ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 9! (YTD: 48-59-1, +16.45 units)

YTD: 48-59-1
Units Won: +16.45

Last week obviously sucked, lost most of my big bets, and had to get lucky to get my few wins. Oh, and lost half the profits of the season so far. Oh well, week 9 here we go!

Last week, I got run over on the Panthers with a wicked pump fake by the sportsbooks on that game, so I'm going to post my plays a little earlier this time, even if I haven't made them yet. So excuse me if I'm not able to update units wagered or exact odds until I actually have the bet placed.

That being said, here we go:

San Diego Chargers -2 (-110)
7 units spread across Betphoenix, Betmania, Skybook, and Heritage
Chargers -2 (-110) @ Houston - Grab it before it it's gone!

I made the thread above earlier in the week and still believe it holds true. Antonio Gates being out or limited does hurt San Diego's offense, and the Pinny lean being on the Texans scares the @*&^ out of me, but alas, here we are. This bet is placed.

Houston Texans/San Diego Chargers OVER 49 (-110)
1 unit at BetPhoenix

Browns +4.5 (-113)
3 units at Matchbook (1 still waiting to get filled)

Browns M/L (+185)
2 units at Matchbook

Ugh, just following the reverse line movement here. This bet stinks to high heaven and I sooooo want to take the Patriots. 3:1 or 4:1 bet ratio on New England vs Cleveland and the line moves from -5.5 to -3.5?

Carolina Panthers +6 or M/L
2 units

Again following reverse line movement from 6.5 to 6 with bets streaming in on New Orleans. Haven't decided if I'm going to take the M/L or the +6 just yet.

As always, I'll blindly be taking any team up by 14+ points at halftime in the second half. Make sure to try to get the best number if you're trying to follow this strategy. I've won two games by a .5 point and lost last week on the Colts by 1 point. Remember, half points are worth more in a halftime than in a full game, especially off the numbers of 3 and 7. I'd venture to guess that on and off the 3 and 7 are worth north of 30 cents.

I'll update this thread before gametime with what units and odds I get. I'll obviously be at the Houston Texans game (season tickets), so I won't be able to update any halftimes I take. But my strategy is pretty well laid out above.

I don't know if anyone's reading this, but if you are, thanks for reading and good luck to you too. Hopefully we're not on opposite sides.

Added Seattle Seahawks +7.5 (-108)
1 unit at Heritage

Seahawks getting more than a touchdown at home appeals to me. They're *really* strong at home.

Locking in my Panthers bet with the following:

Carolina Panthers +7 (-122)
2 units at Matchbook

I figure with the line already being at 6, getting a full point and onto the 7 is worth 14 cents to me.

Adding:

Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-103)
1 unit at Matchbook

Philly coming off a bye, Indy coming off a short week, and even though they lookd vs the Texans, I think the Colts are a weaker team with their injuries.

Malcolm Floyd is also out

So, the Texans lost, even though San Diego spotted us 14 points basically on turnovers. *sigh*.

Oh well, at least my bet won I guess.

Bets I placed at halftime:

New Orleans Saints -.5 2nd Half (-111.5)
To win 5.33 units

They were up by 14. Ergo I took them.

Cleveland Browns +4.5 2nd Half (-110)
4 units at BetPhoenix

The Browns were getting as many points as they were originally for the entire game, but for the second half, with everyone betting on the Patriots. I like hitting this situation when it comes around.

And...on my drive home,

New York Giants pk 2nd Half (-122)
To Win 5.65 units at Matchbook

Blech. Tom Coughlin decides that kneeling the ball and giving it back to the Seahawks with :40 left on the clock is more preferable to either scoring a TD or kicking a FG...I@*&^*@^&@^%&%$##*&@^*@&% what?!

sad. oh well.

Adding Dallas Cowboys M/L (+299)
1 unit at Matchbook

I think the Cowboys are oversold here, getting +7.5. I'll take them on the M/L

Pinny lean is scaring me off the Cowboys bet. Buying it back at -288.

Oh, forgot to mention that I added one unit to the Panthers bet when I saw it went to -5.5.

So that is one more unit lost than I originally had.

Adding GB Packers -.5 (-107)
To Win 5.26 Units at BetPhoenix and Skybook