss, A5s, A4s) here a little too much to b/f flop straight up. Not to mention the mega ownage that would occur if you just start b/f QQ+ on these boards when they rep exactly 9 hand combos.

In theory I agree with Griffey, but in reality I just dont think 50nl (or even 100nl) players are going to be exploiting you if you fold this flop. I dunno, I probably call flop then c/f turn and end up losing extra monies.

Board: 7c 3h 2s 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.273% 27.27% 00.00% 1728 0.00 { JJ-77 }
Hand 1: 72.727% 72.73% 00.00% 4608 0.00 { QQ }

You should probably put 22 and 33 into that stove.

wasnt meant to be an exact range... but ill do it anyway


7,920 games 0.005 secs 1,584,000 games/sec

Board: 7c 3h 2s 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 4680 0.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 3240 0.00 { JJ-77, 33-22 }

??

meh, I think a lot of things even out, like the fact that he might not raise with 88-JJ is cancelled out by the fact that it's unlikely he flats with AA/KK PF and raises sets on this board texture. I'm learning towards tank-calling the turn and then insta-checking river, think that gets the most out of his bluffs/ thin-value hands.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

fuck folding, I just take the best line which allows me not to do so

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I like this thought process.

Nice post spenda, there's a few factors that can go both ways and I think it comes down to the LAGs are going to look for reasons to stack off and the nits are going to look for reasons to fold.

yeah i c/f turn for sure since he can have KK+.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

Nice post spenda, there's a few factors that can go both ways and I think it comes down to the LAGs are going to look for reasons to stack off and the nits are going to look for reasons to fold.

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people who learned poker through LHE can always find a reason to call it off

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Da GOAT

id honestly say its not too tight to fold flop, its just correct.you guys just love throwing money away here.

imo he aint bluffing and plays all his marginal and some strong hands differently. he has one pair beat so fold.

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Well said. I'd fold flop as well.

Ok given the huge split in oppinions of many strong players, I'm guessing this is just a very close spot then where without better reads there isn't going to be a massive difference EV wise betwen stacking off and not stacking off.

Do people think this is close and isn't going to be a huge mistake either way?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Do people think this is close and isn't going to be a huge mistake either way?

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In theory it could be close, or at least calling flop and maybe calling turn is close vs most opponents.

But nobody can answer this, you didn't give us any description of your play or how he might perceive you. If you're a 12/12 nit who only raises AA utg here, then it might not be close. If you're a 30/25 lagg who opens 25% from UTG and calls down with any piece of a board, then it might not be close.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dragon Slayer

What about as played B/F Turn?

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donk lead turn with the intention of folding to a raise?

this would be really bad...

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whys that?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dragon Slayer

What about as played B/F Turn?

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donk lead turn with the intention of folding to a raise?

this would be really bad...

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whys that?

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Cause we fold all his airish worse hands and fold to his better hands for the same price as it would have cost us to see a river card. As well as the fact that we probably aren't sure how he'd react to a donk lead here, so we could even fold the best hand to a raise.

calling flop and calling turn just to c/f river when we are only 100bb's deep seems really bad.

I just c/shove the turn he is repping too narrow of a range imo

if hes raising flop with JJ/TT you are calling it off

no one thinks hes bluffing multiple streets here and neither do i

id likely go searching for timing tells with larger timing and smaller betsizing meaning more likely JJ-TT and making me more likely to call off. he is going to hope you have the hand you have if he has a set and since hes been playing goofy postflop he probably cannot conceive of you folding an overpair.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Do people think this is close and isn't going to be a huge mistake either way?

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In theory it could be close, or at least calling flop and maybe calling turn is close vs most opponents.

But nobody can answer this, you didn't give us any description of your play or how he might perceive you. If you're a 12/12 nit who only raises AA utg here, then it might not be close. If you're a 30/25 lagg who opens 25% from UTG and calls down with any piece of a board, then it might not be close.

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I think the BIGGEST deciding factor should be recent history. And since the last hand he prob feels like he cant bluff you since you re raised him. Id say hes got it here more often than that.
And What Grif said you image I think is a BIG factor as well.
PS. Sorry i was being a spew monkey and keeping all the fish to myself on that table we played today :)

Obviously I ment I was playing on the same table as Carroters, not Griffey.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dragon Slayer

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Do people think this is close and isn't going to be a huge mistake either way?

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In theory it could be close, or at least calling flop and maybe calling turn is close vs most opponents.

But nobody can answer this, you didn't give us any description of your play or how he might perceive you. If you're a 12/12 nit who only raises AA utg here, then it might not be close. If you're a 30/25 lagg who opens 25% from UTG and calls down with any piece of a board, then it might not be close.

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I think the BIGGEST deciding factor should be recent history. And since the last hand he prob feels like he cant bluff you since you re raised him. Id say hes got it here more often than that.
And What Grif said you image I think is a BIG factor as well.
PS. Sorry i was being a spew monkey and keeping all the fish to myself on that table we played today :)

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Meh think I was running like 8/8 on that table over 50 hands, lol carddeadaments. You is lucky since I haz position on you imo.

Not to hi-jack your thread. But I knoooow you wanted to put da squeeze on me one time when tanked you knew I was ISOing/3 betting garbage. I was about to type in chat "dont squeeze me son" But I didnt want the fish to know we were da mastas of NL50