TPTK keep on value betting? 50nl

SB is whale station
UTG+1 is 36-4 over 40, no aggro, got some of his stack by limp-calling AA from utg, then c-calling J93hhd, Js, then a river checked through 8d.
So, his calling range on this flop is all sets, all Kx, KT/T7s, QJ, AJ, AQ/89s/J9s.
I doubt his turn calling range is much different.
Thoughts on turn and river sizing?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($111.25)
SB ($35.10)
BB ($77.35)
Hero (UTG) ($50)
UTG+1 ($61)
MP1 ($52.75)
MP2 ($50)
MP3 ($25.50)
CO ($63.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K:spade:, A:heart:
Hero bets $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75, 5 folds, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.75) 10:diamond:, K:heart:, 7:spade: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4, SB calls $4

Turn: ($17.75) 5:diamond: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, UTG+1 calls $12, 1 fold

River: ($41.75) 6:club: (2 players)
Hero bets $xx,

You forgot KK/TT/77/55/K7s for villain's range.

Here's a better range I think:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

124 games 0.005 secs 24,800 games/sec

Board: Td Kh 7s 5d 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.968% 68.55% 02.42% 85 3.00 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 29.032% 26.61% 02.42% 33 3.00 { TT, 77, 55, AQs+, ATs, K9s+, K7s, QTs+, JTs, T8s+, 98s, AQo+, ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, 98o }


So I would bet/fold about $15.

'all sets',
i bet $12 planning to bet-fold - so seems we're thinking along similar lines here

shove for value vs looser/weaker guys, with higher vpip/wtsd, lower fold vs cbets on all streets
bet-fold like 20-26$ vs tighter, more solid guys

Well it is either shove or bluffcatch or fold and against a passive just shove

Guys, but don't you think villain folds AT or K2s to a shove?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

Well it is either shove or bluffcatch or fold and against a passive just shove

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i think its a pretty clear shove.

this is one of those spots where it might be somewhat better to bet less than what's left instead of the rest.

Shoving is just fine. betting like 15.75/f could be better.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Renton

this is one of those spots where it might be somewhat better to bet less than what's left instead of the rest.

Shoving is just fine. betting like 15.75/f could be better.

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I like this, simply because I think a lot of his Tx hands fold to a jam but probably snap call 15-16. I could also see you getting looked up by like 88 99 here some of the time if you bet smaller. I've been noticing that even these stationy players have a fold button vs 3 streets these days so there is certainly merit in not jamming.

B/F 16 on river.

bet $12, villain called KT. Interesting hand.

I'm def in the b/f like $14 camp

Its close but I'd shove because his most likely hand is AK IMO and lol at us value shoving worse

Why are people recommending betting $15ish then folding to a CIB(shove)?

just shove, villain probably sucks

With some other villain description I could see bet/folding whatever, but in this case I'd just jam. Anyway my line would be 4.5, 14.5, shovel