KK fml

I have 610 hands on the villian in question and this is the second time he's done this. He's on several tables running 21/17 7% 3b. The jury is still out if he's a decent lag, a drooler, or just a spazz.

I'm running looser than the average TAG, though I'm not sure he notices at all. And if he does I'm not sure if he knows what to do with this info.

initial opener is a giant fish
UTG ($125.80)
UTG+1 ($149.25)
MP1 ($102.50)
MP2 ($111.45)
Hero (CO) ($100)
Button ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is CO with XX

UTG calls $1, 1 fold, MP1 bets $5, 1 fold, Hero calls $5, 2 folds, BB calls $4, UTG calls $4

Flop: ($20.50) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $5, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, BB raises to $95 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero folds

Total pot: $49.50 | Rake: $2.45




Off to the hand in question. Initial opener is v tight with a high fold to 3b precentage. I have no idea if he's trying to rep a 4 with a FD or trying to rep a FD with a 4. Or he even could be doing something mind numblingly stupid with JJ TT here because he doesn't suspect I can have KK AA. I could count combos all day but I have no idea if my range is accurate. What Do.

SB ($100)
BB ($105.05)
UTG ($111.85)
UTG+1 ($101.50)
MP1 ($168.60)
MP2 ($56)
Hero (MP3) ($111.40)
CO ($176.15)
Button ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
2 folds, MP1 bets $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($14.50) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $8, 1 fold, BB raises to $101.55 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero

I'd fold. If he does have a general tendency to spaz like this with draws or mid pairs, you'll find out soon enough and can milk it from them on. But he may just do this with the nuts hoping someone will call him light. Wait for someone else to call and give you the info for cheap.

Are those stats biased by short-handedness = have you got your hud set up so that it only displays stats from hands with >6 players once you're 9-handed? this is pretty important in this spot.

I think that villain's 7% 3b combined with an opener having a very high fold to 3b is important here - surely he'll squeeze TT-QQ a non-zero amount = i discount these hands some. vs the nut flush draw you are about 60%. Shove would be pretty stupid with 88/TT with that many players in, and i don't think you can be confident that he's that stupid.

I like a fold cos we both know i'm a nit, although that is complicated by the fact that i'm a station, so maybe in game i'd call. It's close.

Board: 9s 4s 4h
Dead:

Hand 0: 58.400% 58.40% 00.00% 10985 0.00 { QcQs, QhQs, JdJh, JhJs, TcTs, TdTs, 99, 44, AsQs, AsJs, A4s, As3s, 64s, 54s}

Hand 1: 41.600% 41.60% 00.00% 7825 0.00 { KcKh }

edit: what's with your sizing in the first hand? like, you never really have a nut hand when you do this on this board.