T8s vs Reg, When flop 3-bets get flatted.

Villain is 22/18 with a 2.5% 3-bet. He's only raised 8% of c bets so far over 750 hands.

When he raises this flop i guess I derived a range of a little bit of air, some combos of AK AA KK since he prolly flats these pre a good amount of the time and a few worse draw to me. Not sure how often he bluff raises this flop with like gutters etc but I'd assume it's some non 0% of the time.

My original plan was to 3 bet, happy to fold out his air and get it in vs worse fds and better hands and be doing fine equity wise. On review though, not sure how many worse draws he's actuially gonna c/r/jam here. Calling seems meh though since anyworse draws will be able to play the turn perfectly vs me and on non H turns I'll be c/f most of the time.

When he flats the 3 bet I think he's pretty damn nutted, but could still have some worse draws. Kinda lost here but I felt like I had to fold this turn since combos of AK AA KK 88 are going to outweight the few combos of hearts he can show up with here, this leads me to think my flop 3 bet was pretty bad.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($101.50)
Hero (UTG) ($104.55)
MP ($94)
CO ($132.55)
Button ($96.90)
SB ($109.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10:heart:, 8:heart:
Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) A:heart:, K:heart:, 8:club: (2 players)
Hero bets $5.50, CO raises $16, Hero raises $28.50, CO calls $18

Turn: ($76.50) J:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $42, Hero folds

Total pot: $76.50

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.141% 39.12% 00.02% 6972 3.00 { Th8h }
Hand 1: 60.859% 60.84% 00.02% 10842 3.00 { KK+, 88, AKs, QhJh, 7h6h, AKo }

This is a range for him getting it in on the flop. Meh. Given what's in the pot here he doesn't have to have air and be folding hardly ever to make it +EV. Think I'd have to c/f non heart turns if I flat, but since we can stack this range on heart turns our implied odds are good so this could be a call on the flop.

3betting this flop in conjuction with checking turn makes no sense...

your villain seems very nitty indeed postflop, only 8% flop raises means its pretty much always the nuts, and he has alot of nuts in his range since he only 3bets 2.5% (slowplay much?) . i think the only draw he would raise is like QJhh. Versus a likely range of KK+,AK, 88 you're crushed here. In reality I just peel one and fold non-heart non-8 turns vs him, but the correct play might be just to fold flop if he's that nutted and we're oop.

Also if u think ppl have air here this is the nut hand on this board to call his 3bet with and c/c turns and some rivers and let him bluff hearts for example. It protects your range quite well too. I'd do this vs regs that chronically bluff raise flops.

Yup agree the flop 3 bet sucks. Think that calling and folding blanks will be alright given we get his stack so often on heart turns.

I think you have a fair number of strongish hands that might call OOP here on the flop (AK/AAA/KK sometimes and AQ/AJ other times), that you likely won't get bluffed too often on later streets.

If turn is heart and checks through and river is brick, I would c/r river.

size worst pre-flop please.

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

size worst pre-flop please.

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what?

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

size worst pre-flop please.

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Nothing wrong with making it 3.5x UTG, where our range is quite narrow.

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

size worst pre-flop please.

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post better please.

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Originally Posted by Alexos

your villain seems very nitty indeed postflop, only 8% flop raises means its pretty much always the nuts, and he has alot of nuts in his range since he only 3bets 2.5% (slowplay much?) . i think the only draw he would raise is like QJhh. Versus a likely range of KK+,AK, 88 you're crushed here. In reality I just peel one and fold non-heart non-8 turns vs him, but the correct play might be just to fold flop if he's that nutted and we're oop.

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exactly this

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Originally Posted by JL

Nothing wrong with making it 3.5x UTG, where our range is quite narrow.

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T8s is part of a "narrow" UTG? Please explain how OP isn't getting OWNED when he uses this sizing pre-flop unless there is some horribad loose player behind us.

I open about 14% utg fwiw and I don't have any chronic 3 bettors on this table, if I was getting played back at utg and having to fold etc I'd just make it 3. Not sure why this is exploitable, care to elaborate?

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

T8s is part of a "narrow" UTG? Please explain how OP isn't getting OWNED when he uses this sizing pre-flop unless there is some horribad loose player behind us.

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Statements like this can never really be true, as so many other factors go into it. How you play postflop will dictate whether it's going to be profitable to raise 10 8s UTG here, also if you think you are going to get owned by some guy flatting every one of your opens or 3 betting you chronically, just adapt. If you think he is attempting to exploit you, then he is going to be playing exploitably as well - which is good for you if you know how to re-exploit him. Postflop play is so much more important than preflop play, that a terrible postflop player can raise AQ UTG and it is going to be less profitable than if a great postflop player raises 10 8s or w/e.

Correct me if i'm wrong on this btw

Does anyone else think the turn may be a call vs the small bet in isolation here? We are calling $42 with roughly 13 discounted outs to win $142(I don't think he's folding his last $24 ever). That would make the call BE or slightly -EV with rake and definitely +EV with metagame implications.

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Originally Posted by Toadstool

Statements like this can never really be true, as so many other factors go into it. How you play postflop will dictate whether it's going to be profitable to raise 10 8s UTG here, also if you think you are going to get owned by some guy flatting every one of your opens or 3 betting you chronically, just adapt. If you think he is attempting to exploit you, then he is going to be playing exploitably as well - which is good for you if you know how to re-exploit him. Postflop play is so much more important than preflop play, that a terrible postflop player can raise AQ UTG and it is going to be less profitable than if a great postflop player raises 10 8s or w/e.

Correct me if i'm wrong on this btw

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no ur right and carroters addressed why he was 3.5xing so it's like w/e