5NL- 67s vs agressive line

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

( this is FR table w/6 players dealt cards )

Button ($5)
SB ($7.27)
BB ($5)
UTG ($5.46)
MP ($2.50)
Hero (CO) ($8.67)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
UTG bets $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.15, 3 folds

UTG is 0\0 over 16 hands . This is very small sample but we can assume that he is at least a decent player and tight . I put him here on 88+ and AQ+ .

Flop: ($0.37) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

I think that he will cbet 100% of his opening range so I choose here to float and see what he do on turn .

Turn: ($0.77) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

Now I think that he have here TT,AA and AQ+ . I shoose to flat because if he have here AQ+ I will probably make more money by flatting and bet small on the river .

River: ($2.17) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero ???

I'm not sure what is the best play here . I feel that he won't do this play w/AQ+ but we still have not seen him play even 1 hand . Fold or shove?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ATM

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com


UTG is 0\0 over 16 hands . This is very small sample but we can assume that he is at least a decent player and tight . I put him here on 88+ and AQ+ .

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fold pre
thats the range you gave him, vs that range on that flop you have 17% equity up to river so there is no reason to float it, just fold flop.
as played:

call turn

call river

Personally I'd only be calling pre if it was multiway so as to improve my implied odds.

On flop, assuming the range you have assigned him is accurate, you are way behind. 0/0 over 16 hands isn't much of a sample but I think it is enough to indicate a reasonably tight player and I'd be giving him credit for Ax. I'd be folding.

As played I'd be raising turn as I think his line tends to indicate Ax and if you are right about AQ+ I don't see him folding AQ or AK to a raise here.

river I'd be shoving.

Preflop: fold
Flop: you are behind, by far, the entire range you gave him.
Turn: call
River: shove

He calls AK (12 hands), maybe aq. Folds any not fh pps, and calls all boats (9 hand combos) so may as well shove for value

Fold pre and flop
raise turn to about $1.90ish
shove river

pre is fine
flop is w/e i guess
call turn
just call river.

pre is fine for sure...the tighter the opponent raising the better, because we are more likely to realize our implied odds versus these players. If utg was a LAG and there was someone 3bet happy in the blinds or btn id be happy to fold.


i probably fold the flop, unless you think he's check folding jj-kk on the turn.

Fold preflop by default - would only call here against a weak player, fish or someone who cant fold UTG ranges post flop on yukky boards.

Fold flop - if you look at your HEM DB youll find calling here a big leak IMO.

Otherwise id call turn and raise river - although here id call here as id be suspeicous of teh river overbet

shoving over the overbet is a pretty big mistake.

As "philly and the phanatics" said , I called pre because his tight range and because I assume that I can win big pot against his range if I hit .

I called the flop because I'm in position and I assume that he will cbet w/all his pre flop hands . This flop is also good for cbeting vs 1 opponent so he can have here KK,QQ,JJ,99,88 easily

I just don't understand why almost everyone so hating the call pre? He is tight and he is UTG so his range is even tighter here . I have good implied odds hand and I probably will win big pot if I hit against his range . I didn't call the flop for just hitting the 6, I called to bet on the turn if he check and fold if he cbet again .

He had TT .

I just wonder , w/all this information that I gave you here, is it would be right to fold here on the river ever?

When I played this hand I was thinking about his ranges and that reasonable player like him won't overbet the river w/just AQ+ but also we have small sample and folding here is nitty .

I'm just not sure if w/this info I can assume that he have here TT or AA and fold .

don't fold but all you have is a bluff catcher

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ATM

I'm just not sure if w/this info I can assume that he have here TT or AA and fold .

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You can assume that...it surely looks like he might have it. But you really have no choice but to call, and see how dumb/smart he really is.

But mostly when i see this line in microstakes you villain is screaming: "omg i have almost uber nuts, and i have build sucha crappy small pot on flop and turn and i really wanna get paid big so I'm gonna just overbet river here and pray he calls because i probably wont get nuts again in next 1000000 hands."

if the consensus is that we are puke-calling the river or only have a bluff catcher then we shouldnt have got here in the first place with a weak hand afainst the range of hands villain is likely to turn up with i.e sets and TPTK like hands - so im struggling to see why we called flop - even call preflop

TP hands wont pay off trips too much and sets crush us

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

if the consensus is that we are puke-calling the river or only have a bluff catcher then we shouldnt have got here in the first place with a weak hand afainst the range of hands villain is likely to turn up with i.e sets and TPTK like hands - so im struggling to see why we called flop - even call preflop

TP hands wont pay off trips too much and sets crush us

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I called the flop because I'm in position and I assume that he will cbet w/all his pre flop hands . This flop is also good for cbeting vs 1 opponent so he can have here KK,QQ,JJ,99,88 easily , I didn't call the flop for just hitting the 6, I called to bet on the turn if he check and fold if he cbet again .

I just don't understand why almost everyone so hating the call pre? He is tight and he is UTG so his range is even tighter here . I have good implied odds hand and I probably will win big pot if I hit against his range .

all this of course my opinion and I would like to hear another ones on calling here pre and floating the flop .

Thanks for the comments guys :rolleyes:

This will be the first time I’ve tried to do this much math in an analysis so I may leave things out, please consider with caution, and if you can see and point out errors much appreciated as this is the first time i've tried to calculate all this.. apologies for the messiness. I realise this will likely be difficult to understand due to how untidy it is, I unfortunately dont really know how to set it out clearly on account of me lacking any math education beyond the middle of highschool other than my own common sense.

Pot 57c, facing 20c bet.
Villains range is 88+, AQ+

Plan of action vs range and maths is as follows

Combinatrics
villain holds –
12 combos of 88/99
18 combos JJ-KK
24 combos AQ+
6 combos TT/AA

On the turn villain check folds 88/99, check calls JJ-KK, bets AQ+, TT/AA.

On the turn hero calls a 70c bet if improved to two pair+, folds to any bet unimproved, and bets half of times when checked to, checks behind the remainder, checks down the river unimproved vs turn steals that villain calls.

Hero has 5 outs to 2pair/trips, chance to hit turn is ~10%

Following is the possible out comes-

45% of the time villain will bet and hero will not have improved, hero will fold. The EV for this is..

-0.20 x 0.45 = -0.09

22.5% of the time hero will be checked to and bet unimproved, if called he will fold to a river bet, or check behind. The EV for this is..

(+0.57 x 0.1125)+(-0.9 x 0.1125) = -0.036

5% of the time hero will improve and bet after villain checks. The villain will call and be behind 60% of times he checks, and check/fold the river. He will fold the other combos his turn check range (88/99) - EV as follows..

(0.05 x 0.6 x (0.57+ 0.7))+(0.05 x 0.4 x (0.57)) = +0.049

5% of the time hero will improve and call turn and river bets of 70c, then $1.5. in these hands hero will be ahead of villains AQ+ 80% of the time, and behind TT/AA 20%. EV as follows

0.05 x 0.8 x (.57+.7+1.5) = +0.11

0.05 x 0.2 x (.2+.7+1.5) = -0.024

22.5% of the time hero will check behind on the turn and river, 80% of these times he will lose, 20% he will improve and win, villain will fold to river bets in this situation. EV as follows

(.225 x 0.8 x-0.2)+(.225 x 0.2 x .57) = -0.01

Overall EV of flop call is +0.019

Don’t think you’d be able to arrive at that at the table though, and it seems barely worth it, if you make even the tiniest error your going to be –ev.

it's only ok to float flop if villain doesnt 2nd barrels with underpairs / if he always folds undepairs to your turn bet / if he always stacks off w/ TP,TPTK when you hit, if he doesnt add up w/ these 3 requirements then your flop floating is -EV.

calling pre is not that bad, but you need some postflop skills which you proved here you dont by calling flop. i mean no offence.

i like calling pre here, but i will continue on a flop w/ at least OESD / FD / GTSD+FD / OESD+FD / 2 pairs, any of these will give much more equity then the one you have in this spot.

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Originally Posted by bikes

shoving over the overbet is a pretty big mistake.

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Can you explain why you consider it a big mistake?

I see AA, TT and 88 have us beat but I can't think of any other combinations villain is likely to have that beat us and I would even discount 88 as being hugely unlikely considering how the hand was played. I see villain calling a shove with AK-AT. I don't know enough of the math to work out if a shove is +EV though so if that is your reasoning let me know and I'll try to do it all myself for the practice. If your reasoning is something else then I'd love to hear it.

he overbet the pot obviously. the don't call if you dont shove this river is stupid when the villian overbets the pot the way he did

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Originally Posted by bikes

he overbet the pot obviously. the don't call if you dont shove this river is stupid when the villian overbets the pot the way he did

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So remove the overbet, and make it say $1.80 instead, does this change your reaction?

yes ship it in over $1.80

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PKKFW

Can you explain why you consider it a big mistake?

I see AA, TT and 88 have us beat but I can't think of any other combinations villain is likely to have that beat us and I would even discount 88 as being hugely unlikely considering how the hand was played. I see villain calling a shove with AK-AT. I don't know enough of the math to work out if a shove is +EV though so if that is your reasoning let me know and I'll try to do it all myself for the practice. If your reasoning is something else then I'd love to hear it.

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I would say that the overbet severely narrows the range to nut hands.. something 90% of the time this is AA/TT, if the other hands had made this over bet they would likely call the shove, but how often does one pair do this on the river? which only leaves total spaz bluffs, and they'd be stupid to call the shove, but they also exist maybe 0.5% of the time here. This ofcourse presents a fairly reasonable arguement for folding the river.. but that has to be weighed against how incredibly horrible it is to call with a weak hand, improve then fold. so calling is the right move, not shoving.

as far as i see it...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PKKFW

Can you explain why you consider it a big mistake?

I see AA, TT and 88 have us beat but I can't think of any other combinations villain is likely to have that beat us and I would even discount 88 as being hugely unlikely considering how the hand was played. I see villain calling a shove with AK-AT. I don't know enough of the math to work out if a shove is +EV though so if that is your reasoning let me know and I'll try to do it all myself for the practice. If your reasoning is something else then I'd love to hear it.

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If we shove the river look at the hands that will call that shove (taking into consideration the hand ranges villain is likely to have ie he won't have T6s from UTG)

Then ask yourself how many hands in that range we beat - I'd be surprised if you can find any. For that reason alone shoving is bad, for a shove to be profitable villain has to fold some or call a lot with worse hands and here there isn't a lot worse he will call with

Doesn't it come down to whether or not he calls with AK?

AK has 12 combs
Fh are 9 combs
Worse folds.

I'm assuming bikes discounts AK due to the large bet.

if he can has AT then thats all we need, but i dont think a nit is opening AT here nor do i think they are overbetting the river with AK

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Originally Posted by ATM

I just don't understand why almost everyone so hating the call pre? He is tight and he is UTG so his range is even tighter here . I have good implied odds hand and I probably will win big pot if I hit against his range . I didn't call the flop for just hitting the 6, I called to bet on the turn if he check and fold if he cbet again .

He had TT .

I just wonder , w/all this information that I gave you here, is it would be right to fold here on the river ever?

When I played this hand I was thinking about his ranges and that reasonable player like him won't overbet the river w/just AQ+ but also we have small sample and folding here is nitty .

I'm just not sure if w/this info I can assume that he have here TT or AA and fold .

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If he is tight and smart then probably you wont win a big pot even if you hit. You might win something smallish, medium maybe, any observant tag will switch to pot control if he suspects his hand is crushed. And all this guy did was: bet, BET, BET EVEN MOAR!

And why is your preflop move bad...well, you are trying to "maybe" turn-backstab a unknown player that is raising from UTG. See mistake there?
So now when you went to showdown with this guy, assuming he is observant, he made a nice big color coded tag all over your player name saying something like: "suited connected floating fish." So ye, now he's gonna make you pay all your floats, and will also be super careful on any straighty-flushy boards.

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Originally Posted by bikes

he overbet the pot obviously. the don't call if you dont shove this river is stupid when the villian overbets the pot the way he did

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by scott_owen

I would say that the overbet severely narrows the range to nut hands.. something 90% of the time this is AA/TT, if the other hands had made this over bet they would likely call the shove, but how often does one pair do this on the river? which only leaves total spaz bluffs, and they'd be stupid to call the shove, but they also exist maybe 0.5% of the time here. This ofcourse presents a fairly reasonable arguement for folding the river.. but that has to be weighed against how incredibly horrible it is to call with a weak hand, improve then fold. so calling is the right move, not shoving.

as far as i see it...

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Ok. I hadn't really thought of that.

I guess I have seen far too many people overbet the pot as to me that almost always signifies one of two things. A: I'm bluffing and hope you don't call. B: I have top pair and that always wins doesn't it? The rest of the time it's with the nuts or close to it of course. Obviously I haven't played anywhere near as much poker as you guys though so I wouldn't be surprised if my reading is wrong.

From what you guys are saying I would think the correct play here would be to fold the river rather than call.(well correct for the river anyway as I still think folding pre or flop is best)

@PKKFW

on the river, if you were villain in this situation you can fairly safely assume that you won't get called by the weak one pair hands, so your looking at the hero's calling range being AK, 6x. You could make a small value bet, say 1$ to maximise calls, or you can bet larger. If you make this 3$ overbet and get called once in 3 times, that will be the same as having 1$ called 100% of the time. You dont need to consider the actions of draws that missed because they fold to any bet. You want to maximise value from the hands that will call.

From the hero's perspective, when facing bets on the river and not holding the nuts.. always consider the range of hands villain has and whether there are hands worse than yours that will call a raise.

raising into a range of hands that consists of winners that always call and losers that never call is complete spew. the raise achieves absolutely nothing and is very -ev. This concept becomes more important the higher up you move. You can be blissfully unaware of its importance at stakes like 2 and 5nl because so many players pay off with those losing hands, which ofcourse makes raising +ev.

edit: you may have heard/read this before but i'll repeat it now..

"the purpose of betting/raising is to have better hands fold and/or worse hands call."

You'll do well if you always consider whether or not your bets achieve this as best they can in any given situation.

^^

I understand that. I guess I just figure at 5nl the villains range is alot wider than AA and TT here. I think it is more like AA, TT, AK-AT and I think he would call with any of those. Frankly with no raise on from hero on the turn I wouldn't be surprised to see JJ-KK here as well with the "I don't believe you have an ace so I'll keep betting" philosophy in play but I wouldn't count that in any EV calculations. AA and TT beat us and AK-AT we beat. Probably still a -EV situation to shove I suppose.

Having said that I can see what you guys are saying and I'm going to look back over my HH's to see just how much money I've likely lost in spots like this.

^
I hardly disagree with you theory, its situation dependent. If your read says villain calls with worse hands a high enough % of the time then raise.