Double Barreling with a Scare Card
I was watching No Limit Holdem Poker Video - Micro Stakes: Full Ring by Bigspenda - 2 and took note of the very end when he was talking about how if you double barrel with a scare card your opponent only has to fold like 2 out of 5 times for the move to be profitable and it got me thinking.
Lets say we aren't holding much against a tight player with an Ac9c8h flop and we are first to act.
If we attempt to represent the ace and bet half pot that gives 2:1 pot odds so we have to be fairly sure villain will fold more than 1/3 of the time for this to be a profitable play.
On the other hand, we just bet half pot and the villain now has 3:1 pot odds to call, so he only needs to know that we will bluff 1/4 of the time when a scare card pops, right? So if he has a FD with 4.1:1 odds, assuming he doesnt have implied odds, and he beats without flush if we bluffed then he loses 75% of the time. 75% of his 4.1:1 FD odds makes it about 3:1, so then he goes from losing value in this call to breaking even.
Right? I mean then again I'm pretty new to this crazy math stuff..and I made a number of assumptions for the point.. and it is pretty late... and im slightly buzzed.. but it seems like theoretically if you begin to bluff with a scare card, it can cut you down.
