50NL: Overpair vs. Drawy board
Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
Button ($50.50)
Hero (SB) ($50.45)
BB ($50)
UTG ($99.19)
UTG+1 ($120.49)
MP1 ($50)
MP2 ($68.01)
MP3 ($49.75)
CO ($86.16)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero bets $2, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.50
Flop: ($4.50) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP2 calls $3
Turn: ($10.50) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $4, MP2 calls $4
River: ($18.50) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $14.50, HERO....?
Hookay, so....
At this point I'm 11/11 through 27 hands and had been blind stealing (ATS 2/3) and stealing limps mostly. Villain was 7/3.5 through 27 hands this session but I had 40 something hands from another session that puts him at 20/3 combined. His fold to cbet was 4/4 but only 1/1 from this session. Didn't really have any reads as to his style but I figured could be tag-fish or limp fish.
PF I'm putting him in a pretty wide range of marginal hands given the limp/call. JJ-22, AJ, AT, and KQ-76s and os. Flop hits, I figure there's a good chance that it hit him but I decided to probe (altho the bet wasn't sized quite that way) and see if he would be scared of the board. He calls, so I figure at that point he's either hit or is drawing. Range is something like JJ-77 maybe some lower pairs not believing I have anything and anything suited that hit. He's probably not continuing with Ax unless it's got the flush draw.
I'm not thrilled about my turn bet in hindsight. It's too small and isn't pushing out anything that hit the flop. It doesn't do anything that the flop bet should have done except build the pot which is the opposite of what I want to do here. I think I should have checked to see what he would do and leave myself with a chance to make a bigger bet on the river if he checks behind me depending on what comes. Checking for showdown value and pot control too. Anyway, the bet there is pretty pointless and not really doing much, I think.
On the river, well, fml. This doesn't hit the spade draw but at this point the boat is well within his range along with straights that may have hit on the turn and I think it's an easy fold. I don't think he's making that bet with TP.
Thoughts?
