1/2 - AKo on monotone flop, no draw

Villain is a Norwegian red pro, big loser over a large sample size in my db, running 25/21/2.8, raises 21% utg, barrels 45/55/53% on each street. My notes say that he thinks I'm a huge station. But I've been playing with him on several tables for awhile and haven't gotten out of line.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (MP) ($306.90)
CO ($173)
Button ($207)
SB ($102.90)
BB ($207.30)
UTG ($268.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A:spade:, K:club:
UTG bets $7, Hero calls $7, CO calls $7, 3 folds

Flop: ($24) 10:heart:, 6:heart:, A:heart: (3 players)
UTG bets $16, Hero calls $16, 1 fold

Turn: ($56) 8:club: (2 players)
UTG bets $40, Hero calls $40

River: ($136) 7:diamond: (2 players)
UTG bets $102, Hero...

the fact that he thinks you're a massive station and your hand is slightly underrepped to what he thinks your range might be makes me want to call.

i was gonna say i don't like the flat pre, but given the dynamic it's probably a good play.

your commitment decision is on the turn, and anyways i'd be comfortable calling down versus an aggro losing playing in a spot like this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bbickes

the fact that he thinks you're a massive station and your hand is slightly underrepped to what he thinks your range might be makes me want to call.

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Actually the fact that he thinks zook's a massive station should make you want to fold; he needs to be bluffing here some for it to be a call.

I'd fold the turn.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Renton

Actually the fact that he thinks zook's a massive station should make you want to fold; he needs to be bluffing here some for it to be a call.

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You don't think he'd be vbing thinner due to zook's massive stationyness?

1. with AJo

Board: Ah Th 6h 8c 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.243% 43.24% 00.00% 16 0.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 56.757% 56.76% 00.00% 21 0.00 { AA, TT, 88, 66, AQs-A9s, A6s, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, 9h8h, 9h7h, AQo-AJo }


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2. without AJo

Board: Ah Th 6h 8c 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.258% 32.26% 00.00% 10 0.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 67.742% 67.74% 00.00% 21 0.00 { AA, TT, 88, 66, AQs-A9s, A6s, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, 9h8h, 9h7h, AQo }


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you only need 30% equity to call

hmm almost certain id call a decent amount of the time if i got to the river this way. since i think aj and aq still vb.

If it wasn't four to a straight, I can see AQ value betting here a lot more.

But the fact that its four to a straight, and monotone and that there are tons of two pairs that he doesn't expect hero to fold, I don't think we can expect worse to be value betting here that often at all.

I'd dump this.

apologies i 4got theres a 4 card draw (i noticed it yday :) )

seems like a close turn decision and pretty easy riv fold

oh shit i did not see the 4 straight either. yah im folding the river.

I think turn is really close

- if we call, we will be in bad situation on 7, 9, J, Q + every heart (I think he will barrel all these cards)
- we can't improve to relatively good hand (+ K can sometimes makes a straight for villain)

just fold this river

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

i was gonna say i don't like the flat pre

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The SPR really sucks for your hand here when you flat. SPR = 10 with one caller and 17 with none(which isn't horrible). If you 3bet to 11.5x then your SPR is a very favorable 5.
I know you're assumption is he's folding a lot of worse hands, but 21% UTG range warrants a wider 3bet range by you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Silly String

The SPR really sucks for your hand here when you flat. SPR = 10 with one caller and 17 with none(which isn't horrible). If you 3bet to 11.5x then your SPR is a very favorable 5.
I know you're assumption is he's folding a lot of worse hands, but 21% UTG range warrants a wider 3bet range by you.

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I didn't include that he folds to 3bets 70%, so I really hate 3betting this hand in this position regardless of SPR.

Turns close to a fold, river definitely is.