AQ facing bad turn card OOP 25NL

Villain is Raf Dogg, and I have him as 14/11 over 400

First: Is the c-bet size good? I 2/3 pot it but I upon review I think a closer to pot sized c-bet is better b/c I am OOP and it seems that on this flop he is either continuing to any sized bet or folding...

Pretty much the worst turn card got there

Is this a bet/fold here? And if we are bet folding is 2/3 pot good?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($37.10)
MP1 ($26.50)
Hero (MP2) ($33.65)
MP3 ($26.15)
CO ($25.35)
Button ($25)
SB ($55.10)
BB ($17.90)
UTG ($37.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/as.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/qd.gif
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero bets $1.25, 1 fold, CO calls $1.25, 3 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($4.10) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/qc.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/tc.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/qs.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.75, CO calls $2.75, 1 fold

Turn: ($9.60) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/jc.gif (2 players)
Hero's plan is?

My guess (hidden) > c/c re-eval River

Lets try to give him a range pre flop, say his three bet range would be (JJ+, AK).

Calling range - (TT-77,A7s+,JTs,QTs,AQo-ATo,KJo+,QJo)

So you have 61% vs that range.

I'm not to sure on that range as his stats indicate more of a setminer so maybe take out some of the weaker broadways and add in lower PP's.

On the flop your way ahead (82-18) so you are not c-betting but value betting, make it near full pot.

Turn is harder, what will he actually fold to a bet if that's our objective?

I need to think about this more.

Bet more on the turn 3/4-full pot
after the turn this hits everything he could have floated with. There are only a few combos of Qx left and he didn't play it like an overpair. I think just b/f the turn as there isn't alot left that we can beat now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eternal

I think just b/f the turn as there isn't alot left that we can beat now.

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Isn't this contradictory? Do you expect Villain to fold a better hand? The Turn does kinda suck but we still have equity so I'd opt for a passive line.

Turn is b/f $7 for value IMO. We can still get value from K10/A10/QK, plus we have a draw to a full house and top straight if villain flat calls their draws or made hands.

Yes we are crushed by a bunch of made hands but they likely shovel on the turn which lets us get away cheap.

I srsly hate c/c, c/c because he can just own us on riv's we don't improve

I srsly hate b/c because his reraising range crushes us

c/c'ing to reevaluate river also sucks IMO b/c we then leave it up to our opponent to make a bet-size error / value bet worse which is bleh

The more I think about it the more I like b/'fing

I think he still calls with a bunch, and we can safely presume his raising range owns us