50NL,KK facing flop raise and turn bet

villian is your standard TAG reg running 14/11/3.3 with 3 bet 3% from MP. He only reps 3 sets on the flop vs hero's strong ISO fish range. Plan is CRAI or c/f. c/c, c/c is probably not optimal in these FR games vs normal regs.He might pick up some drawing hands and go for semi-bluffing.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($128.85)
Button ($55.25)
SB ($89.60)
BB ($38)
UTG ($13.80)
UTG+1 ($37.80)
MP1 ($54.25)
Hero (MP2) ($53.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K:diamond:, K:heart:
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50, 4 folds

Flop: ($6.25) 9:club:, 5:diamond:, 3:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO raises $10, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($26.25) J:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $15, Hero ?

on flop 33, 55, 99, TT-QQ maybe KK, AA if he ever doesn't 3bet them
on turn 33, 55, 99, JJ, QQ, KK-AA (discounted again due to lack of preflop 3bet)

it seems super exploitable but i really want to check fold this turn. its so hard for him be semi bluffing on the flop here due to the dryness of the board. his turn bet is setting up a nice potsize for river shove. if you call the turn you pretty much have JJ+ only. perhaps even QQ+ only because you would probably check shove JJ on the turn here am i right?

I think this is TT-QQ a whole lot. The minraise on the flop, the gay turn bet... I would just call and bet the river if he checks.

do you think he checks TT behind on the turn any % of the time?

what, who?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by rpm

KK-AA (discounted again due to lack of preflop 3bet)

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I think this is a mistake. I don't think you can assume that he will auto 3-bet KK, AA. And with the shortstacked donk utg there's a good chance he won't.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oskar

I think this is TT-QQ a whole lot. The minraise on the flop, the gay turn bet... I would just call and bet the river if he checks.

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There's Only $25 left after c/c on the turn. I cant imagine folding when villian shoves on the river.I think c/f or CRAI make lots of sense in this hand, right?

oh yah... when I said call I thought you were in position for some reason. yup, I'd c/r the turn.

This hand makes me want to rethink my flop raise sizing 100bb deep. At least for value. Gayraising the flop still sets up a really ez bet turn, shove river. Whatever he showed down with, the bet sizing is worth a note.