99 vs Decent Reg CO vs BU

Villain is 21/19 9% 3-bet and 13% 3-bet on the BU. He's certianly one of the more solid regs in these games, but obviously that doesn't say too much.

Given how light he is in this spot I'm torn between flatting and 4-bet/calling. Thinking the latter may well be better since we're oop and getting fucked a lot postflop here. We don't have any solid reads on his preflop game in 3-bet pots. So my first question is flat or 4-bet/call? I mean I guess folding's not totally out of the picture but meh we ought to have +EV continuing options here.

On the river he pretty much has Ax or air. If he'd bet a bit more here I think I like call, butnot convinced this guy's smart enough to shape his sizing to rep Ax really well as a bluff. But then, if he is capable of this it's going to be a snap call needing only 23% or w/e. My 2nd question is: Call or fold river?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($89.40)
BB ($15.85)
UTG ($22.25)
Hero (MP) ($50)
Button ($69.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9:diamond:, 9:heart:
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, Button raises $5, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.75) 7:diamond:, 6:diamond:, 10:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $5.65, Hero calls $5.65

Turn: ($22.05) 6:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($22.05) A:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $9.30, Hero?

river kinda looks like a please call me bet, and id except him to fire JJ+ most of the time on the turn, putting you on hands like 88/99.

here's one thing i find about these spots: you figure damn 99 is a good starting hand and it's ahead of his 3betting button range, the problem is more or less that it sucks having a player like this to your immediate left, they can punish you all day and you can't really do much about it. fact is if you 4bet/call you'll often see a better hand and then you'll tell yourself man i keep running into the top of his range. he's just folding his bluffs and getting in better, say TT+/AK here.
if you start flatting 4bets oop he's prob the type of player (you said decent reg) who will punish you by barreling lots of boards that again are hard to play because you're oop.

my only reason to 4bet/call here is if he has been able to successfully 5bet-bluff shove you in the past knowing you will 4bet bluff him because you think he's getting outta line. otherwise just fold pre and maybe find a better table with less aggro 3bettors to your immediate left.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bspahn

just fold pre and maybe find a better table with less aggro 3bettors to your immediate left.

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This.

Pre: I'll 4bet/call vs this guy.

River: Without history, fold as this looks too much like a suck bet.

@ bspahn - true, I kind of hate flatting in this spot oop with 99 vs someone decent and aggro. However with 99 we're still going to have pretty decent equity that the times he folds will make us easily enough in the way of dead money to make 4-bet/call +EV.

If his range is something like TT+,33-22,AQs+,AQo+ we have a whopping 44% and given this is CO vs BU and he's aware of his image etc etc and that I'm an aware reg also, I think it's reasonable to give him at least some 5 bet bluffs. Even without these 4-bet/call should still be fine due to how much of his range he's folding and how much we win when this happens.

How does villain view you? Do you have any history at all?

Without any history, I don't think you can 4bet call. A lot of these regs will 5bet shove with only JJ+/AK, (especially at 100nl and lower) even though they are 3betting so much. If he is the type of reg who does this, then you should be 4bet bluffing him a lot in these spots.

Before calling, I would look at his cbetting frequency. If he cbets the flop, turn and river a lot, I might just fold this preflop because we are going to get owned on a lot of boards. If he is not overly aggressive postflop, then calling is good/standard.

How polarised his 3betting range is, is important here, and his tendencies when faced with a 4bet...if he is 3 betting 13%...but only continuing with JJ+ and AK to a 4bet, and never 4bet bluffing, then he will fold to a 4bet over 75% of the time, so you have a ridiculously profitable 4bet....so if this is true of this reg, then just 4bet bluff a shit ton, especially with blockers, and only have your value range as QQ+ and own him.

As for this spot..just call preflop, and don't be afraid that he can have AA, aka don't fold too much postflop.

Pre flop I like 4bet jamming 8's - JJ's against these types of players in CO vs BTN scenarios. I have AJs- AQs in this range as well. I get called by worse a lot and not too far behind an adjusting calling range. If i take ur line postflop I check jam this flop. As played i call river.

Yeah I agree 4-bet call is probably good here. If people do the math they'll we make more in dead money the times he folds than we lose when we get it in with healthy equity vs his range. Obviously the more he folds, the better, so if this hand is a nightmare to play in a 3-bet pot oop vs this guy then if 4-bet/calling is +EV, it's likely the best play.

Okay I'll do a little bit of math here to illustrate what I mean.

Let's say villain 3-bets a range of something like this: { TT+, 22, AQs+, A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, 97s, 86s+, 75s+, AQo+ } 11.5% of hands basically.

Let's say he jams 22 as a bluff and TT+ AQ+ for value and folds the rest to a 4-bet. (His 5 betting range is possibly wider than this btw due to his image and reg vs reg CO vs Bu spot.)

He's jamming with 68 combos out of a total of 150 (I think math may be slightly off, doing this quickly.)

So he jams 45% of the time and folds 55%.

When he jams we have 41% equity in a pot of 100 so get back $41 for an EV of -$7.50 from 4-bet/calling.

When he folds we win the total pot + his 3-bet so EV is +$7.25

So we lose 7.50 45 times which is 337.50. We win 7.25 55 times which is 398.75.

(398.75 - 337.50)/100 = .61

So EV of the play is +61 cents.

And that's assuming he has hardly any 5 bet bluffs and that he's only 3 betting 11.5% in this spot, this can easily swing things further in favour of 4-bet/call.

Against this opponent OOP I opt to call here. You can 4bet/(fold I think), I wouldnt but meh. Just do your best post flop.
The most important part is that you balance your range here by showing up with QQ+ so he can't just muller you post flop in position.
As played on the river looks like a call because: What of your raise/call preflop hands and check call flop hands will fold this turn? Looks like an easy value bet with a pair of 10s plus for him. It s close but I think hes only betting air or an A. Pretty sure he woul have bet 10 JJ+ on the value for turn so I would call. Outcome? :)

Even though 4bet/calling can be +EV against most villains, and +61 cents against described villain, it doesn't mean it's the correct play. I'd think that, as long as you don't play badly postflop - calling will be more profitable against someone who's 3betting such a wide range here, and who's not playing very spewy to 4bets.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Toadstool

Even though 4bet/calling can be +EV against most villains, and +61 cents against described villain, it doesn't mean it's the correct play. I'd think that, as long as you don't play badly postflop - calling will be more profitable against someone who's 3betting such a wide range here, and who's not playing very spewy to 4bets.

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Lol of course it being +61 cent alone obv doesn't render it the best play.

My thoughts are that playing this hand oop without initiative vs someone decent is going to be pretty damn difficult to show a profit, so I guess I disagree on that.

Just realised that sounded pretty patronising, sorry. If you think calling 99 here won't show a profit, and that it would be better to 4bet/call....do you have a flatting range in this spot? Also, at what point would you say pairs become a fold rather than a 4bet/call here?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Toadstool

Just realised that sounded pretty patronising, sorry. If you think calling 99 here won't show a profit, and that it would be better to 4bet/call....do you have a flatting range in this spot? Also, at what point would you say pairs become a fold rather than a 4bet/call here?

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Lol no sweat. I rarely flat in these spots, but thinking maybe Ishould be flatting more. Obv if i'm against someone who's just folding to loads of 4 bets and 3 betting very wide I'lflat stuff like AA, KK etc. I flat AQ, KQ, AJ here sometimes if I think my opponent's 3 betting super wide since I think these win more big pots when we dominate his hand and play better thana hand like 99 does. Still not thrilled in these spots though since I find 3 bet pots oop pretty tricky.

I'm not totally sure I can't show a profit flatting 99, but meh I feel like I need a bigger skill edge on my opponent and more reads than I have vs this guy. Would be interested to hear more oppinions on this though and whether the better players commonly flat here or not.

I think a decent adjustment to this type of player, assuming you not going to leave the table, is to temporally tighten your range and flat his 3b with JJ-AA,AQ+ and trap as he tries to win the pot (I prefer JJ+ as its easier to play OOP).

On the hand itself, I'm leaning towards 4bet/shoving or folding preflop depending on your specific reads on the villan. As played, I think hes made a really sick good river bet. I think its a fold because of all the Ax in his light 3b range.(good as a blocker) This player I am sure works off his image and as such, is expecting you not to give him credit and call this small river bet.

suited broadways make far better calling hands when out of position. 88+ is an easy 4b call.

if you think he isnt shoving any bad hands preflop then you need to 4bet him much more often for easy $$ and so that he either 3bets tighter or 5bets lighter.

nutsinho, is that because when you call you have potential equity and can bluff/shove it without necessarily being way ahead/way behind?