10NL - KQs on Qhi board

Villain is 40/30 over a hundred hands, RFI from UTG is 31%

€0.05/€0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (€12.71)
UTG+1 (€7.15)
CO (€10.21)
BTN (€14.28)
SB (€11.62)
Hero (€10)

Pre-Flop: (€0.15, 6 players) Hero is BB :qd: :kd:
UTG raises to €0.30, 4 folds, Hero calls €0.20

Flop: :8d: :qc: :ts: (€0.65, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets €0.30, Hero calls €0.30

Turn: :6s: (€1.25, 2 players)
Hero bets €0.80, UTG calls €0.80

River: :ks: (€2.85, 2 players)
Hero bets €1.80, UTG goes all-in €11.31, €6.8 to Hero (€6.8)?

Preflop: He's raising here with a range of {22+, A7o+, A2s+, K8+, Q9+, J9+, 54s+, 86s+} I think I've got decent equity to continue against this guy, even OOP.

Flop: I bink a queen like a champion, and check to him expecting him to bet a decent amount of the time with his air and his value hands, probably checking behind is 8's, T's and pocket pairs. So his range is like {A7o, A9o, AJo+, A2s-A7s, A9s, AJs+, K9, KJ+, Q9+, J9, 54s-76s, 97s, 88, TT, QQ, KK+} against which I have a boatoad of equity so easy call.

Turn: Here I don't really want to check it to him as I think I get a bunch of value from his calling range, whereas if I check I risk him betting tiny (and c/ring looks like mega strength on my part) again, or even worse just checking behind. So I lead out about 2/3 pot, expecting him to call with queens, J9 for the straight, KJ for the OESD and spade flush draws. I thought I would have heaps of equity against this range, but I'm well under 50%. Even if I assume he'd raise sets and overpairs, I still don't have 50% equity against his calling range.

River: here I make two pair, but the flush also comes in. I bet with the intention of folding, as I was thinking I'd get value from queens and the likes of KJ, and thinking he'd only raise with a flush. When he shoves over, it's a fairly easy fold.

so whaddya wanna know? all streets look good to me.

Mostly curious about the turn bet, I guess.

In theory the turn bet might not be bad because his calling range might very well be > his betting range. I don't do it because it confuses the villain and in turn he might do something that confuses you.

Solid reasoning itt ino!

Only time I would consider it is if villain religiously stop and goes as pfr.

Main reason why I don't like the line is because it sucks donkey dick as a bluff because of the lack of threat compared to a c/r on the flop which is cheaper and more dangerous because you can make him play for stacks.
Most regs realize this in some way and their c/c, donk range is entirely for value. Only time you see it as a bluff is by obvious beginning players.
Now ino... lol-balance at lol-NL, but I don't like to take completely unbalanced lines in any spot against semi-regs because if your opponent has half a brain he can exploit that massively and who knows when you will figure that out and re-adjust.

As played I puke/fold river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oskar

In theory the turn bet might not be bad because his calling range might very well be > his betting range. I don't do it because it confuses the villain and in turn he might do something that confuses you.

Solid reasoning itt ino!

Only time I would consider it is if villain religiously stop and goes as pfr.

Main reason why I don't like the line is because it sucks donkey dick as a bluff because of the lack of threat compared to a c/r on the flop which is cheaper and more dangerous because you can make him play for stacks.
Most regs realize this in some way and their c/c, donk range is entirely for value. Only time you see it as a bluff is by obvious beginning players.
Now ino... lol-balance at lol-NL, but I don't like to take completely unbalanced lines in any spot against semi-regs because if your opponent has half a brain he can exploit that massively and who knows when you will figure that out and re-adjust.

As played I puke/fold river.

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interesting. so is this to say we should mix up our OOP bluff lines more between c/c flop,donk turn and c/r flop? or is it that check/call, donk line just sucks straight up and should only be used against fish who will never realise that we only ever do this for value? or, equally as plausible, i completely misunderstood your post.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oskar

In theory the turn bet might not be bad because his calling range might very well be > his betting range. I don't do it because it confuses the villain and in turn he might do something that confuses you.

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I can't believe but it looks like I agree entirely with something oskar said.

I'm wondering if this guy is even a semi reg, his stats actually look kind of more like an aggro-ish fish at 10NL, and his flop sizing compounds that he's likely bad. I definitely do like taking contol of this hand on the turn because he's calling this lightly most of the time and may checkback some Tx hands etc that have sd value, or even spades.

Here's a likely range he'll continue with on the turn

Board: Qc Ts 8d 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.568% { KdQd }
Hand 1: 43.432% { 66+, AsKs, AQs, AsJs, ATs, As9s, As8s, Ad7d, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, AQo+, ATo, KQo, KTo, QTo+, JTo }

I think it's easily this wide and would infact weight it more towards marginal hands due to his flop sizing, giving you more equity than this.

River is a snap fold, and I'm not even puking.