My standard ridiculousness: Thoughts?

Basically, im playing a passive tight HU SNG regular. I notice his timing on the flop call is pretty average. His timing on his turn call however is very very quick, within one or two seconds. I interpret this as a timing tell that there is absolutely no way he has an 8x or better. I feel like im 99% sure, but am assigning too high a accuracy on my hand reading ability?

PokerStars Game #45060476840: Tournament #279653324, $330+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2010/06/04 14:47:40 ET
Table '279653324 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: heybude (1530 in chips)
Seat 2: Cr4zy_Serb (1470 in chips)
heybude: posts small blind 10
Cr4zy_Serb: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to heybude [5h 9d]
heybude: raises 20 to 40
Cr4zy_Serb: calls 20
*** FLOP *** [4c 8s 8h]
Cr4zy_Serb: checks
heybude: bets 40
Cr4zy_Serb: calls 40
*** TURN *** [4c 8s 8h] [Kd]
Cr4zy_Serb: checks
heybude: bets 120
Cr4zy_Serb: calls 120
*** RIVER *** [4c 8s 8h Kd] [4h]
Cr4zy_Serb: checks
heybude: bets 1330 and is all-in (approx 3 times the pot).

seems like he ll fold pretty quick

If his timing dropped on the turn call that might show that he got what he was hoping for rather than he didn't?

if he's tight passive then it seems like you wouldn't need to over bet so large to get him off his apparently weak range given his turn timing.

I have played with many tight passive players and they can be the most irritating to play with because they are difficult to put on a hand because they usually wont come out of the closet on their hand until the very end

this type of board will split a high percentage of the time and it seems unlikely he would call with an ace in his hand. It does look like he may have ace rag here but based on the timing
if he did call very quick on the turn, most of the time this means they are still drawing. I will sometimes call quick when i hit my out to disguise the strength of my hand, but it is something you must be prepared to do with little hesitation. it is likely that he has done this with a sneaky 4? probably not, but i wouldn't complete disregard it either.

Thing is your either beat or its a chop. if you are beat is it with the ace? would he call a massive raise with an ace? given his character prob not. but the bet does not make any sense and if he is key to that then he might call even if it is a chop. i would bet around the size of the pot.

Why do you all interpret a quick call as meaning that he is still drawing?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

if he's tight passive then it seems like you wouldn't need to over bet so large to get him off his apparently weak range given his turn timing.

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I like this but I'm guessing the over shove was for balance reasons. If villain is capable of folding a K here then I would assume this is profitable.

u gotta be right 80%

gotta be right 71% for 900...

seems ok i guess

Easy check behind.