NL5 : flushdraw + overcards = go broke ?

Hello,

Villain is unknown (10 hands only). His donk bet and reraise could represent a set or an overpair I think; but it could be a lot of others hands like a 9 or a flushdraw.

So is the all in ok, or is it to optimistic ?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($2.02)
CO ($2.44)
Button ($10.08)
SB ($4.85)
BB ($5.47)
Hero (UTG) ($5)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A:club:, K:club:
Hero bets $0.20, 3 folds, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.45) 2:diamond:, 4:club:, 9:club: (2 players)
SB bets $0.20, Hero raises $0.60, SB raises $1.25, Hero raises $4.20 (All-In)

YouTube - Super Mario Bros 3 - Beginner's Circle Edition
PokerStove: Poker Software and Analysis

with no stats or reads i threw together a calling range of
JJ-99,44,22,A9s,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc,6c5c,A9o
and you have 47% equity vs this range....if you add 2 or 3 more flush draws then you probably have over the 50% equity needed for this to be +ev...also you probably make up for this with the tiny amount of FE you have against hands like 88,77,T9,89 (not sure if im applying Fold Equity right here), i guess i like the shove because any turn that misses us is going to cut our equity in half making getting it in on the turn a lot less EV+ where as a 3rd flush card, an A, or a K on the turn could prevent him from stacking off.

Ship it holler.
Phillies post is fine and even if villain open ships the flop you have to call w/ the 47% equity philly came up with cause of dead money etc etc.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

YouTube - Super Mario Bros 3 - Beginner's Circle Edition

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Well done, spoon.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

YouTube - Super Mario Bros 3 - Beginner's Circle Edition

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Awesome.

Scene it.

JKDS demands new 'put ur opponent an a gd range' videos

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

YouTube - Super Mario Bros 3 - Beginner's Circle Edition

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Very nice, thank you :D

I don't think I could say that you played the hand incorrectly, however I slightly prefer a more cautious approach when possible. In this, case your opp made it nearly impossible to practice pot control. And of course this is a very powerful drawing hand and you are NOT folding.


Could you have just called at your two choice points on the flop ? I don't think I can quite advocate that...so it's hard for me to find fault, despite my stated preference above.


So now that you're all in you can hope your opp has just a pair rather than a set,two pair or AA/KK. If both your A and K are good outs you have 15 outs and are a slight favorite. Otherwise you are an underdog. It's only in the very, very rare case that your opp has naked flush draw that you are in good shape. We can pretty much rule that out.


On the positive side your stack isn't all that deep -- only 100BBs, so all in all it's ok.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Scene it.

JKDS demands new 'put ur opponent an a gd range' videos

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I'll add it to my to-do list.

I certainly agree that putting your opp on a range is a critically important skill and always an important mental exercise for the serious poker player. However, in this case I wonder if anymore than a rudimentary analysis would change the recommendations on how to play the hand.


If we KNEW that our opp had a set (set of 9s seems especially likely), it might impact our play. I would imagine that we would all agree that we should just call on the flop in that case. True ?


However, once we make the rudimentary analysis that our opps range include some significant portion of non-set hands -- that might be all we need to ship in the rest of our stack hoping to capture what small fold equity might be available.


Also when it comes to range analysis I wonder if it is useful to compare one's at the table analysis with some more careful evaluations (like a stove analysis). My - quickie at the table analysis breaks the range into sets and other hands. If I blend sets with pair hands I get about 1.5 and a bit to one. A bit worse than the stove analysis. So my quick range analysis might need some work.


FWIW, if I had to pick just one hand, I'd pick a set of 9s.

If he does this with 88, 1010-JJ, ship..

Otherwise, call getting 3-1 and punish his bad play. Fold turn if ya miss.

BTW, was it 44 or 22?

22