2nl. TPTK dry board getting 3:1 on river

here is the hand: weaktight.com/3377169

-Villain is 19/13 and is playing very straightforwardly. Having said that, I want to fold this river but I have a hard time putting hands in villains range that beat me. With the 7 pairing on the turn I cannot see any hands containing a 7 in which this player is getting to the flop with.

On the river I think his range is MAYBE KQ+and 44. I actually don't even think that he would play KQ like this and AK is so unlikely given that this player limped in and I also have AK. Thoughts? Can I play this hand any differently? And more importantly, can I fold here?

Added hand for better viewing. Don't post results
$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG zui1 ($1.54)
CO aerodyne1 ($3.41)
BTN cuba3006 ($1)
SB sumfak ($3.39)
BB Hero ($2.11)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 5 players) Hero is BB :kd: :ac:
zui1 calls $0.02, aerodyne1 calls $0.02, cuba3006 calls $0.02, sumfak calls $0.01, Hero raises to $0.16, zui1 folds, aerodyne1 folds, cuba3006 folds, sumfak calls $0.14

Flop: :kh: :7c: :4s: ($0.38, 2 players)
sumfak checks, Hero bets $0.28, sumfak calls $0.28

Turn: :7s: ($0.94, 2 players)
sumfak checks, Hero bets $0.60, sumfak calls $0.60

River: :2c: ($2.14, 2 players)
sumfak bets $1.08

the old call call lead, most of the time its the nuts

What range do you think a 19/13 limp/calls an 8x raise with in the SB?

So when you bet this flop, which hands in his range do you expect to get value from? Same question on the turn after he called your flop bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daviddem

What range do you think a 19/13 limp/calls an 8x raise with in the SB?

So when you bet this flop, which hands in his range do you expect to get value from? Same question on the turn after he called your flop bet.

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Preflop his range will be tight, something like: (KJs+,22-99,AJ+)

On the flop I'm getting value from the worse K's in his range and probably 88-TT

On the turn I'm getting value from KJ,KQ and that is probably it, because I really do not expect that this player will call with much worse than that. I think this is a villain who I should choose not to v-bet too thinly as an overall game plan, but during the hand I did not recognize how thin my bet actually was. I will work on thinking about hands this way in the future and hopefully I will make less errors.

Daviddem, do you have any other comments about the hand that may be helpful?

Personally I think that he never calls preflop with KJs+ OOP after your show of strength of raising 8x into 4 limpers. His hand would be dominated by most of your range. It's also doubtful that he calls the flop with second pair because the K hits your range hard.

But OK let's be optimistic and say he continues with JJ-77,44,KJs+ so you can make a value bet on the flop. As you say yourself, he doesn't continue with his second pairs on the turn, so his continuing range on the turn becomes 77,44,KJs+. Against this range, your equity is significantly less than 50%.

Still want to bet the turn?

River, what else could you do than fold, he is never going to do that with KJs+, is he?

Stats like 19/13 are clearly set mining stats. If he limp calls pre, more often than not it's with a pocket pair.

Check turn imo

microstakes must be a total nitfest nowadays b/c every thread people are advocating folding these big hands for nice prices

think it's fairly important to note he completes the SB then calls closing the action PF

this alone widens his range enough to make me want to call here