2/4 - AKo 150bb deep vs. aggro reg

Villain runs 26/22/4.9 and is losing over a pretty good sample. He folds to 3bets a ton (79%) and doesn't 4bet that much (1.6%). My notes say that he'll call cbets with any pair and will valuebet pretty thin on the river. He's also Russian.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($773)
Button ($195.50)
SB ($402)
Hero (BB) ($588.70)
UTG ($597.75)
MP ($608.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K:spade:, A:heart:
2 folds, CO bets $14, 2 folds, Hero raises to $48, CO calls $34

Flop: ($98) 4:spade:, A:spade:, 9:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $66, CO calls $66

Turn: ($230) 9:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $140, CO calls $140

River: ($510) Q:heart: (2 players)
Hero... ($335 behind)

I'd still shove, not real happy about it but i can't really see doing anything else.

Kind of nasty the way the board ran out. Is it too nitty to C/F?

Interesting game theory spot where it could actually be optimal to shove even if you are rarely called by worse, if the alternative is that you check and he bets his whole range, forcing you to lose the pot every time.

Really no clue what I'd do though.

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Originally Posted by Renton

Interesting game theory spot where it could actually be optimal to shove even if you are rarely called by worse, if the alternative is that you check and he bets his whole range, forcing you to lose the pot every time.

Really no clue what I'd do though.

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If opp bets his whole range it's obv better to c/c than shove (we get it in either way, but against his whole range rather than his calling range). But I doubt villain really bets his whole range.

I think c/f is good here

Interesting thought by renton... Sometimes i can tell by timing what he more likely has. You play 6 tables right?

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Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

You play 6 tables right?

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Yeah, I generally play 6. Calls were pretty quick on all streets.

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Originally Posted by Juked07

If opp bets his whole range it's obv better to c/c than shove (we get it in either way, but against his whole range rather than his calling range). But I doubt villain really bets his whole range.

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I think you're missing the EV Hero gets when villain folds after Hero shoves.

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Originally Posted by Juked07

But I doubt villain really bets his whole range.

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A good player should, considering hero doesn't have a c/c range here.

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Originally Posted by Robb

I think you're missing the EV Hero gets when villain folds after Hero shoves.

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No I'm not. Let's assume he shoves his entire range if we check. If we get it in by shoving, and he folds some of the time, we're folding out the bad hands he would have bluffed with. This is clearly bad. Now we're only getting it in vs his calling range, rather than his whole range. I understand you're talking about his hands that beat us and fold if we shove. But there are far fewer of those than the hands that we beat which shove when he's shoving any two there.

The point is that FE is actually not equity at all if he's shoving his entire range and we have value vs enough of the hands that fold to our shove, but would shove if we check.

And Renton, I guess this is an interesting spot for leveling. Hero may not have a c/c range usually, but if he knows that villain is shoving any 2, then he should definitely have a c/c range. It's over my head.

I am sure that a shove is better than a c/c. But I am not sure which is better, a shove or a c/f.

I really don't like c/f here. If I'm villain and I have any ace here, I'd assume that hero probably wouldn't check 9x or AQ and likely not AK. I'd shove any Ax I have here, most of the time, given that spades bricked, and I can potentially take him off a chop.

Villains stats seem as though he's aggro enough to not want to c/f here too, since he'd likely play similar to as described above. Against a more passive player c/f seems a lot more reasonable.

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Originally Posted by Robb

I think you're missing the EV Hero gets when villain folds after Hero shoves.

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What are you talking about this makes no sense?

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Originally Posted by Renton

A good player should, considering hero doesn't have a c/c range here.

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This makes no sense to me either. I don't understand how you can make such a statement. Elaborate.

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

This makes no sense to me either. I don't understand how you can make such a statement. Elaborate.

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Well, if we feel opp has no air in his range when we check to him on the river, I'd find it much better to have a checking range of air on the river because he's so unlikely to bluff.

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

This makes no sense to me either. I don't understand how you can make such a statement. Elaborate.

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Villain should bet any hand that is less than likely to be good, to fold out better hands, and should bet any hand thats likely to be good, to balance his bluffs and to possibly get value from worse assuming we're wrong about hero never c/cing.

wrong about hero never c/cing? u said hero never has a c/c range.

if we had a nine here (98ss or whatever) are we really shoving this river, if opp is supposedly shoving his whole range to a check?

I guess its a leveling thing. I'm probably wrong, and I only suggested the game theory thing as a possibility and didn't really think it through to determine whether it applies in this specific case.