Snap off missed draws or get value towned

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10-06-2010, 12:40 PM
AFchung

50NL - Snap off missed draws or get value towned

Villain is 37/26 over a sample of only 27 hands. It's my first orbit at the table

Can we profitably call this river here? It feels like I'm getting shown AJ/A9 a ton here and his $10 sizing into $16 feels grossly weighted towards value. If he pots it I'd probably call and try to pick off a bluff but his bet sizing threw me off. Or am I leveling myself?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($52.45)
Hero (Button) ($50)
SB ($50)
BB ($60.60)
UTG ($60.25)
UTG+1 ($54.50)
MP1 ($48.75)
MP2 ($45.50)
MP3 ($39.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
6 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

Turn: ($7.25) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50

River: ($16.25) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero folds

Total pot: $16.25 | Rake: $0.80
10-06-2010, 01:10 PM
badgers

he is relatively unknown so he can easily be vbetting worse/ bluffing.
10-14-2010, 01:54 AM
Deanglow

I like the turn bet but you can't fold the river against a fish with no read except loose preflop stats.
10-14-2010, 06:49 PM
PapalRage

I hate your flop and turn betsizing, bet bigger. River is a call for sure.
10-24-2010, 05:26 AM
al yell

From what we know can't we presume opponent is passive? And based on that observation is he likely to be donk bluffing / thinly vbetting the river?
10-24-2010, 06:42 AM
rpm

from where did you get passive? i would have thought a 37/26 would be more on the aggressive side? i think he would have either lead or check/raised aces up if he had them on the flop or turn. i call expecting to see AJ at strongest, and busted draws some.
10-24-2010, 07:10 AM
al yell

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpm

from where did you get passive? i would have thought a 37/26 would be more on the aggressive side?

loose passive due to the gap between his VPIP and PFR, yes? Generally an aggressive player will be the first to open pots or come in raising, whereas this guy's flatting wide pf.
10-24-2010, 09:24 AM
badgers

Quote:

Originally Posted by al yell

loose passive due to the gap between his VPIP and PFR, yes? Generally an aggressive player will be the first to open pots or come in raising, whereas this guy's flatting wide pf.

ridic small sample to argue this about but presuming that a 37/26 is passive postflop doesn't seem good...
10-24-2010, 06:51 PM
rpm

Quote:

Originally Posted by al yell

loose passive due to the gap between his VPIP and PFR, yes? Generally an aggressive player will be the first to open pots or come in raising, whereas this guy's flatting wide pf.

granted, there is an 11% difference between his VPIP and PFR, but he's 37/26, so he's still raising over 70% of the hands he VPIP's with, which is comparable to a 10/7 in terms of passivity, it's just that this guy (if he really was 37/26, i highly doubt he would be over a decent sample) is playing a lot more hands.