http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/5221/rigged.jpg
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spend less time looking at graphs, more time getting that light green line above 0$
The light green is my EV, I am trying to figure out why I am losing in 100BB pots consistently and also in EV. All the while still running at or around some sort of profit as small as it might be.
I came across it looking at how I am playing in certain spots and just wanted to ask if it's just me or std?
Standard. !!
I don't want this to come across as bitching about run bad. I am trying to find out why 99+BB pots are so bad EV wise. I'm only 30% W$SD% in these and they are 100% WSD% so it means I am both getting it in bad and/or running bad EV?? Obviously I am not doing well in them either way and that's what I was looking at. But nobody has been able to show me a 99+BB's won or loss graph over a a large sample (175K hands for this one) that is running up and close to EV neutral. I am trying to find out if it's me or not.
Now if I switch to won or loss 80BB it's not nearly as bad, but EV is still outracing me after I had my initial drop, this is still 100% showdown and is now 50% W$SD
It also includes al the hands from the first graph.
http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/7081/rigged80.jpg
I have a 4th of your sample but my graph looks pretty similar. Mine doesn't go as straight down though.
yea, now here's the thing, when looking at 99BB's and under it looks like this
http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/9752/notrigged99.jpg
So what I am finding now is that if I play a ton of smaller pots and don't get to showdown, as opposed to flipping a shit ton I run a mile above EV. So there must be something about how it's calculated then.
I am guessing that our EV lines will be more dependent on how many pots are getting AI vs all the small pots we play and have less to do with actual EV. Since I am running and playing horrible in large pots, it stands to reason I should just play a ton of small ball, and get out of the way when things are starting to heat up with bigger bets. I would think anyone running -EV is really just playing a ton of big pots, and winning or losing actual $ will be dependent on dead money, getting it in good and run good.
I think you need to look at the extreme scenarios.
Suppose you're a mega nit and only ever get all-in with the nuts. Let's assume you're always around 99% when you get all-in. Either you win the pot as expected and end up a little bit over EV, or you lose and end up way under EV.
In theory, after 100 trials, things could equal out and you lose 1 and win the rest. But if you don't have enough samples to even out, and you do lose 1 earlier then you would be quite a bit under EV.
The only reason I can see such a strong dependence in your EV lines to pot sizes, is that in the big pots you are potentially only getting in with very very good hands (high %). As the pots get smaller, you are more willing to gamble and get it in with lower %?
Is your filter only one hands that are all in before the river? Or just at showdown greater than that many BBs.