A couple from today

Down nearly 6 BIs today, running 30bb/100 below EV. No big hands that weren't standard suck outs but need some sanity checks.....

Hand 1.
Villain is an unknown 25/0 donk after 8 hands (no post-flop reads) and bought in for a half stack. How often is he doing this with worse made hands / draws on the turn?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (Button) ($51.55)
SB ($50.30)
BB ($13.50)
UTG ($72.47)
MP ($26.48)
CO ($135.11)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A:club:, A:spade:
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero bets $2, 2 folds, MP calls $1.50
Flop: ($4.75) 3:diamond:, 2:diamond:, J:spade: (2 players)
MP bets $1, Hero raises $5.87, MP calls $4.87
Turn: ($16.49) 8:club: (2 players)
MP bets $8.24
Hero??

Hand 2.
Villain is a 20/16/3.8 reg. He will cb this flop 100% of the time and probably 2nd barrels too often (60%). I think AQ and sets are both in my perceived range come the turn, but he has probably seen me floating with air v other players. We have tangled a couple of times this session where he has called me AI with worse and sucked out. At this table we have no history, and I am starting to think he may be avoiding me because we are both deep. His bet sizing also seems to suggest he doesn't want to play a big pot here (or is he dying for a raise?!) Is this a good spot to bluff?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (Button) ($119.01)
SB ($38.05)
BB ($50)
UTG ($54.45)
MP ($37.63)
CO ($92.76)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 9:club:, 10:heart:
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, CO bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25, 3 folds
Flop: ($5.75) 9:diamond:, A:club:, 2:spade: (2 players)
CO bets $3, Hero calls $3
Turn: ($11.75) Q:spade: (2 players)
CO bets $5
Hero??

1. ur good the vast majority of the time, just raise and get it in

2. 3bet preflop > fold > call

flop call is good but his turn bet looks like weak Ax/KQ. if he has overcard+flush/straight draw he has 25% equity, and if he has a better made hand u have 10% equity. so i guess fold

Hand 1 - get it in all day here

Hand 2 - fold > 3bet > call. Looks like a weak ace to me on the turn, I'd just fold

1) limp/call pre + tiny donkbet + half stack mean he's probably pretty bad. When he calls the flop and makes a fairly committing turn bet I think he probably has a hand he thinks is the nuts, but AJ (especially AdJd), KJ, Ad4d, 5d6d, 9dTd and maybe even worse Js probably all think theyre good. Even if you discount suited connectors pre, there are just not that many hands you are behind here compared with Jx and combo draws, and he probably calls with any top pair and most combodraws. Easy value shove.

2) Id probably just fold. I found this spot interesting though. I think it's quite a dangerous place to bluff for a few reasons.

a) Straight cards on the river could easily give him 2 pair so if he decides to call once and try to check it down, your barrel cards are actually pretty good for his range, and if you end up checking it down you lose.

b) He looks like a weak Ace so A:spade: is very much in his range, and if he has A :spade: and you tend to call tight pre, there arent many flushes you can have at all on the river.

a and b make firing the river pretty dangerous, and raising once and then giving up probably gets a call from a weak A too often.

c) You rep sets, AQ that didnt 3bet pre, Axs that is now 2pair (if you call fairly wide pre), flop float that turned a draw. Thats fairly thin on actual value hands, although that might not matter anyway. If you are fairly tight and reggy, I probably instafold AJ in his position anyway.

1) ? its 50bb deep and u have AA vs a donk on a drawy board. That's three good reasons and I normally need only one to get it in here.

2) fold preee, fold pre even more vs a guy that is so aggro post. And I'd fold turn as well, he's prolly the type to barrel Qx here even.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

2.
flop call is good but his turn bet looks like weak Ax/KQ. if he has overcard+flush/straight draw he has 25% equity, and if he has a better made hand u have 10% equity. so i guess fold

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Doesn't your logic mean a raise here is good? i.e. he bet/folds weak Ax/KQ etc?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HiLo

Doesn't your logic mean a raise here is good? i.e. he bet/folds weak Ax/KQ etc?

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yeah, but what u repping? 99 is the only made hand you can have, guess axss too.

1) Raise to get stacks in.

2) Fold>>>>>3bet>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>call preflop
as played fold turn

hand 1)
- I did some stoving, because I think he will have J3s and shit like this a lot
- and if you add only AJ into range of sets and 2pairs you almost have the right equity - so shoving is fine

hand 2)
- I really don't like calling pre
- I think you need some reads for bluffing this turn, I would just fold

1. Easiest raise ever, his range is almost entirely flush draws and Jx.

2. What Meeloche said. Pre is fairly terrible.

In 2nd hand, if MP limper is a fish/whale are we happy calling T9o IP on button??

Im not 100%, T9s im calling but T9o is closer. T9o call=3bet if MP a fish.

2nd hand.

MP limper is a 38/7 station.

CO is raising limpers 28% from here. I think he dble barrels too often and should have mentioned earlier that he has folded 86% when his flop Cbet gets raised. I don't have enough turn stats to get a reliable figure on his fold to turn raise %, but expect it to be high because he cbets the turn 60%, folds to flop raises alot. His WTSD is a meh 26%.

At the time I was sat at 2 other tables with where I am 100-130bb deep and he is getting involved in a lot of pots with me. At this table where we are ~200bb deep he seems to be avoiding playing pots with me.

The above made me think a call could be good here, for either making a big hand with good implied odds and the possibility of a station coming along for the ride too; or if the station folds preflop then I have position and a good chance of stealing the pot somewhere down the line. From all your comments though it sounds like I have talked myself into FPS?

1) Raise
2) Fold pre