Trips/Top Kicker Facing Super Confuzzing Line

villain here is 21/14. the stats i checked seemed to indicate that he's a tad raisy on flops, but i didn't have any specific reads on him involving those pots. obv only 6 combos beat us, but wtf is going on in this hand?!

$0.50/$1 Ante $0.20 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG bob2007 ($136.35)
CO Hero ($260.30)
BTN mdaley1988 ($475.80)
SB pureprofit4 ($250)
BB TOMBATLE ($347.90)

Pre-Flop: ($2.50, 5 players) Hero is CO :qs: :kh:
bob2007 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 1 fold, pureprofit4 calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: :kc: :ks: :as: ($11, 3 players)
pureprofit4 checks, bob2007 checks, Hero bets $8, pureprofit4 folds, bob2007 raises to $24, Hero calls $16

Turn: :2h: ($59, 2 players)
bob2007 bets $38, Hero ?

You pretty much have the nuts here. I'd be very surprised to see AA or AK c/r the flop instead of c/c or bet out himself.

I'd probably shove the turn.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

I'd probably shove the turn.

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why?

Cause I'd imagine JTss and QJss will call a shove, and worse Kx will def b/c, whereas a spade or A river will kill our action.

The benefit to flatting would be if a spade falls and he bluff shoves it, but I don't think a spade is an ideal card for us anyhow.

I'm not sure how much pure air is c/r, betting turn AND shoving a brick river on this board.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Cause I'd imagine JTss and QJss will call a shove, and worse Kx will def b/c, whereas a spade or A river will kill our action.

The benefit to flatting would be if a spade falls and he bluff shoves it, but I don't think a spade is an ideal card for us anyhow.

I'm not sure how much pure air is c/r, betting turn AND shoving a brick river on this board.

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we block QJss. I think that his line is so dumb that he can have bluffs and will likely go for the home run on the river. Either way, I don't think cards will really kill our action, theres too little money left to be bet.

Yah I guess whenever I view about half pot left on river, I'm more inclined to just ship turns, since I think ppl's bluffing frequency gets pretty low in that scenario.

I think this is a common situation where red-line-oriented players like yourself and I differ. Shoves like this are red-line fabulous but I don't see how shoving is otherwise beneficial.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Yah I guess whenever I view about half pot left on river, I'm more inclined to just ship turns, since I think ppl's bluffing frequency gets pretty low in that scenario.

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I would tend to agree with this statement on board textures where there are lots of semibluffs. However, we hold the Qs so there really aren't any except JT of spades.

Call and pray that the river is a spade so that you can fold this garbage.

Jamming is perfectly fine as well.

Bah long post got deleted.

It doesn't rly matter if you shove or call here, he's a nit that opened utg so he won't have many bluffs here. I'd rather reintroduce folding to the mix instead of debating shove or call.

Board: Ks Kc As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.022% 17.60% 07.42% 1568 661.50 { KhQs }
Hand 1: 74.978% 67.55% 07.42% 6019 661.50 { AA, AKs, KTs+, AKo }

How often is he spazzing?

+1 to what alexos said.

I'd either 3 bet pre as a bluff or fold as well.

and yeah pre is bad, just fold.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

Bah long post got deleted.

It doesn't rly matter if you shove or call here, he's a nit that opened utg so he won't have many bluffs here. I'd rather reintroduce folding to the mix instead of debating shove or call.

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I wouldn't call 21/14 a nit. WE also don't ha any information on his positional tendencies. Some of these guys play weird, and open wider utg than they do LP.

He also stated a tendency to raise flops, so I'd say a person like that by default is more likely to run some sort of move.

any EP stats please? AF?

Don't have access to my PT3 right now, but sample size was like 200 hands and we had no history together. He had like a 40 ATS so he's positionally aware but i'd hardly assign him an UTG range.

I checked his stats live and he was 5/25 c/r'ing flops, but no reads on what hands and if he'd done it as the pfr.

funny part, is that you should not in theory have a had that can call chraise+bet/shove from PFR like hardly ever, on this board given preflop

however, he probably doesnt know that. And stacks are not deep enough, to go for crazy theoretical chraise+bet+shove

honestly, i don`t mind folding somewhere by the river. Its a good spot for him to check AK/AA on the board to give opponents to catch up at least with something, as he has it locked down (and its hard for you two too give him any action, when he blocks out so many combos that can call a cbet on this board)

Also there are just not too many weaker Kx combos, in his UTG PFR range (and he will not play them all 100% time this way, anyways, he`ll bet-bet-bet a lot % time trying to get value from Ax)
Us having Qs also blocks many semibluff spazes (which he`ll cbet the flop most % time if he wanted to continue most % time anyways)

I'd call turn as played, I think there is a lot of merit to 3betting flop.

call turn for sure, even moreso when taking balance issues into consideration.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

and yeah pre is bad, just fold.

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i don't agree

Folding pre seems extremely nitty in a game with 20% antes.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

Folding pre seems extremely nitty in a game with 20% antes.

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210,613,392 games 0.235 secs 896,227,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.524% 56.57% 03.95% 119143660 8327110.50 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 39.476% 35.52% 03.95% 74815511 8327110.50 { KcQs }


I assigned him the top 10% of hands here, and we ain't doin so well with all kinds of reverse implied odds going down.

And when you take out some of these hands he may not open, like ATo and QTs, and put in SCs instead, we're still doing shite.

Fold pre imo.

Pre is a call, if marginally so.

Unclesteve, preflop all in equities tend lack relevance to situations other than when deciding whether to play a hand for all in preflop.

Any merit to this line?

$0.50/$1 Ante $0.20 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG bob2007 ($136.35)
CO Hero ($260.30)
BTN mdaley1988 ($475.80)
SB pureprofit4 ($250)
BB TOMBATLE ($347.90)

Pre-Flop: ($2.50, 5 players) Hero is CO :qs: :kh:
bob2007 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 1 fold, pureprofit4 calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: :kc: :ks: :as: ($11, 3 players)
pureprofit4 checks, bob2007 checks, Hero bets $8, pureprofit4 folds, bob2007 raises to $24, Hero calls $16

Turn: :2h: ($59, 2 players)
bob2007 bets $38, Hero calls $38

River: :3s: ($135, 2 players)
bob2007 goes all-in $71.15, Hero folds

Final Pot: $206.15

bob2007 wins $204.15 (net +$67.80)

pureprofit4 lost $3.20
Hero lost $65.20

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

Folding pre seems extremely nitty in a game with 20% antes.

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Didn't realise there were antes, but your statement is way too general. We're playing vs a positionally aware 20/14 player..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Renton

Pre is a call, if marginally so.

Unclesteve, preflop all in equities tend lack relevance to situations other than when deciding whether to play a hand for all in preflop.

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hhmmm- that's an interesting point, care to expand on it a little?

I mean, for the most part I'd say we beat a bluff and some worse Kx.

I don't think he plays that many FD's this way.

So given that.. I'd say most of the range that we were beating, we're still beating on the river, as he'd prob still jam Kx for half pot on riv and will prob also jam his bluffs.

Eh river is close but I think fold is fine. I don't think its too out of the question that he plays a flush draw this way. If he took a lot of time on the river and then shoved id probably call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by unclesteve

hhmmm- that's an interesting point, care to expand on it a little?

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With deep stacks, postflop hand playability, skill advantage, and positional advantage are often much more important than preflop equities. Reverse implied odds are also less of a factor if we don't suck postflop. preflop equities become a lot more important with much shallower stacks, or if you're building a low flop SPR with preflop aggression.

I think pre is fine unless we expect a lot of squeezing, which we shouldn't usually with the UTG opener.

this is an obvious call down, u can fold the river if u have a massive sample and are completely sure he has the nuts and is dumb to play it like this. never 3bet flop, never jam turn ever.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Eh river is close but I think fold is fine. I don't think its too out of the question that he plays a flush draw this way. If he took a lot of time on the river and then shoved id probably call.

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The fd hit, although I kinda doubt he has one. He basically is repping two hands.

i mean here's the thing. sometimes in poker when he can rep every nut hand and you hold the best hand you are likely to ever hold, you gotta click cawl and hope he has A4s or whatever. sucks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by d0zer

With deep stacks, postflop hand playability, skill advantage, and positional advantage are often much more important than preflop equities. Reverse implied odds are also less of a factor if we don't suck postflop. preflop equities become a lot more important with much shallower stacks, or if you're building a low flop SPR with preflop aggression.

I think pre is fine unless we expect a lot of squeezing, which we shouldn't usually with the UTG opener.

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makes sense, ty