200nl - calling range spot

villain is a 14/11 regular, folds to 3bets about 70% overall.

my image is something like 15/12, not too out of line, straightforward etc.

not a spot I am 3bet bluffing a ton and I think he knows this so given his position he might be tempted to set mine here from time to time but I would assume he would be more likely to flat 99 than 77 and 77 more likely than 44 etc. given that he has more sd value vs pairs I can make with my bluffs (i.e. 75s)

fwiw, he called preflop really fast so I'm almost not evening considering him having AK/AA/KK (he does 4bet preflop so he would at least have to consider the option?)...I think he could still flat AQ here (especially if suited). And of course pairs would make up a reasonable portion of his range. He's not a real big floaty type so I almost expect him to rarely have an ace here unless its like AQs that flopped a bdfd.

he's an okay winning reg fwiw but he puts in massive volume so not sure if he's really thinking about turning a hand like 88 or T9s into a bluff here or what...he snap shoved the turn so maybe I'm just over thinking this.

as for 3bet sizing pre I usually make it 5-$19 oop but was lazy :P


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($205)
UTG+1 ($211.30)
MP1 ($344.70)
MP2 ($193.50)
MP3 ($220.95)
CO ($218)
BTN ($276.15)
SB ($200)
Hero ($206.85)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is BB X X
4 folds, MP3 raises to $5, 3 folds, Hero raises to $20, MP3 calls $15

Flop: :7h: :4c: :9d: ($41, 2 players)
Hero bets $26, MP3 calls $26

Turn: :ah: ($93, 2 players)
Hero bets $52, MP3 goes all-in $174.95, $108.85 to Hero ($108.85)?

Doesn't make a lot of sense. Don't think he would plan a bluff that way. Prolly 44, 77, 99. Wouldn't be too happy calling unless I had 99, AA.
And you know I'm a spewtard. I just don't see how he can't have AK beat here the way it played out.

97 is the worst one i call with... although it might be bad

who is villain?

combo draws are not out of the question here for villain: 56h, 68h, T8h, JTh etc.

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

who is villain?

combo draws are not out of the question here for villain: 56h, 68h, T8h, JTh etc.

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redA's full

meh, seems to me that 44 is a call here (close tho) and AK is a fold. 79 would be a gross decision to make and i'd err on the side of folding - especially given your read that you don't expect him to have AK very often here.

i have a tendency to fold things like quads though, so....

I'd get it in with AQ in this spot tbh. He's a terribad reg that tilts easily. Your line looks like AK and he knows this and knows that you know this, thus thinking he can get you to fold. I'm telling you, this is a combo draw like so much.

It looks like he actually has a decent price here for set mining.. 13-1 if I'm not mistaken? Since he possibly views your range as strong I think set mining is fine.

It all depends on whether you think he is capable of a semi bluff on the turn or getting ax type hands all in here.

We have to be ahead like 35% of the time for this to break even?

Anyways, Im not a big fan of folding anything with showdown value in 3-bet pots after sticking half my stack in.. so I am calling here with a wide range.

When doing these calling range hands just leave out hands not in our range... and I guess AK I don't know the line is terrible

well given that we need to be good like 25% I was thinking b/c QQ since I don't expect him to have Ax like ever....he's gotta be turning like 88/TT/JJ/combo draws into a bluff some of the time given bankitdrews description I would think?

also lol @ this being good odds to set mine

It needs a very specific read to assume that a villain will bluffshove middle pairs here. It's a very scary spot to bluff at because your c-bet bluffing range just got there... obviously, and he would have to count on you to bet/fold JJ+ on the turn... so he needs to know that you're barrelling overpairs to the flop when an overcard hits. If you don't have that kind of history I think it's just way too much guesswork imo.
He probably slowplayed a set. it's a bad turn to raise, but then again he probably is bad.

I think most of his range is an ace actually

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

I think most of his range is an ace actually

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if that's the case you're right about his line being terrible since now I can't consider 3barreling.

13-1 isn't good odds to set mine against a strong range? I do as little as 10-1 in the right spots, multiway etc. There are other ways to win post flop besides hitting sets.

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Originally Posted by Outlaw

13-1 isn't good odds to set mine against a strong range? I do as little as 10-1 in the right spots, multiway etc. There are other ways to win post flop besides hitting sets.

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I wouldn't assume m2m has a strong range here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Outlaw

13-1 isn't good odds to set mine against a strong range? I do as little as 10-1 in the right spots, multiway etc. There are other ways to win post flop besides hitting sets.

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sry bout this but lol

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Originally Posted by Illfavor

I wouldn't assume m2m has a strong range here.

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He said his image was strong for 3-bets

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Originally Posted by ZwiFT

sry bout this but lol

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"lol" doesn't really explain anything.

You must be playing a different game than me :p

99 against RAF

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Outlaw

He said his image was strong for 3-bets



"lol" doesn't really explain anything.

You must be playing a different game than me :p

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you can't call to setmine getting 10:1 even under the most favorable conditions. I don't think anyone needs to take the time to explain why here. Start a thread if you're unclear about that.