Defending against draws

I hate positions like these. Too often i just shove, which is bad. Lets assume villain is on a flush draw with an over card to our Qs. Therefore he has approximately 45% equity. How do i play this hand?
Note: this assumption is essential to my question. I do understand that it is other, non-draw hands in his range that allow us to value bet the flop profitably, though it is still pretty thin.

So, given the premise, if i shove he has equity to call. If i bet, how do i size my bet to extract value? i.e. pot odds (%) > villains equity (%). I can't.
Do we check behind and pray that the turn misses his range? If it misses then his equity is sufficiently reduced that we can make a value bet on the turn. Should the turn hit his range then its a cheap, easy fold. I hate the idea of giving him a free card.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1.91)
SB ($4.25)
BB ($5)
UTG ($5.05)
MP1 ($5)
Hero (MP2) ($10.35)
CO ($4.81)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
UTG bets $0.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20, 2 folds, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.65) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.65

i would play the same.... if he chases and hit , nothing you can do... poker.... i lost today a lot to chasers, i bet they chase, i shove, they chase/// just pray they dont hit... my prays were not listened today...

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Originally Posted by Razvan729

i would play the same.... if he chases and hit , nothing you can do... poker.... i lost today a lot to chasers, i bet they chase, i shove, they chase/// just pray they dont hit... my prays were not listened today...

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:D praying is -EV. If my math is right, potting the turn here -EV against a flush draw with an over card.

long run we're +, but fucks up your day losing hand after hand due to a dumb jackass...

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Originally Posted by Razvan729

long run we're +, but fucks up your day losing hand after hand due to a dumb jackass...

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We aren't a dumb jackass if we are the villain in this hand.

If villain has 45% equity and we pot the flop, pot odds to call are 33%.
pot odds = equity = 0 EV
pot odds < equity = + EV
pot odds > equity = -EV
Somebody please correct me if i'm wrong.

not on the flop, but that means pot odds up to river, but he thinks he gets flush on turn, that makes no pot odds to him with poted flop. he has 9 outs on the turn so that gives him 20% to make hand on turn and he is paying 33% of the pot to see the turn... so its -.

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Originally Posted by Razvan729

not on the flop, but that means pot odds up to river, but he thinks he gets flush on turn, that makes no pot odds to him with poted flop. he has 9 outs on the turn so that gives him 20% to make hand on turn and he is paying 33% of the pot to see the turn... so its -.

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12 outs but meh. Ok, one of us is not applying the 2 and 4 rule properly. It is prob. me. Can somebody please confirm.

4 is when you take turn and river , like he has to pay 33% of the pot and he is all in... that means he doesnt pay another bet on the turn, that gives him 36% to get the flush (4*9=36%)

2 is when he pays 33% pot to see the turn(he is not all in), 9*2=18% chance to get flush.... he doesnt get the flush, he will again on the turn same math... so its -

Yeah. Your right. F i am retarded. Its 12 outs bc we gave him an over-card to our Qs.

even so its not +... to 33% pot he need 17 outs to make it + on turn or river///

On the flop if you shove your $4.85 (remaining effective stacks) you offer him pot odds of 4.85/(0.65+4.85+4.85)=46.86%

His equity against your hand with for example As8s is 48.08%. So indeed he would not make a mistake by calling.

That is why you do not shove. You bet the pot, and he makes a mistake by calling your bet to see a SINGLE card, because you give him pot odds of 33% and he has only about 25.5% chance to improve on the turn (12 cards out of 47).

If he does hit, you don't put anymore money in the pot (and to make it simple let's say you loose the hand every time he hits).

If he does not hit, you bet the pot again ($1.95) and he has another chance to make a second mistake by calling, because he again is facing 33% pot odds and he again has about only 26.1% chance to improve (12 cards out of 46).

So the EV calculation of the above play is as follows if he calls twice:
0.255*(-$0.65)+0.745*[0.261*(-$0.65-$1.95)+0.739*($0.65+$0.65+$1.95)]=$1.12

or in English: 25.5% of the time he hits on the turn and you loose the $0.65 you bet on the flop. The remaining 74.5% of the time, he does not hit on the turn and you bet the pot again. He calls and 26.1% of the time he hits on the river and you loose the $1.95 you bet on the turn and the $0.65 you invested on the flop. 73.9% of the time he does not hit on the river and your total profit is the dead money that was in the pot on the flop ($0.65) plus his flop call ($0.65) plus his turn call ($1.95).

The same play is +EV even if he has AsKs, do the calcs.

With AsKs though, it would be mathematically correct for him to open shove the flop if he knows you will call, because you can't call profitably (pot odds 46.86%, your equity 45.4%). However, if he check raises all in your pot sized bet and you call, you don't make a mistake. Do the math.

Also, you have to turn your mind around: with the above play, you are not "defending against a draw": in fact, you extract value from a draw. When you bet, you should hope he calls (or even check raises you). In a tournament it may be different, but in a cash game, you definitely want this guy to put money in the pot.

Sounds like the first step you need to work on is understanding that poker involves the long term and not just one hand. Shoving is abso retarded and if you think that it's the only way to extract value then you should probably just play hyper turbos where it's profitable to get it in preflop with like 75% of hands.

Don't be a pussy and let him try to hit his draw. So what if he does? You lose a small to medium sized pot. If he doesn't you win. Probability says he hits less than you hold so therein lies your profit. If you were to shove every hand where you are ahead you ensure that you'll never move past 5NL because people aren't going to be calling off garbage for a full stack nearly enough to compensate for them only calling the nuts.

Try to shift your thinking from "defending against draws" to "getting value from draws".

on 2-tone flops, you've always got to put some draws in anyone's continuing range, though rarely it is ever the entirety of their range, and rarely does anyone fold to a PSB or less. When the 3rd flush card comes in, keep this range in mind and continue accordingly.

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Originally Posted by Openside

We aren't a dumb jackass if we are the villain in this hand.

If villain has 45% equity and we pot the flop, pot odds to call are 33%.
pot odds = equity = 0 EV
pot odds < equity = + EV
pot odds > equity = -EV
Somebody please correct me if i'm wrong.

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You're wrong because you aren't taking into account the future betting.

@ op, nice post

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Originally Posted by Openside

I hate positions like these. Too often i just shove, which is bad.

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shoving here is bad, you're right.

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Originally Posted by Openside

Lets assume villain is on a flush draw with an over card to our Qs. Therefore he has approximately 45% equity. How do i play this hand?
So, given the premise, if i shove he has equity to call. If i bet, how do i size my bet to extract value? i.e. pot odds (%) > villains equity (%). I can't.

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first thing is most important - Asssuming villain's calling range consists exclusively of say As8s (= forgetting the value you get from 78/79/88-JJ/etc) villain only has decent equity over two streets. But he isn't calling to two streets. If you are able to fold on spade/ace turns then he is calling to 12 outs meaning he only has about 25% to hit vs the 33% he needs to call if you pot it here. You don't need to worry too much as long as you don't give him crazy implied odds, and that's up to you.

Then if turn is a blank then you can fire again and he again has low odds to hit.

Hope that makes sense?

also,

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Originally Posted by d0zer

Try to shift your thinking from "defending against draws" to "getting value from draws".

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also

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Originally Posted by Openside

12 outs but meh. Ok, one of us is not applying the 2 and 4 rule properly. It is prob. me. Can somebody please confirm.

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you got it dude. Get in irc if you're still stuck. Where in nz you at?