QQ versus a bad player (10NL)

My general play in cash is ok, although I feel I consistently get the play in some big pots wrong and this is why I struggle a lot at cash.

Opp here is 61/7/3.8 over 28 hands and I think we can safely assume is a bad player. I think the turn is a fold against a decent player, but a min check-raise here from a bad player here be made with a set, two-pair, a draw or TP.

I realise I should probably pump the turn if I'm going to play this hand further as I'm letting a busted FD or SD on the river off cheap.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($2.85)
Hero ($10.48)
UTG ($10.71)
UTG+1 ($14.13)
UTG+2 ($18.46)
MP1 ($2.81)
MP2 ($4.30)
CO ($4)
BTN ($11.25)

Dealt to Hero Q:heart: Q:club:

UTG calls $0.10, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.10, fold, fold, CO checks, fold, SB calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.60, UTG calls $0.50, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($1.50) 2:heart: 3:club: 9:club:

Hero bets $1, UTG calls $1

TURN ($3.50) 2:heart: 3:club: 9:club: T:heart:

Hero bets $2.40, UTG raises to $4.80, Hero calls $2.40

RIVER ($13.10) 2:heart: 3:club: 9:club: T:heart: 7:diamond:

Hero checks, UTG bets $4.31 (AI), Hero calls $4.08 (AI)

Edit: Result removed

remove showdown if you want good responses.....

For the record, unless you've seen him play huge pots with just TP on the board, I think the turn is a fold.
I may be wrong but many times the fish will get super aggro on the flop and this often has been TPGK. When they call the flop and then raise turn, then I start to wonder.....its a tough fold vs fish....

http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/3618/babyrange.jpg

It doesn't really matter if he's a bad player, no matter how many times you repeat it. What's his range and how does he play it? When you figure that out (which you haven't yet), do a little analysis and decide what you think the best line is in terms of EV. Then post THAT and get comments on your analysis, since that's where you're going to learn to get better.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

It doesn't really matter if he's a bad player, no matter how many times you repeat it. What's his range and how does he play it?

---

Ok, I might be way off here but I think something like { TT-55, ATs-A9s, KcJc, QJs, T9s, Tc8c, 87s, 8c6c, 7c6c, 5c4c, ATo-A9o, QJo, T9o, 87o } might be about right. I don't know how to represent just an Ax of clubs, but this probably forms some of his range too. JJ+ usually raises PF.

Sets - obv these hands fit.

Small pockets (44 - 99) - the flop call fits this betting pattern, but the turn line min-raise doesn't.

Combo draws (like QJc) - these might fit his play, but it doesn't look like it. Why would he min-raise with a draw? I would guess he'd either call or pump it with a hand like this.

Club draw or SD - Same issue as above. It's possible but his play doesn't really fit the hand.

Two pair - The most obv 2 pair hand, T9o, obv fits the betting line.

TP - Something like AT fits the betting conversation if he's loose enough to call with two overs on the flop.


So refining the process a bit more, I'd say his range on the turn is {ATo, ATs, 22, 33, 99, TT, T9} with an outside shot at some kind of combo draw.

Board: 2h 3c 9c Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.742% 61.74% 00.00% 5379 0.00 { TT-99, 33-22, ATs, T9s, ATo, T9o }
Hand 1: 38.258% 38.26% 00.00% 3333 0.00 { QQ }