semi bluff line check

ok this is probably just spew but i won the hand and im trying not to be results oriented, so i need to figure if im running smart bluffs or not (ldo)....as for my image i was running like 14/11 and had not yet raised a cbet.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($21.84)
UTG+1 ($29.38)
MP1 ($30.93)
MP2 ($22.55)
CO ($25)
Button ($42.04)
SB ($26)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.85, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.08, MP2 calls $2.58

Turn: ($9.96) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $7.20, 1 fold

Total pot: $9.96 | Rake: $0.49


villain is 15/11 over 200 hands, and multiple times i had seen him say in the chat box "i cant believe im folding here" or "folding such a sick hand right now" and shit like that so i figured id put it to the test.

range for calling my flop bet (given most of the better part of the range you could expect to 3bet/get it in on the flop so you can discount the better half of his range if you like)=

77+, JTs, 56s...

on the turn i think hes only continuing with 77-99 and straights, i think he folds all his overpairs...

so if im right about him folding overpairs then he is folding 24 combos out of 41 (TT-AA= 24 combos)...or he is folding 58% of the time, also i should ahve bet a hair more because against a range of 77-99,straights if he shoves i still have 21% equity and could profitably call the shove.

also i know the 2 is not a great card to barrel but if i check my plan goes out the window and im pretty clueless, so i decided to bet one more street , hopefully using the hammer to my advantage and check/fold non J or 6 rivers

I like it and agree with your analysis.

Umm why are we flatting a 15/11s MP open with ATo oop?

Also, giving yourself odds to call a shove isn't a reason to bet more. It just means that IF you do happen to have bet enough to call a shove then you shouldn't fold. Betting the amount where calling a shove is 0EV is the same as betting a smaller amount and then folding, in that equity wise, after hes shipped all in, your equity on a decision is still 0. The difference is that in the former you'll lose less the times you lose the pot when he calls your turn bet and win the same amount both when he folds the turn and when you make your hand on the river and shove for value.

So adding money to a bet just so you can call a shove is hurting your immediate EV on the bet more than being able to call a shove is helping you.

Obv if you can increase FE by betting larger though then you prooly should bet/call a bigger amount, not sure that's the case here though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Umm why are we flatting a 15/11s MP open with ATo oop?

Also, giving yourself odds to call a shove isn't a reason to bet more. It just means that IF you do happen to have bet enough to call a shove then you shouldn't fold. Betting the amount where calling a shove is 0EV is the same as betting a smaller amount and then folding, in that equity wise, after hes shipped all in, your equity on a decision is still 0. The difference is that in the former you'll lose less the times you lose the pot when he calls your turn bet and win the same amount both when he folds the turn and when you make your hand on the river and shove for value.

So adding money to a bet just so you can call a shove is hurting your immediate EV on the bet more than being able to call a shove is helping you.

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ah i see, makes a lot more sense...i figured there was somewhere in there where money was being hemorrhaged

reason i flatted with ATo is cause he had been stealing a fair amount from the HJ as the btn and co were tight so if hes opening like Axs isnt flatting with ATo pretty str8

Quote:

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Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

ah i see, makes a lot more sense...i figured there was somewhere in there where money was being hemorrhaged

reason i flatted with ATo is cause he had been stealing a fair amount from the HJ as the btn and co were tight so if hes opening like Axs isnt flatting with ATo pretty str8

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ATo plays like garbage OOP unfortunately. Why not flat ATs and 3bet ATo if you feel he is stealing too much?

Yeah there are way better hands to flat here and even if we have seen him open some suited Ax from here he still has 36 combos of AJ-AK and only 24 combos of suited Ax assuming he opens them 100% and we don't know this. Without initiative or position this is going to play badly and you'd be much better turning it into part of your 3 bet bluffing range having some blockers etc, provided he can fold to 3 bets. I'd rather flat JTs T9s etc.

Carroters pretty much pwnd this thread.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BooG690

Carroters pretty much pwnd this thread.

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while i agree with what he has said, its mostly been about the shittyness of my preflop play, and my errant thinking towards betting to set up an EV+ call, as far as the actual semibluff goes hes not really said anything one way or the other

Well, it's really just an analysis of your range. The rest can be done by using math.

If the analysis was done correctly, I like the semi-bluff. You can probably continue to pound this guy until he gets tired of your shit and starts calling...and then we start to thin value bet.

Mhuahahahahaha

I'd say it looks alright, albeit a bit unnecessary. Would you keep going or shut down if he calls the turn and river comes blank?

Flop raise is alright. I tend to agree with the range you give him to call the raise, therefore making the turn c/f for me. With him complaining in chat it could be a sign he could be getting frustrated? Getting stubborn and calling down on a safe turn and river with an overpair wouldn't be unlikely. I just really don't think its worth trying to make this guy fold an overpair.

We know that villain is a weak player who apparently likes to fold a lot. We can exploit this by doing exactly what philly is doing here.

You're assuming villain has grown frustrated and is going to change his game by calling lighter. However, we have no clue if he has adjusted or not. I say we continue to blast this fucker.

Yeah turn looks good to me given your description. If our assumption that he folds overpairs a lot is correct and I think it is given your reads then the math speaks for itself, we get folds enough.

I have a tendency to pounce on what is the most glaring mistake in a hand, here preflop, so if I ignore your turn line, it prolly means that imo there's nothing wrong with it.

pre-flop is pretty bad (looks like something i'd do) and that is the most important thing you can take from this hand.

flop is ok - interested in the range you're doing this with tho
turn is fine as played vs a folder - you're repping exactly 77-99, but it's fine i guess. I think this would be a pretty bad set line vs this villain cos of how often he'll be folding.

rationale for turn bet-sizing bigger isn't ideal

fold pre ainec. this hand is going to get you in so much trouble because its dominated, you're playing OOP, and against a reg. i would fold even AJ here

postflop i like what you're thinking. remember though, that trying to get players off top pair and overpairs is generally not the greatest idea. you will get called a vast amount of the time

should probably just bet like 5.75 on the turn so he calls it then shove like any river v this guy. was too lazy to read the thread and see if any1 mentioned this. yada yada every1 mentioned pre-flop