TP in position

Villain is 19/17/inf with 16.7% 3b over 63 hands

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem

Stacks:
UTG gryczkaa ($25)
CO Hero ($25)
BTN IPlayOnlyAAKK ($41.79)
SB fishsticks6 ($41.33)
BB TheFrank13 ($84.15)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is CO :qd: :kh:
gryczkaa raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: :2d: :8s: :ks: ($1.85, 2 players)
gryczkaa bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: :ts: ($4.85, 2 players)
gryczkaa bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

River: :th: ($11.85, 2 players)
gryczkaa bets $6.25, $6.25 to Hero ($19.25)?

In order to call the river bet we need 34.5% equity. He could be value betting quite a few hands though.

Hand 0: 67.391% 67.39% 00.00% 31 0.00 { KK+, 88, 22, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KTs, QsJs, Qs9s, Js9s, AQo+, AcJs, AdJs, AhJs, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, KTo }
Hand 1: 32.609% 32.61% 00.00% 15 0.00 { KhQd }

This was my first attempt at a range for him and surprisingly it came out very close to the equity we need. I put in AQo and AsJx and AxJs as bluffs he might have. That's only 18 combos of bluffs. So, I'm really not sure about this hand because it seems like he's bluffing here with any frequency then this is a call.

Also, if he cbets this board with most of his range then he might also continue betting on the turn with lots of hands that have spades and when they miss the river he might fire another bet. This could be wishful thinking though.

Thoughts?

surely you should be folding pre if you aren't raising that flop?

I agree, definitely raise the flop.

id jam river if he can find a fold button

in my experience it never works at 25nl, but moreso at 50nl.

don't like cold-calling the utg open with KQo because there's so few hands you dominate.

postflop is fine and i'd call the river too.

the character of the board changed alot on the turn and river and he just keeps firing. he's fos here a fair amount of the time.

I'd say jam now but if we are thinking about calling then we should fold turn.

And I'd 3bet bluff preflop or fold most of the time. Depends on huge reads/if fish will likely call behind.

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Originally Posted by daven

surely you should be folding pre if you aren't raising that flop?

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Not sure I see your logic there. What are you hoping calls us when you raise the flop? Explanation appreciated :p

My thoughts are if he's aggressive like his stats indicate then he might be cbetting this flop with hands like 99, TT, JJ, 98s, FD's which we can get value from later but prob fold to a raise. We also make him fold bluffs when we raise, which might not necesarily continue bluffing later but could make a weak showdown hand worse than ours.

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In order to call the river bet we need 34.5% equity.

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Your pot odds are 25.7%, so for a call you need minimum 25.7% equity, not 34.5%.

Consider folding pre. Fold river. List the hands he bets the river with that you beat.

Preflop is marginal, I'd definitely fold river.

I'm with the fold pre brigade.

meh if this was full ring and we were ut1 i would fold pre but as it stands unless we are getting squeezed a ton then i am not folding this.

I do not see why people want to raise the flop/jam the river so some help from m2m or daven would be nice in that regard... i guess i could see the river jam because his bet is so weak that it looks like he can fold his AK/AA if we shove so we would be turning our hand into a bluff (not a bad thing)

I'm not seeing the raising the flop reasoning outside of balancing your flop raising range

3betting preflop is fine but so is flatting.
as played I'd fold the turn since he's not barreling this card with worse very often. Failing that fold the river.

do NOT fold pre, if he's opening tight enough you want to fold but isn't only opening the uber nuts then 3b. also there is no NEED to raise the flop here it's actually pretty fin bad here.

oh like DC said, probably fold turn if not then definitely fold the river.

depending on his turn barreling range ldo

cool yea I agree with all that. I think without better reads the turn is close but while I was playing I was kinda focused on the fact that he might be really aggro and bad so I was tempted to call down.

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

do NOT fold pre

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Ok, this is 5-handed, and I've had this discussion before when I joined this site. Do we assume an UTG range for opener, or a HJ range? When I'm playing 5-handed, I'm still very tight from UTG, and still assume UTG is raising tight unless I see showdowns to tell me otherwise. That's why I fold, but if this is a leak I need to address it. I have respect for a 19/17 UTG 5-handed, maybe too much respect. Is it reasonable to think villain could be raising KTs and the like?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Ok, this is 5-handed, and I've had this discussion before when I joined this site. Do we assume an UTG range for opener, or a HJ range? When I'm playing 5-handed, I'm still very tight from UTG, and still assume UTG is raising tight unless I see showdowns to tell me otherwise. That's why I fold, but if this is a leak I need to address it. I have respect for a 19/17 UTG 5-handed, maybe too much respect. Is it reasonable to think villain could be raising KTs and the like?

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If you're playing 5-handed and you're 2 off of the button, that's the same as if you're 6-handed and the guy 3 off of the button folds. All under the gun means is that you're the first person to act. I mean if you're the first person to act 4-handed, are you saying you should open similar ranges as if you're the first person to act 10-handed? You're not the first person to ask this, but come on.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I mean if you're the first person to act 4-handed, are you saying you should open similar ranges as if you're the first person to act 10-handed? You're not the first person to ask this, but come on.

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No, not at all, but do we play tighter in UTG 5-handed as maybe HJ 9-handed when folded round?

If a game is 9-handed and it's folded round to HJ, who opens, I give him a looser range, obviously, than when he opens UTG. But if I then play this same player 5-handed, should his UTG opening range be similar to his HJ opening range 9-handed? Or should we play tighter? I realise I'm probably asking dumb questions, but I'm folding KTs UTG 5-handed, and maybe not 9-handed when folded to me at the HJ. Am I playing too tight UTG 5-handed, and assuming too tight an opening range for players in this position?

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But if I then play this same player 5-handed, should his UTG opening range be similar to his HJ opening range 9-handed?

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Yes because it's the same situation. Your position is defined by the number of seats you are from the button, not how many players folded before you.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Yes because it's the same situation. Your position is defined by the number of seats you are from the button, not how many players folded before you.

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Ok thanks. I decided to play some short handed poker tonight, and did quite well, finished 38th out of 1000. That was 4-handed, where I usually loosen up, I think 5-handed is a bit of a grey area for me, probably because it's where I have the least experience.

Given how aggro he is isn't he probably barreling that turn with a lot of A/Q/Js and giving up on the river? folding turn seems more std if he's not barreling 'cos he picked up equities and stoof. as played i don't really like jamming because everyones a station, really good at calling, etc

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Originally Posted by kfaess

re

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Originally Posted by daven

surely you should be folding pre if you aren't raising that flop?

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Not sure I see your logic there. What are you hoping calls us when you raise the flop? Explanation appreciated

My thoughts are if he's aggressive like his stats indicate then he might be cbetting this flop with hands like 99, TT, JJ, 98s, FD's which we can get value from later but prob fold to a raise. We also make him fold bluffs when we raise, which might not necesarily continue bluffing later but could make a weak showdown hand worse than ours.

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I like 3-betting pre vs his wide range, I also think that calling pre is fine as it keeps his range wide and you're fine against his range - thing is, this means that his range after his flop bet is still wide. He is c-betting everything on this board and you're ahead a lot, he's also going to call a raise with a lot of bluff-catcher types of hands IF he thinks you can be fos some (e.g. raise 99/AsJs/etc). I agree about the types of hands you think he may be c-betting, i'm just not convinced hat he will fold them to a raise. It's easier to get money in on the flop as there are so many turn cards that will mean you're upset about life (spades/aces/jacks that you'll probably want to check back if checked to) and will have to fold to any turn noise cos you don't really have any reads and TP2k. These same turn cards will fuck with your chances of multi-street value vs his weak made hands too.

I note that zzzz seems to disagree, so i'm actually looking forward to being convinced i'm wrong cos that's a good way to learn pokerz.

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

do NOT fold pre, if he's opening tight enough you want to fold but isn't only opening the uber nuts then 3b. also there is no NEED to raise the flop here it's actually pretty fin bad here.

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Cool, thanks daven. That explanation makes sense to me and thinking more about it I feel like raising the flop or not comes down to reads. In this case we don't have good enough reads one way or the other in order to be confident that our choice for raising/not raising is definitely correct.

Sooo, I feel like we should have a basic assumption here about most players with his stats and we should go with our assumption. For example, let's say 70% of players at these limits with stats like his are likely to call a flop raise with those hands we mentioned. 30% are likely to fold. Therefore our assumption should be that he'll call with worse hands and that raising the flop is good. We operate under this assumption until he proves to us that he's one of the 30%.

I haven't logged a huge amount of hands at 25NL, but just based on my gut feeling I would lean towards making the assumption that more players with his stats are capable of folding worse hands than are likely to call.

Comments on this?