I hate these dumb hands 600NL

I get myself in these situations a lot against donks and end up clueless. Over 27 hands he is 50/25 and 3bet 3 times already.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (UTG+1) ($630.15)
MP1 ($600)
MP2 ($572.40)
MP3 ($1339.40)
CO ($883.90)
Button ($1305.45)
SB ($630.75)
BB ($347.30)
UTG ($962.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
1 fold, Hero bets $18, 6 folds, BB raises to $30, Hero calls $12

Flop: ($63) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB bets $42, Hero calls $42

Turn: ($147) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB bets $72, Hero calls $72

River: ($291) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB bets $203.30 (All-In), Hero calls $203.30

Total pot: $697.60 | Rake: $3

(Taking in consideration that there is no history between you)
He needs to bluff more then 28% of the time for you to be good.
If he's not completely bad, he has to put you on a medium/big Ace + QQ/KK (with 1 club) + possibly on AA/77/88 (but you might raise the flop with those).
His turn bet (1/2 pot) could be AA/77/88 or flush but also 2 barriling bluff on the flush card.
Then he pushes the river. He will never push this with a medium/low flush.

==> Either it's high Kc (if he didn't pay attention that the board paired on the river) or AA/77/88 where we're behind. Or a bluff, but which bluff hands can he get to the river with (after having 3bet your raise preflop in EP)? Maybe T9 (but can he 3bet you pre with this)?

I think he rarely shows a bluff here, so I would fold.

I think I play exactly the same on every street without ever feeling too happy about it..... I think the turn is closest to a fold but with the FD I can't fold there.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by badgers

I think I play exactly the same on every street without ever feeling too happy about it..... I think the turn is closest to a fold but with the FD I can't fold there.

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Agreed except i think river seems close. I'd prob fold river.