100NL 77, flopped set, turn action

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11-01-2010, 10:08 PM
Gobbatino

100NL 77, flopped set, turn action

Villain is 15/9, 3bet 3.7% and is a reg.

He's setting it up for an easy shove on the river, which I can't call unless I fill up, which I'd have to donk and he might not call. I have about 22% to fill up and he's giving me 4:1 to fill up. I beat nothing, right? Standard fold? Apologies if it is, weak tight tendencies are strong in me.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($390.50)
BB ($101.50)
Hero (UTG) ($155.15)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($72.85)
MP2 ($161.70)
MP3 ($100)
CO ($184.30)
Button ($102.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7:heart:, 7:diamond:
Hero bets $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, Button calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($13.50) 10:heart:, 6:club:, 7:club: (4 players)
Hero bets $11, 1 fold, CO calls $11, 1 fold

Turn: ($35.50) 3:club: (2 players)
Hero bets $27, CO raises to $70
11-01-2010, 10:22 PM
bikes

call. jam if you boat. c/f if you dont. he's giving you near direct odds and he doesn't have to call the river jam all to often to make this profitable
11-01-2010, 10:29 PM
daven

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bbickes

call. jam if you boat. c/f if you dont.

^ this, and not even close cos of villain's sizing
11-01-2010, 10:33 PM
Gobbatino

You really think he's calling a river where the board pairs often enough? Its not like this reg is great but who would call that? I'm never bluffing.
11-02-2010, 01:07 AM
bjsaust

People hate to fold big hands. Theres even a theorem about it.
11-02-2010, 02:13 AM
BankItDrew

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

You really think he's calling a river where the board pairs often enough? Its not like this reg is great but who would call that? I'm never bluffing.

This hand is not about polarizing your range with this sort of hand. It's about having sexy pot odds and not requiring much implied odds to make this call profitable.
11-03-2010, 02:39 PM
Vi-Zer0Skill

he's only gotta decide you floated a hand like Acx/straight+flush combo draw that you're turning into a bluff on the river 10% of the time for call turn/shove board pairing rivers to be clearly profitable. i think he definitely calls at least 10% of the time with King/Ace high flushes, which make up a lot of his range