Interesting bluff catch possibility

Please read entire analysis because I feel the reads are important here.

Opp is a HU reg who is a standard reg. I know he thinks highly of me as a player because he has told me this in the past. I have been playing very aggressively so far, he had been winning but has quickly began losing it all back. He is now down a little under a buy in.

PokerStars Game #46816867669: Hold'em No Limit ($25/$50 USD) - 2010/07/15 14:19:06 PT [2010/07/15 17:19:06 ET]
Table 'Bellona VI' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Opp ($5347.50 in chips)
Seat 2: heybude ($8947 in chips)
Opp: posts small blind $25
heybude: posts big blind $50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to heybude [Kh Kd]
Opp: raises $100 to $150
heybude: raises $350 to $500
Opp: calls $350
*** FLOP *** [3s 2d Qc]
heybude: bets $450
Opp: calls $450
*** TURN *** [3s 2d Qc] [Ks]
heybude: bets $1150
Opp: calls $1150
*** RIVER *** [3s 2d Qc Ks] [7s]
heybude

He's been calling my pre 3bets pretty loosely, I'd estimate only folding something like 40% of the time, opening 75% preflop, although I haven't checked quite yet as its still early in the session. He has folded to my flop cbets moderately.

My guess is that he would not raise this flop with air against me because I am capable of rebluffing and because I'm "good." Therefore, if he continues in the hand with air, he would float.

Now obviously this is a pretty standard 3 barrel with this hand given how obvious the turn and river cards are as good barreling cards. Given I've played very aggro so far I could also inspire a hero call. But given I have a semi deck crippling hand and my suspicion about him floating is checking the river and calling a shove better than betting?

I feel as though you having KKK is the same difference as yo have AK here in terms of you crippling the deck. The lack of K's he can have doesn't seem to be that relevant?

I think from his perspective, the K could polarize your range quite a bit such that most of his range is going to be somewhat hero calling anyhow.

I like a bet. I don't think he has enough air to check.

65, 54, A5, A4, JT, AJ, AT, some other random junk maybe ?

I think of all of these the only particularly likely hand is 54, sometimes with spades or the other hands with spades

43/55 type stuff and Q9 type stuff check i think.

my intuition in this spot is that we should be checking hands like 88-JJ, Qx-QJ and AJ to check/call some non zero %. with your hand it seems like a jam is much better unless you have some sick sort of timing tell.

I def like a shove.

Results: He had 97s, no draw, hit the 7 on the river and hero called. I had a very strong feeling on the river he double floated me, Cy can confirm I said those very words aloud. However, I couldn't justify sure enough logic for the feeling so I shoved.

yea i mean another big merit of jamming is that on Q32K a lot of his double floats are going to be A high of some kind which has the option of hero calling river

I think if you want to induce something I'd rather c/c turn and river instead of bet turn c/c river.

Shove he has 2 pair surely.

I'd jam, definitely feel it's good to balance your barreling tendencies plus I just don't see that many floats in his range, you'd have to have some sort of read on how often he'd turn say qx into a bluff before c/cing over betting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Opp is a HU reg who is a standard baddish bum hunting reg. I know he thinks highly of me as a player because he has told me this in the past. I have been playing very aggressively so far, he had been winning but has quickly began losing it all back. He is now down a little under a buy in.

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I know I'm in late, but perfect set-up for him to make a hero call. Sounds like he's trying to get unstuck and maybe down on himself. It's instinctive to lay off the aggression and call more when this happens.