Theme of my life - what to do with the 2nd nuts.

Villain is Mr. Mole, 28/20/9.1. What I think is relevant is that in the chat before this hand we had been discussing how bad I have been doing - I had lost like 2 coolers and then two flips in the 20 mins before this hand all 200 bb deep at this table so I was stuck a ton on the session - . I really think them knowing that will change how they play versus me and bluff me less since they think I'm tilting. I think shoving here would be bad...calling is close and folding is probably best. It's pretty simple...he's just never bluffing and these guys probably only c/called 66 on the river since my river value betting range is actually pretty polarized so no need to raise it since I'm never b/calling AK and probably checking KJ.

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($618.70)
Hero (UTG) ($434.55)
MP ($96.85)
Button ($77.25)
SB ($427.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K:club:, 7:club:
Hero bets $7, 1 fold, Button calls $7, 1 fold, BB calls $5

Flop: ($22) 6:heart:, K:spade:, K:diamond: (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16.50, 1 fold, BB calls $16.50

Turn: ($55) 7:diamond: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $44, BB calls $44

River: ($143) Q:heart: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $118, BB raises $236, Hero can call the minraise, shove for quite a bit more or make an awesome fold?

Total pot: $615

I would DEF not fold. Very likely shove. You're utg, so the only hand that beats us is KQ and given the suits out there, KhQh is even blocked, so he would have to be calling an offsuit KQ.

He can have AK given you're utg, and he can certainly have QQ, and slowplayed 66 and even the one combo of 77.

I'd ship. No way is he folding Q's full, and likely not 6's full. Esp since he thinks you could be getting tilted/fed up.

im no help to you bcoz id shove.

You def dont think he can do this with 66, 77 or a bare K? and no chance he turns a hand like 88-11 into a bluff?

I would of assumed HE thinks you can b/c AK in this spot and you NOT check behind KJ therefore HE thinks you would b/c a raise with AK and KJ.

Hope I understood your reads there.

yeah griffey said it well

- and FH combos are: 3x 66, 1x 77, 3x QQ vs 3x KQ, so you are 7:3 favourite and if you shove he will have about 140 to call into 740 and after that history, he is probably insta snap calling

Cmon man. Folding here for these odds is just FPS. I mean if he shoves we can talk. Just snap this off though. I hate a shove too.

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Cmon man. Folding here for these odds is just FPS. I mean if he shoves we can talk. Just snap this off though. I hate a shove too.

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I don't know how we can just flat here. If we look at mr.diamond's combos, I think its safe to discount KQ by 50% just cause not everyone is calling KQo here to an utg open from this spot. Not everyone will call 77 either, so if we discount that, then we still have 6:1.5.

I find it hard to believe that most people will have an easy fold with 6's full or Q's full or something here if we shove, given the odds they are getting.

Yeah obviously we have to call since he minraised (I'm still kind of convinced folding would be pretty awesome but unrealistic), but I think shoving is pretty bad. Griffey I don't think this is AK or 66, and he's pretty much always repopping QQ pre.

Why can't it be 66? If i get to the river this way with 66 I'm for sure putting in some sort of raise here... and then stubborn calling it off. Not sure how many people can make hero folds with boats getting ridic odds.

(edit: given stack sizes, I think its much more likely he has QQ here, than if it was 100bbs as well)

I want to add 2 points:

1) his range on the river is for sure KQ and QQ (3 combos/3 combos, so EV of shove is same as EV of call), and if his range is wider - its always wider by worse hand than our K7

2) he can't have KQs




edit: just want to say, that we can't make mistake by shoving, because we are splitting against top of his range
- shoving is definitely higher variance play, but sometimes he will have that 66 and call us and we will make more money, than by checking

Do people really call KQo OOP vs an UTG open in those games?

i can't imagine doing anything but calling

Fold pre?

I'm also in the just call river camp, tho I am a nit.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond

just want to say, that we can't make mistake by shoving, because we are splitting against top of his range

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This isn't necessarily true if we weight his range more to KQ. I think that's what makes this just a call b/c I don't think he gets to the river this way with QQ as often as KQ, even though both are in his range. Also I don't think 66 is in his range as often either as he likely raises flop/turn some % of the time.

ppl are never folding KQoff inthe BB in these games, it's 5 max and his vpip is 28 so KQof is 100% in his range. Ppl are just nits postflop in deep pots.

call, the other 2 options kinda suck.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by caddie444

Fold pre?

I'm also in the just call river camp, tho I am a nit.



This isn't necessarily true if we weight his range more to KQ. I think that's what makes this just a call b/c I don't think he gets to the river this way with QQ as often as KQ, even though both are in his range. Also I don't think 66 is in his range as often either as he likely raises flop/turn some % of the time.

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I think they are only 2 important factors in this hand - how much he is calling/3bettting with QQ pre and how much he is c/raising river with worse
- and we don't know both (especially after that history), so its tough to say

- yeah and because of it, I must agree with you - I can't give a better argument, because everything is questionable and simply: call is safer, than shove



- tbh, if I would played this hand I would just call, because I'm nit too - just thought, that shoving can be more EV+

WTF mr diamond LOL. Safer?????

I mean "safer = less variance"

Nobody here is saying call because it would reduce variance.

Alright, I suppose I should learn a few lessons here. Either I value-town myself waay too often. Or, there are lots of nits here, and I'm a big spazz and therefore should be shoving this river. Not sure which!

But yah, agree with P4's, this has nothing to do with variance reduction.

I don't see any justification for opening K7s UTG when the BB is a good reg who thinks you are on tilt, call now.

Mr. Diamond, lowering variance isn't a reason to make a play anymore. With games as tough as they are you have to take any edge.

And yah, I agree, K7cc just dump this UTG.

I mentioned this to you before, Rav, but if you're downswinging post a stat-check up thread. With positional stats etc.

sorry guys for my English, but I never said, that we should call, because of reducing variance - this is obv very silly reason

- before post form caddie444, I thought shoving would be better, but then I realize, that we don't have info/reads on it, so we should just call - and then I said calling is less variance play than shoving - it was just point, no reason for it


again sorry

preflop is fine if there are some muppets at the table. i dont think you can shove river. we can count card combos all day but his lines make so much sense with KQ that i would just call

hero is under the gun; hero is in the high jack. potato, po-tah-to. MIRITE?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

hero is under the gun; hero is in the high jack. potato, po-tah-to. MIRITE?

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either this is a surprising troll or a hilarious coincidence

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Genitruc

either this is a surprising troll or a hilarious coincidence

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we gots a stalker

I don't think I would fold here. Definitely could have AK. Have to go with a call.

This is for sure a shove. Okay, you said your perceived to be on tilt? Just makes the shove even easier. His range is going to be wider, against your perceived LOLSUPERWIDETILTrange. He most MOST MOST definitely will do this with worse K's, and worse boats. He could even do this as a bluff a certain non zero % of the time, due to the fact there is two KK's on the flop just make it all the less likely you would or he would have one(so he could have went for a double float, even tho ldfo you have one and he might too, but he's totally doing this with worse K's and worse boats all day, especially if you're seen as on tilt. EASIEST SHOVE IN THE WORLD. Everyone else who says differently is a donk.

Ah yes, the double float river c/minraise - a go to play in the clutch at 1/2 NL these days.

I think this is really close to a fold but you probably see 77 enough or just something totally absurd to warrant a call.

I'm 99% sure this is a shove. I understand it looks a lot like KQ but you have the 2nd nuts and you are beating tons of other plausible hands that could have got to the river this way and played it similarly that aren't folding to a shove.

It's tempting because our first thought is KQ plays it exactly this way I bet. But the reality is 66 and 77 arguably play it the same every time up to the river. 66 and 77 are also hands that I think are likely to be smaller raised rather than bigger. Then we have any other possible hands, like AK or KJs or K7s or K6s that may or may not be calling preflop, and KJ which arguably isnt raising river.
I think he has a hand that is calling a shove that is worse over 50% of the time, making it a shove.