ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 132 ! (YTD: 75-74-1, +64.77 unit

YTD: 75-74-1
Units Won: +64.77

YES, FINALLY over 50% (hard to do when your average bet is at +156)!

Kicking off this thread a little earlier this week due to the games being earlier. Here we go!

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New England Patriots -6.5 (-104)
2 units at Matchbook

Yes, I know that like 80% of the public is on this play with me. And there's reverse line movement from 7 to 6.5. Yes, this does worry me.

But you know what? Last several years, it hasn't mattered who the public was on on Thanksgiving weekend. I've noticed that for big, nationwide holidays, the public actually does better. Why? I have no idea, but it seems that way.

Being the 11:30 game on Thursday following a game on Sunday means that these teams will have little to no preparation compared to normal. Which means that the straight up talent of the teams comes more into play, along with the familiarity of the players in their systems. Advantage: Patriots.

I've seen the Lions get rolled on Thanksgiving too many times in a row to let the reverse line movement get me off this play this time. If this is trap, I'm diving in headfirst!

And, as always, will blindly be taking any team in the 2nd half who is up 14+ at halftime. If I'm not able to post the bet at halftime, my apologies, but it is thanksgiving, and it's hard enough for me to get the best line at halftime sometimes without having to come back here and post it simultaneously. ^^

HOOOLY CRAP. Line moved to 6.

Okay, buying back my Patriots position at a loss.

And...

DETROIT LIONS M/L (+244)
3 units at Matchbook

Also, posting this before it's gone:

New York Jets -9.5 (-104)
1 unit at Matchbook

And PInnacle is now leaning on the 6!!!

Adding Detroit +6.5 (-109)
2 units at Matchbook

...what have I done?

Bob will be happy

taking your boys at +4 tonight?

Oi. Major lions fail. Oh well. DAMMIT BOB!!!!

That leaves me at -9 units for the day instead of +2 that I would have been without that line move.

Alas, 'tis life.

Yeah, spenda. I'm gonna be on UT tonight. I still think that it's silly for y'all to be favored IN AUSTIN.

They're up by 14, so.... here we go:

Adding New Orleans +.5 (-130)
to win 7.016 units at theGreek

Adding DALLAS/NEW ORLEANS UNDER 24 (-115)
1 unit at BetMania

Pinnacle is holding under 23.5 at -118, so...I figured this would be a +EV bet.

hi

ugh. Lost like $6k yesterday. Go away.

bye

k, lemme try that again. Well played, aggies.

Horrible start to the week {acronym renton hates}

but alas, I press on.

Posting this before it's gone

Carolina Panthers +10 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

Posting this before it's gone:

Tampa Bay +8 (-110)
2 units at Skybook

good luck Ed hope you turn it around

what do you think about the line movement on the Browns game after Delhomme was announced the starter, didn't seem to dip much on most sites but on 5dimes it moved from 10 to 8.5

I don't think the Browns are good enough to lay 10 to anyone, EVER. OR 8.5.

Line movement be damned.

obtw, what do you think of the 3 way tie in the big 12 that is prob going to screw y'all?

I'm pretty happy to be in the convo after we started 3-3

sucks though, OU is going and that means we beat both teams in the Big12 Championship Game. However, silver lining is we might get LSU/Bama in the Cotton or even Arizona in the Alamo. Either way I'm going.

Adding:

Falcons -1.5 (109)
2 units at Matchbook

As far as reasoning goes, I'm taking the Panthers because I don't think teh Browns are good enough to lay 10 to ANYONE, even the Panthers. Taking Tampa Bay because Pinnacle is leaning on +7.5 (-113). And taking the Falcons because I like Matt Ryan at home, plus it's one of Ace's picks.

Adding:

Chicago Bears M/L (+153)
2 units at Matchbook

line started at +3.5 (-115) and with most people betting on Philadelphia, line moved to +3.

Adding Jacksonville M/L (+295)
1 unit at Matchbook

Trying to get my offer filled on Carolina M/L +400

I'll update this thread if it gets taken.

Adding: Carolina +9.5 (-108)
1 unit at Matchbook

Pinny's leaning on them pretty hard. Still haven't gotten my offer for hte moneyline accepted yet.

Whoops, spoke too soon. Got my unit at matchbook filled for:

Carolina M/L (+400)
1 unit at Matchbook

Allright, I'm off to the Texans game!

As always, will blindly be taking any team up by 14+ at halftime for the second half.

Also, WOOHOOOOOOOOOOO TEXAAAAAAAAAAAAANSSS!!!

Stupid MFer Finnegan. I hope Andre doesn't get suspended because of what happened.

and Texans 2nd half pk (-120) won, so woohoo! BIG thanks to GLOVER QUIN for his two interceptions that helped seal the shutout, since Kubiak decided that 17 points was enough and there was no further need to score. :roll:

Adding Bears +3 (+105) 2nd Half
4 units between BetTrojan and Betphoenix.

Also, Ravens -2.5 (-114)
To Win 6.84 units at Matchbook since they're up by 14

Wow so this was a nice sunday for you eh?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

Wow so this was a nice sunday for you eh?

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doesn't look like it just from the last 5-6 plays ITT, not sure if you realize some of these were halftime plays

yeah didnt realize that oops...sorry