100NL, tough river decision to make facing a big bet

Two hands on the river.
hand 1: I know i should've 3 bet this in position vs an unknown but my betpot AHK script screwed me up atm. Villian is a 20/18 unknown player. It seemed that his range on the river was pretty strong in 3 way pot,no? I dont want to raise and get it in on this flop though.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($133.30)
UTG+1 ($103.20)
MP1 ($108.55)
MP2 ($100)
Hero (MP3) ($114.15)
CO ($109.70)
Button ($101.50)
SB ($108.15)
BB ($52.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
UTG bets $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $3, 3 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6, 1 fold

Turn: ($21.50) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $14, Hero calls $14

River: ($49.50) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $38, [i]Hero ?

hand 2: sb is a 33/17/4 fish player. UTG 1 is 20/3/1.7 with 0% 3 bet from EP. I was worried about UTG 1, so i just flat called fish donk bet. Meh, it seemed that fish value bet on this river.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($105.95)
CO ($186.65)
Button ($100)
SB ($119.30)
BB ($103)
Hero (UTG) ($100)
UTG+1 ($88.30)
MP1 ($97.25)
MP2 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
Hero bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4, 5 folds, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($13) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets $5, Hero calls $5, UTG+1 calls $5

Turn: ($28) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, 1 fold, SB calls $20

River: ($68) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets $40, Hero ?

In 1 im not sure most villains here are not going to bet the river if they bet the turn - i also think they might bet and then c/c anything that doesnt complete a draw - so if you call turn you're probably calling a river bet which is meh as i think hes limited then to QQ+ (even if its JJ+ then you're not winning enough % to make it a profitable call IMO on river). Its just a spot i dont like if you call turn.
I actually might raise the turn instead because villain has to fold a massive part of his range you are behind and if he calls you have 9999 river cards that you can put him in a tough spot for his stack.
i actually dont 3bet preflop here vs an UTG raiser unless hes bad tagg/fishy

Hand 2 - i raise the flop, UTG+1 will tell you if you are behind (calling is scarier than a raise IMO) and a raise might force out JJ/QQ hands if he didnt 3ball them peflop. SB donk has a FD here or a tp he likes so raising is for value imo as hes calling you down far too much for his own good.
Id be very comfortable with QQ here raising flop but TT is marginal but still has value vs SBs range.

Hand 1: Miff is right that raising the turn is good. But the problem is the pot size ... if you raise, for example, to $36 and villain calls the river size pot will be $93.5 and villain will have about $56 left ... and with whatever he calls turn he will not fold the river. Having said this I'm not sure what's its best ... call or raise turn ...
As played I call river, he value bets 2/3 flop & turn and value bets 4/5 on that river?

Hand 2: Flop: Yes with fish it's not bad to raise.
As played, I might call river ... he just needs to be bluffing 30% of the time. Plus his aggressive ... if he has the flush I'll take note.

What are we repping when we raise the turn in hand one? I think raising turn is spew, I can't see us folding out better hands very much. I think you can fold the turn but call turn/fold to this river bet is ok too imo.

Hand 2 looks ok now call. Raising floip is ok too.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by badgers

What are we repping when we raise the turn in hand one? I think raising turn is spew, I can't see us folding out better hands very much. I think you can fold the turn but call turn/fold to this river bet is ok too imo.

Hand 2 looks ok now call. Raising floip is ok too.

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if someone posted hand 1 from villains point of view with AA UTG vs turn raise we'd all likely be saying puke fold against a player with pokerfans stats as he has a set or is playing a draw in a way that is forcing us into a big decision for stacks - hence i dont think its a worse play than call/call and perhaps marginally better than folding. Call/call just donates to his winrate IMO.

You really think pokerfan plays any set other that JJ in that way? The line looks a bit fos and if villain is in any way a good handreader/aggro I could see him shoving or even just calling the raise with AA/KK here some percent of the time. Seeing as they are the only better hands we have any chance of folding I don't like it...

yeah, i cant rep anything here except JJ if i do raise on the turn. a fairly unknown player probably wouldnt fold anything stronger than QQ. BTW,guys. The fish in hand 2 paused for at least 10 seconds before calling and INSTA bet $40 on this flush river card.Is it the sign of fish drawing to a flush?

2 is close - if i looked and saw 31/17 on my hud id snap call - based on action id probably reluctantly call and down 3bis on the session i call so take that with a pinch of salt.