Fold effective baby flush? 50NL.

Villain is 12/8 over 35 hands and looks pretty straight forward. I can't see sets not raising this flop and playing this slowly. Can I fold here? If not am I looking to call to keep bluffs in his range or as surviva said during our sweat when this hand came up "incase he value bets the river small with a better hand, thus saving us money." I pointed out though that if this is our reasoning for calling the turn we should just be folding since some of his range may stack off on the turn but not on certain rivers so if we think we have sufficient equity, we make more by shipping the turn and lose the same amount by calling the turn and river when we're behind.

Does anyone want to just fold to this turn death line here?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($10.75)
Button ($56.20)
SB ($26.50)
BB ($71.75)
UTG ($43.95)
Hero (MP) ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
1 fold, Hero bets $2, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.40, BB calls $3.40

Turn: ($11.05) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9.50, BB raises $19, Hero raises $35.10 (All-In), BB calls $25.60

River: ($100.25) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $100.25

J hi flush is no where near a baby flush, but you are still drawing dead here 80+% of the time.

Yah, my point is it may aswell be 2h3h because he wont have many if any lower flushes here at all.

marshall, can you explain why carroters is not 100% right in describing his hand as an effective baby flush? In order to be ahead of another flush, we have to suppose that a 12/8 called our stupid 4xbb raise out of position with exactly 86hh or 56hh and chose to delay his checkraise with a vulnerable hand going against our other read of "straightforward".

i agree we essentially have a baby flush here, but we are drawing dead no where near 80% of the time. even though this guy seems like a huge nit, running 12/8 over only 35 hands is just being card dead sometimes, so its not a given he's a big nit overall. its really fucking hard to flop a flush, especially flush over flush, and i am still giddy to get my money in here. even a nit can do this with a set knowing that its so hard to frop a frush.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bode

i agree we essentially have a baby flush here, but we are drawing dead no where near 80% of the time. even though this guy seems like a huge nit, running 12/8 over only 35 hands is just being card dead sometimes, so its not a given he's a big nit overall. its really fucking hard to flop a flush, especially flush over flush, and i am still giddy to get my money in here. even a nit can do this with a set knowing that its so hard to frop a frush.

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THIS

ALSO LET US NOT FORGET OUR 1-OUTER TO THE EMMM EFFFING NUTS (in ho)

My concern is though: who the hell doesn't raise a set on this flop? Like even the biggest fish will still min raise here (for protection) no?

It's just pretty fucked to fold a hand as good as a medium flush basically on 35 hands stats at 50NL and 1/3 of your stack.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

My concern is though: who the hell doesn't raise a set on this flop? Like even the biggest fish will still min raise here (for protection) no?

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eh, people do stupid shit, and the lower the stakes, the more frequent and stupid they are sometimes. This could just be villain waiting for a non heart turn to jamb it in.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

My concern is though: who the hell doesn't raise a set on this flop? Like even the biggest fish will still min raise here (for protection) no?

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Maybe he was just hoping to get it in on a non heart turn vs like pair and FD or naked NFD etc

I'd happily get this in all day.

Cool guys, thanks for the input.

I have a feeling I would have played the hand the same way Carroters. That in it self might be enough reason to fold :). Kinda hard to make this fold against a more or less unknown at 50.

I thought this actually was a fold for a minute and then I stoved a range

Hand 0: 39.773% 39.77% 00.00% 105 0.00 { JhTh }
Hand 1: 60.227% 60.23% 00.00% 159 0.00 { 99, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh }

This range essentially says that he will only play a set this way 1/3rd of the time. I think this may actually not be true, it may be less, but imperfect hand reading will likely make up for it.

Given this range we should not fold, although its certainly close. I just can't get past the 50nl factor where you just see total lunacy even from 12/8's, so even if stove said it was barely a fold I probably wouldn't.

he's too tight preflop for me to want to fold this. He just can't have enough flushes from pre, imo.

His sizing on turn is like 95% a better flush than you. If he shoved I would have snapped though.