100nl - btm set vs apparent nit

Villain is 8/6/, 60 AF 14% ATS over 51 hands...so could be anything from nit to tag I suppose.

No history at all.

turn play......?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP1) ($103)
MP2 ($100)
CO ($100)
Button ($101)
SB ($80)
BB ($174.15)
UTG ($102.70)
UTG+1 ($48.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9:diamond:, 9:club:
2 folds, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 10:club:, 9:spade:, K:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO raises to $15, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($37.50) 3:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $14


:S

fwiw he's not even setting himself up for a river jam and if he has the nuts he will prolly bet like 1/2 pot or something gay so at least I lose the minimum by just calling down and if he shoves river he's never bluffing or value betting worse ldo and I can fold...plus I don't really get value from anything by raising the turn other than random XsXs that bluff raised the flop..oh and KTs is perhaps viably in his range.

I think call > raise

thoughts?

if it was me playing this hand i'd probably check/raise here because im a fish with a set and sets are the nuts. but hearing your thoughts on it, i think you're right. this seems pretty tight like TT, JQ, AK. his turn bet seems "scared" but then, if he was scared and wanted you to fold i think 14 is the last size he'd pick. i think call here and decide on the river (assuming its not a T) whether he has AK or Ksxs enough to call again based on his sizing.

i mean there are so few semi-bluffs in his flop range so the only way he's not betting the turn for pure value is if he did pick up a spade draw. because he's a nit i'm guessing his value range is pretty thin.

his range is TT/KK/AA/AK. And he may find an AK fold vs flop heat. So....

as played i gay-check-raise turn

idunno, think its just not enouhg hands on him for me not to put my stack in so i prob 3b turnn

check/raise. it's possible he'll make a mistake and felt KQ/AK/AA, and with the board so drawy and being OOP i prefer jamming over calling the turn and having my set turn into a bluffcatcher/thin value catcher

I made it 38 on the turn. Like/dislike sizing?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

as played i gay-check-raise turn

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

I made it 38 on the turn. Like/dislike sizing?

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$38 is sooo camp in this spot, i love it!