TPTK

Don’t have much on Villain as he has only been at the table for 49 hands. He is 77/5 over that short sample but I still put him on a very wide once he calls my standard 4x bet {22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A2o+,KTo+,QT o+,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o} I'm a mile ahead of this range (62.8%) and I have position!


$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG E.Barreto ($5)
CO Hero ($7.22)
BTN maxinio2010 ($3.41)
SB wksek ($12.43)
BB Style929 ($5.51)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) Hero is CO :qs: :as:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Style929 calls $0.15

Flop: :9s: :qd: :7c: ($0.42, 2 players)
Style929 bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.54, Style929 calls $0.44

His goofy little bet doesn't effect me in the least so I raise it up. Now I narrow his range but just slightly:{77+,A7s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A7o +,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,98o,79o,87o,76o} Unfortunately I don't know how to eliminate certain suits from the equation in PokerStove so my #'s are slightly off but I am still ahead of his range!

Turn: :3c: ($1.50, 2 players)
Style929 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.96, Style929 calls $1.46

When he makes this call I am thinking WTF I'm going to make some bank or....

River: :ks: ($5.42, 2 players)

This King hits and I am just totally flustered. I'm thinking he could easily have KQ, not to mention a set!

Style929 checks, Hero ($4.52)?

omg this made my day!

Putting people on a range on every street taken to the extreme. I like it.
I wouldn't count the combos there when I'm at the table tbh :D It's any pair and stupid. You're obviously way ahead.

I think you're exactly right about the hand. They like to put you on AK, so I bet 1/2 pot on the river - you can still fold to a raise, don't listen to the people below. Jamming should be fine too.

this hand is exactly the difference between oskar and i in terms of river play styles with weakish made hands.
I check back
he gay bets.
Neither is awful.

I think checking back this river is fairly awful vs such a station when we have the best hand so frquently. I thinkshoving is better than checking backand I might just go ahead and do this, since he never folds Qx and has way more Qx than most people here due to playing terrible suited hands etc. He possibly doesn't even fold 9x to a shove, it's less than pot and he's a moran.

He also shoves KQ K9 JT himself at leasta decent % of the time on the river, so yeah don't check.

Im thinking if he has a set, he's getting it all in on the turn so I'm ruling that out. AQclubs, KQclubs, Q9clubs and JTclubs (less likely) are my best guess for his range. I think checking is fine. He led out the first 2 streets but wasn't committed to shoving fearing you have a set. Maybe I'm crazy but I think you are either behind or up against the same hand. Plus, you have raised every street thus far, so if he did river the straight or top 2 pair a check raise on river is completely reasonable.

looks like he's just a loose fish flatting your raises on every street. i put him on a weak q-x, if the river did help I do not think he would be capable of checking either way

Even though he is a calling station, I think shoving the river is just too strong to get value from the hands that we beat. He won't call a shove with a lower Q (after the K on the river) and with JJ and lower.

If we beat most pocket pairs and lower queens, we should bet an amount that would be called by these hands. Therefore, a gay bet of 1/2 or a bit lower is just fine if you know what to do when he raises (fold, obviously). If you're not prepared to fold to a raise, just check behind and make a note.

His low bets on the flop and the turn are blocking bets. I can see he checking to you on the river a hand like TJ that just made a straight or trying to play lower PPs cheaply. However, those low bets have different meanings depending on the players. Once a donkey was min betting a lot on the flop, so I raised him in the first opportunity and he came over the top. On the flip side of that, when you just call, you're screaming weakness and they can exploit that on subsequent streets.

people don't seem to be realising that villain has only 1/2P left in his stack. we need >50% equity against the range he calls our river bet with in order for betting to be +EV. this may be giving him too much credit because he's a 77/5 but the following range gives him all straights, sets, two pairs, and a decent amount of Qx (i believe he definitely has as low as Q6s+ in his range here because he's a 77/5 and it's a suited picture card)

Board: 9s Qd 7c 3c Ks
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.662% 33.77% 03.90% 26 3.00 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 62.338% 58.44% 03.90% 45 3.00 { QQ, 99, 77, AQs, KQs, Q6s+, JTs, 97s, AQo, KQo, Q8o+, JTo, 97o }

based on this range, a king is basically the only river card we can't jam for value - it kills some of our action from 9x hands, and any draws he may have had either missed and aren't calling (T8), rivered the nuts (TJ), or rivered a pair better than ours and are calling (if he has KT or KJ in his range), so unless he's calling with 9x, TT or JJ on this river, the Qx combos we beat are outweighed by the >two pair hands.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Raoni_Poker

If we beat most pocket pairs and lower queens, we should bet an amount that would be called by these hands. Therefore, a gay bet of 1/2 or a bit lower is just fine if you know what to do when he raises (fold, obviously). If you're not prepared to fold to a raise, just check behind and make a note.

His low bets on the flop and the turn are blocking bets. I can see he checking to you on the river a hand like TJ that just made a straight or trying to play lower PPs cheaply. However, those low bets have different meanings depending on the players. Once a donkey was min betting a lot on the flop, so I raised him in the first opportunity and he came over the top. On the flip side of that, when you just call, you're screaming weakness and they can exploit that on subsequent streets.

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#1 - he only has 1/2 a potsized bet left, bet/folding this river is not an option imo

#2 - i don't really agree. i doubt this guy knows what a blocking bet is. if he's read enough strategy to have heard the term "blocking bet", i doubt he'd play 77% of hands.

#3 - i agree. donking ranges vary greatly between different fish. putting a 77/5 on a range without significant reads is actually quite hard because he has such a wide range pre, and we have no decent reads to use to dissect that range postflop based on his actions (ie notes regarding donk ranges, lines we've seen him take etc).

by the way, the logic in #2 is a bit presumptuous if we believe #3 right?

just some points that came to mind reading your post, no hate intended.

just reading through others' responses after i posted mine. carroters makes a good point - if he's lead two streets thus far with KQ, he's pretty likely to lead the river too because he improved to top two. if we continue that line of logic to assume he leads sets and straights as well, we be jammin'


Board: 9s Qd 7c 3c Ks
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.417% 54.17% 06.25% 26 3.00 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 39.583% 33.33% 06.25% 16 3.00 { AQs, Q6s+, 97s, AQo, Q8o+, 97o }

edit: i'm converted, add me to the get-it-in camp

Again, just don't check. The EV between a small bet and a shove can be close pending how much of his weaker sd hands a shove folds out. I doubt he folds much Qx to a shove, but there are some weaker hands he can station a 1/2 pot bet with. Still shoving, being too lazy to actually go into combos and EV calcs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rpm

#1 - he only has 1/2 a potsized bet left, bet/folding this river is not an option imo

#2 - i don't really agree. i doubt this guy knows what a blocking bet is. if he's read enough strategy to have heard the term "blocking bet", i doubt he'd play 77% of hands.

#3 - i agree. donking ranges vary greatly between different fish. putting a 77/5 on a range without significant reads is actually quite hard because he has such a wide range pre, and we have no decent reads to use to dissect that range postflop based on his actions (ie notes regarding donk ranges, lines we've seen him take etc).

by the way, the logic in #2 is a bit presumptuous if we believe #3 right?

just some points that came to mind reading your post, no hate intended.

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Yeah...I did not realize his remaining stack size. With regards to the blocking bet...you don't need to be familiar to this concept to use it intuitively. If he bets small and calls raises, he isn't strong. He is either drawing or desperate for a cheap showdown.

He's a loose passive donk. Value bet the river and he'll call with worse alot of the time. Maybe he shows up with two pair or a set sometimes, not alot of the time though.