50nl, QQ, 3bet pot overpair on flop

I've only got 158 hands with Villain so the stats can be skewed a bit.

Villain is 13/11.
Fold to 3bet is 58.33%... which is pretty damn low, no?
I have seen villain stack off with the nut FD... but how many are in his range anyway?


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 617885
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $62.45
BTN: $30.00
SB: $43.50
BB: $52.40
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $78.50
Hero (MP1): $69.45
MP2: $52.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with Q :diamond: Q :heart:
UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.25, 5 folds, UTG calls $4.25

Flop: ($13.25) T :spade: 6 :spade: 9 :heart: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $9.75, UTG raises to $24, Hero raises to $63.20 all in, UTG calls $19.75 all in

dont 3bet pre hes prolly opening like 5% of hands from utg ur absolutely fucked postflop really.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

dont 3bet pre hes prolly opening like 5% of hands from utg ur absolutely fucked postflop really.

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I figured he was opening 77+ (...10% or so) because I'd seen him do so in EP, not UTG, but UTG+1 and 2. And if he's willing to call a bunch of my 3bets, some 58% of them, why not get value PF out of QQ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Im_new

I figured he was opening 77+ (...10% or so) because I'd seen him do so in EP, not UTG, but UTG+1 and 2. And if he's willing to call a bunch of my 3bets, some 58% of them, why not get value PF out of QQ?

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77+ is not 10% of hands, but anyway lets say he opens a range of 6% of hands from utg (think postional awareness, not 'oh he's 13/10 so he's opening 10% when he raises pre): 77+,AQo+,AQs+

and let's say he continues about 40% of the time

77+,AQ is 80 hand combinations. He continues with 32 (40% of 80) of those under our assumption, which is a range of: AK+,QQ+ (actually 34 combos).

against that range here's how we stand:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.793% 57.93% 01.86% 172607388 5540034.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.207% 38.35% 01.86% 114253440 5540034.00 { QQ }


keep in mind he's utg, opening a tight range, and when you 3bet he knows you know his range is tight, so raising QQ for value becomes pretty marginal when most players are folding pairs JJ or lower here (he might even fold AK or QQ). why waste the value of flatting QQ when those times he does continue to your 3bet his range is still really strong. we aren't really raising for value here, you're just getting worse hands to fold and building a bigger pot against a range that will be stronger than yours.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

77+ is not 10% of hands, but anyway lets say he opens a range of 6% of hands from utg (think postional awareness, not 'oh he's 13/10 so he's opening 10% when he raises pre): 77+,AQo+,AQs+

and let's say he continues about 40% of the time

77+,AQ is 80 hand combinations. He continues with 32 (40% of 80) of those under our assumption, which is a range of: AK+,QQ+ (actually 34 combos).

against that range here's how we stand:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.793% 57.93% 01.86% 172607388 5540034.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.207% 38.35% 01.86% 114253440 5540034.00 { QQ }


keep in mind he's utg, opening a tight range, and when you 3bet he knows you know his range is tight, so raising QQ for value becomes pretty marginal when most players are folding pairs JJ or lower here (he might even fold AK or QQ). why waste the value of flatting QQ when those times he does continue to your 3bet his range is still really strong. we aren't really raising for value here, you're just getting worse hands to fold and building a bigger pot against a range that will be stronger than yours.

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Gotcha, that makes perfect sense.

Villain raised/called 3bet with 66 for a set. I took note and moved on. Though, I wonder if I took the correct note. I said "-calls 3b wide, c/r set on wet flop."

So, say we encounter this guy again and he pulls a similar move. With our history, we know that he's calling a 3bet with all kinds of stuff. Are we going to 3bet him then, understanding what he's capable of on the flop?

Don't 3bet preflop and as played just fold flop

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Im_new

Gotcha, that makes perfect sense.

Villain raised/called 3bet with 66 for a set. I took note and moved on. Though, I wonder if I took the correct note. I said "-calls 3b wide, c/r set on wet flop."

So, say we encounter this guy again and he pulls a similar move. With our history, we know that he's calling a 3bet with all kinds of stuff. Are we going to 3bet him then, understanding what he's capable of on the flop?

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lmao, if thats the case you can just 3bet this guy's ep opens with crap you can't call pre and just cbet alot. if you 3bet him alot and he's set mining you you are exploiting the fuck out of him.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

if you 3bet
(or isolate him) alot and he's set mining you you are exploiting the fuck out of him.

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And this is how you make money in LP vs most regs