50NL AA 320bb deep

Villain was 21/10/3.2 over 500 hands, with 33% fold to 3bet (6). I'm thinking I should have decided to fold or shove vs the flop raise, and shove is probably better to get paid by KK, QQ, possibly TT and some other draws. We pay off sets and JT but I think it's okay.

On the turn I think he almost always has a nut hand. Villain has not been that aggro/willing to shove at all over several hundred hands. I think most villains at 50NL call shoves wider than they shove..

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($235.25)
BB ($84)
UTG ($124.90)
MP ($194.85)
Button ($161.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A:heart:, A:diamond:
1 fold, MP bets $2.25, Button calls $2.25, Hero raises to $8.50, 2 folds, Button calls $6.25

Flop: ($20.25) 9:diamond:, 7:heart:, 8:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $14, Button raises to $43, Hero calls $29

Turn: ($106.25) Q:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $109.80 (All-In)

Flop is def fold or shove.I would prefer to fold flop. He is gonna be betting almost every turn and u are gonna be folding to 90% of those bets. His range for calling two raises on the button smacks that board and if he doesn't have u beat on the flop then he certainly has tons of equity against ur hand.

I almost never think he has KK/QQ here fwiw.

i hate to bet/fold this flop but it is probably the best line. my problem with betting the flop is that you end up on the turn OOP, still not pot committed on a super drawy board. i was thinking maybe c/r the flop; fold to a flop shove but if you get just called i'd be a lot more comfortable shoving the turn (and you'd have the option). deep stack is tricky tho; some players will probably never be bluffing after a certain pot size, but some regs are willing to run some huge bluffs even at 50/100nl

this hand is somewhat similar; big pair OOP deepstack on scary board etc. i should have 4bet preflop, but look what happened when i took a pot control line with my overpair OOP.. no history or unusual hands before this one

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

MP ($254.15)
Button ($239.55)
SB ($93.85)
BB ($265.25)
Hero (UTG) ($251.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K:spade:, K:diamond:
Hero bets $4, MP raises to $13, 3 folds, Hero calls $9

Flop: ($28.50) 5:spade:, 6:club:, 9:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $18, Hero calls $18

Turn: ($64.50) 10:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $38, Hero calls $38

River: ($140.50) 7:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $99, Hero calls $99

Total pot: $338.50 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero had K:spade:, K:diamond: (one pair, Kings).
MP had A:spade:, Q:diamond: (high card, Ace).
Outcome: Hero won $336.50

That river call looks really thin without a read.. Are you calling because most of a good player's 3betting range pre missed the board? Because tons of regs (not synonymous with good) are 3betting lots of pps and drawing hands which hit sets or a straight here.

I would not be happy getting it in with 320 bb's on this flop with your hand.

I fold to the flop raise and as played I fold to the turn shovel. It's not like he's doing this with 10-10 J-J really ever, he likely 3B's QQ OTB, you have a blocker to his nut flush/overs. FWIW he also prob doesn't potshove 10-J on the turn if it's even in his range at all.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

i should have 4bet preflop, but look what happened when i took a pot control line with my overpair OOP.. no history or unusual hands before this one

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If he's 3B'ing the button wide then you should either be 4B'ing or c/r'ing a very high% of flops. This deep a 4B is almost mandatory. If he's not 3B'ing wide then you should be 4B'ing for value against a strong range. Going into c/c mode is a recipe for disaster IMO

You're in a tough spot when he raises the flop.

His stats suggest that he hates to fold to a 3bet, especially in position, and he's not particularly aggro overall. I would think that 77,88,99,JTs are all consistent with his play preflop, and his line on the flop suggests one of those hands is particularly likely. I think there is some chance he plays KK/QQ this way sometimes, but usually not so you'd have to discount them.

Do you have any reads on how he plays his draws? I think quite a few players at 50NL would raise a flush or open ended straight draw on that flop (this becomes far less likely with the turn action, but I think our key decision is on the flop here).

If you don't think he plays a flush or open ended straight draw this way on the flop, you need to fold I think. If he does play a draw that way, you
probably have enough equity to shove over given there's only 13 combos of sets or straights (given our range above) and plenty more than that of flush and straight draws.

If you think he is likely to bet, an alternative line may be to check-raise the flop. That puts the pressure back on him to make a decision for his stack, probably allows you to get away relatively cheaply (~$50) when you are way behind (because he will call or shove over) and saves you from a very sticky spot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by caddie444

If he's 3B'ing the button wide then you should either be 4B'ing or c/r'ing a very high% of flops. This deep a 4B is almost mandatory. If he's not 3B'ing wide then you should be 4B'ing for value against a strong range. Going into c/c mode is a recipe for disaster IMO

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I fully agree. I don't want to be playing KK OOP this deep in a 3bet pot if I can help it, so I'm 4betting this to about $37 preflop about 100% of the time.

b/f is the only possible flop line obv