50 NL what is the plan??

villain was 39/12/3,2 after 60 hands (this is his first c/r)

- what is the plan with this hand??


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed)

MP ($13.45)
CO ($70.60)
Hero (Button) ($54.95)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($145.65)
UTG ($50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
3 folds, Hero bets $1.75, 1 fold, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB raises to $9

I don't really like just calling this c/r since a lot of turn cards will be bad (spades, aces, jacks and sixes) and will stop him putting money in the pot with Qx so I'd probably make it $23 and call a shove.

Rough range for a c/r.
88-77, AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,KQs,Q8s+,JsTs,J s9s,Js8s,Ts9s,Ts8s,9s7s,9s6s,87s,8s6s,7s6s,7s5s,6s 5s,6s4s,KQo,Q8o+,J9o+,T9o,87o

Had you observed any of his tendencies for the first 60 hands?
From experience I find that fish with stats of like 49/5 and 60/10 etc tend to call down with draws in these spots rather than C/R. Obviously each fish is different but in general...

As played I'd raise/get it in, I mean there are a ton of bad turn cards for you and if he is doing this with like Q10 you can also lose action.

'raise get it in cuz there are bad turn cards'

great reason

This is my problem with this hand:

if I raise
- he folds all his bluffs
- and I will be commited against range of sets, FD with ace and monster draws

if I call
- there are many bad turns (like you all said)


I think calling and playing poker on turn is better (but what is the plan on concrete turn cards, if he bets again), but I dont know..........

I dont mind folding here actually. Lol @ above range as well. His range is far far more narrow than that. Like 87, 77 88, KQ, AQ. KQ and AQ he may not play this way either. He has
maasive combo draws as well. In a spot where every card that is a 6 or higher and not a K sucks for us I dont mind a fold here at all.

60 hands for preflop numbers are not reads either.

Inb4 nit bodysnatcher pic.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

'raise get it in cuz there are bad turn cards'

great reason

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Ok fair point it's not really a good reason to get it in.

Assume he c/r's sets (88/77) monster draws (JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s and a few others), maybe a good Qx and a small % of air. I'm not sure someone like this will barrel a blank turn with air or a draw often so I don't know about calling a turn bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

'raise get it in cuz there are bad turn cards'

great reason

---

solid advice.

Is 2 his 3bet?

If his 3bet is that low, its definitely possible he has more combos of AQ than other people might have.

This is also button vs blinds, so it's conceivable people do this light here.

We have the Ks so we can also continue on a spade turn. I don't mind just calling this, and call most turns and re-eval river.

If you have been opening a lot of buttons, and he has been calling and giving up to your cbets a lot, it's also possible he's doing this light just out of frustration/to take it down.

I should probably write it with "." not with ",". It is 3.2 and it is aggression factor. I have no other info about this hand, because it was at the end of my session and I was little bit tired (bad concentration).

Thank you very much

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HoopyDude

Ok fair point it's not really a good reason to get it in.

Assume he c/r's sets (88/77) monster draws (JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s and a few others), maybe a good Qx and a small % of air. I'm not sure someone like this will barrel a blank turn with air or a draw often so I don't know about calling a turn bet.

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well, if he's c/r'ing wide enough for you to be good against his range but won't fire the turn unless he has you beat then you could peel the raise and see what happens on the turn.

but since his flop range is probably weighted way more towards value than semibluffs/bluffs folding may be best depending on the range you give him and how you predict future streets to play out.

You'll be able to decipher his range far more accurately on the turn based on timing/sizing/the actual turn card, so I'd call.

clear call

it does look like a call

i think you should only lean slightly towards getting it in here if you're oop but IP you gotta just call this.

as said sure there are some turn cards that you're not super happy about, so just be aware of that and have a plan on the flop: ie if turn cards are xxx then i'm gonna be more cautious, and maybe call turn/fold river and if he checks turn just bet for value etc...

one important thing i've learned in these spots is that if villain is capable of bluffing we instantly remove any chance of further bluffs by reraising these spots, so calling has so many more advantages, saying that if he has QT/QJ or whatever here and the turn scaring him isn't a good reason at all...