MPTK and NFD 160~BB deep

Villain is unknown currently running 22/11 with 33% afq over a tiny sample. typical passive fish stats on everyone else involved


UTG: $55.15
MP: $54.92
CO: $27.49
BTN: $80.00
SB: $48.75
Hero (BB): $87.30

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Q :diamond: A :diamond:
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, BTN raises to $2.00, SB calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.50, MP calls $1.50

Flop: ($8.00) J :diamond: Q :spade: K :diamond: (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.00, MP folds, BTN raises to $28.00, SB folds, Hero ???


thoughts on leading this flop? everyone seemed really passive including the PFR'er and I thought I'd get more value from the fish taking this line.

So we get raised huge by this passive looking guy. Do we want to get it in now and flip being this deep? Doubt we have any FE here but we do have 41% equity against the top of his range (sets, straights) and 46% if you add 2pairs and AA. Folding seems kind of yuck and calling just sets up a nice turn shove for him in case we brick. Thoughts?

I prefer squeezing pre but flatting is alright

on flop I think c/c > B/3B > c/r

c/c'ing keeps the fish in with worse draws should button c-bet, and you'll have enough equity to call most turns as well. B/3B'ing can be great vs aggressive opponents but the equity of a 22/11's Stack off range on this flop will likely be ahead of your hand.

Flop line doesn't matter too much I think. Leading seems fine against these passive types. It's really quite unfortunate that he raises like this, but he only needs to fold like once every two years, or sometimes turn over T8dd for us to make profit here.

I'd make it $50 to go and tank/call for show.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by caddie444

B/3B'ing can be great vs aggressive opponents but the equity of a 22/11's Stack off range on this flop will likely be ahead of your hand.

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Yeah but passive players usually do what they do best, they call. So when they call with their dead flushdraws we are super happy compared to when they check them behind.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by caddie444

on flop I think c/c > B/3B > c/r

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I would like c/c more if villain is UTG, but he is BTN so I think leading is fine vs these guys

- as played you should stack off

I don't really love leading here.

The main benefit to leading here, after saying ppl are passive, is that we think we have the best hand and we don't want it checking through multi-way, or we think we can run a multi-street bluff.

In this case, I don't think we have the best hand, so there is no real harm letting this check through. But we also have some SD value. I also don't think any hands better than ours are easily folding, so don't see many successful bluffing opportunities here.

As played, we definitely gotta just get it in now.

I would fold when he bombs it like this. With these stacks we aren't invested enough to be committed. He seems to be folding nearly never.

Leading is perfectly fine for fold equity / protection / implied odds / value. Its pretty valuable to have the betting lead when we have this many outs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Renton

I would fold when he bombs it like this. With these stacks we aren't invested enough to be committed. He seems to be folding nearly never.

Leading is perfectly fine for fold equity / protection / implied odds / value. Its pretty valuable to have the betting lead when we have this many outs.

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Board: Kd Qs Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.589% 42.75% 01.84% 12697 546.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 55.411% 53.57% 01.84% 15911 546.00 { KK-JJ, ATs, KQs, T9s, Td7d, ATo, KQo }

need 43.9 if my math is right

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

Board: Kd Qs Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.589% 42.75% 01.84% 12697 546.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 55.411% 53.57% 01.84% 15911 546.00 { KK-JJ, ATs, KQs, T9s, Td7d, ATo, KQo }

need 43.9 if my math is right

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Actually your math is incorrect, we need 44.7 which makes this a fold against that range.

ehh youre wrong but csb

Ok, I thought OP plays on FTP.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

Board: Kd Qs Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.589% 42.75% 01.84% 12697 546.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 55.411% 53.57% 01.84% 15911 546.00 { KK-JJ, ATs, KQs, T9s, Td7d, ATo, KQo }

need 43.9 if my math is right

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Yeah looks like you are right.

44.7% equity needed with $3 rake and no rakeback.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

44.7% equity needed with $3 rake and no rakeback.

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holy.. do ppl actually do equity calculations accounting for rake/rakeback? Serious question.

43.9% looks good to me otherwise.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

holy.. do ppl actually do equity calculations accounting for rake/rakeback? Serious question.

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Seems like some do and others don't. If you're a nosebleed baller then rake isn't going to affect your equity a whole lot now is it? At 50nl it can be the difference between call or fold as we can see in this hand.

For instance when doing 5bet shoving equity and range calculations you definitely need to take it into account at 100nl and below.

i agree its definitely important to be able to use rake in your estimations at the table, and in this example p4s was very observant to find that it could be responsible for a difference in action, i just dont think it is standard to add it to a theoretical discussion. additionally, while my range could certainly be too loose for some villains, i think it errs on the pessimistic side for our hand-

i can't conceive of folding the flop. I would call and see a turn. And lead any diamond/10 turn so he can't check back, though if I had any read that he wasn't an uber nit i'd just happily get it in on the flop.

Like the EV calcs show, we should just shove here now.

We might not get action if we hit our flush and then donk into him.