JTs flops fd and 2 overs facing large c/r.

Villain is 25/19 reg 10.8%, 3 bet, who I've been warring with a fair amount. He's 3 bet me 4 times this session and I've 4 bet him 3 times to which he's folded each time. Idk if he's pissed with me or w/e I've been really active, squeezing a bunch. He's raised c bets only 12% in the 650 hand sample I have with him.

It's tempting to shove here but I'm not sure he's actually light that often given I'll check back this flop some what, fwiw though I c bet a lot in general so this will likely show on his HUD. If his range is draws and sets It's a fairly easy fold since there'll be more better fds than worse ones for sure with KcQc and Acx.

Calling seems horrid.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($118.50)
Button ($100)
SB ($129.60)
BB ($169.50)
Hero (UTG) ($150.25)
MP ($71.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J:club:, 10:club:
Hero bets $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, 3 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 8:club:, 6:spade:, 2:club: (2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO raises $22, Hero?

you can't fold the flop. the RIO issue shouldn't be that significant, especially given the dynamic you describe. call flop seems by far the best play

Can you elaborate on why you wanna flat here?

Is it because you think we have great implied odds vs a range of mainly sets? Because given this prcie, and only being able to see one more card likely when he has a set, our overall odds seem pretty dire to me. Plus all the countless times we fold the turn when he jus has the nfd or a worse fd or maybe air (if you think that's in his range) Not to mention the times we make a flush and loose a stack to better flushes.

Calling to shove blank or w/e turns also seems bad if that's your thinking because with this sizing I doubt he actually has air all that often.

Calling seems pretty awful to me.

yea i think 86s/22+ are stacking off when we catch our flush, and those combinations plus worse flushes outweight the KTcc/Axc hands in his range. i agree we probably never get to see the turn + river once he raises this flop. however i think he also raises the flop with 99/8x, which means if we turn a Jack or Ten we can call the turn again, and decide on the river.

I disagree pretty hugely with your last point about him raising 99, 8x here. Non retarded regs just don't do this very often, Especially on drawy boards where they could never justify raise/folding for value.

yeah i was wrong to think those hands would raise/call this flop; i read too much into the aggressive dynamic. i've been watching too many HU vids :)

and i still like calling the flop because i do think there's air in his range. given he has been aggressive and this is a board that he knows you know hits his range, i'd expect him to bluff raise the flop. I'm not sure he would run a bluff for stacks though, because i don't think he'd expect you to fold QQ+. though because he may not continue his bluff past the flop you may be correct to fold the flop.

I think a lot of times when someone has been 3betting you a lot, and then they call you pre, they feel inclined to bluff raise the flop to steal it.

If he had sized it smaller, I would probably 3bet this hand. His sizing is kind of scary though, I might just dump this now.

he has 11 combos for value, and a ton of bluffs (assuming you have somewhat high UTG open % + higher flop cbet %), all possible overcards gutshots/oesd, not sure if he raises or calls with FDs/nutFDs. I guess you can call (he`s gonna fire on any club which is god, he`s gonna fire on J/T w bluffs a ton as well), you can than CR the turn A/K/Q but that might a bit of FPS

I think folding flop is probably best here.. I dont think theres much FE in this spot and he can have ur draw dominated a lot of times as well..

you could fold, but calling seems better

First of all, when you call and do make your flush it is likely you get paid off since he'll expect that most flush draws have nice combos with them that would 3-bet the flop so he's not going to be snapfolding a set/twopair or JJ or something. Your pair outs are also potentially live and folding just seems too weak and 3-betting seems marginally worse than calling since you're not getting called by worse much and there's not a ton to win yet. Calling and c/shoving any decent turn (any club/7,9,Q) seems alright since at least then you profit most vs his air range. And people sometimes give up after bluff raising flop so you can take down the river with a 2/3 pot bet when you miss repping overpairs that would take the same line.