50NL 340bb deep FH facing reg turn c/rai on straightflush board

Villain is 26/21 3b:13 over ~300
Most of our stacks came from a huge spewing (98/49) whale that used to be in the CO seat so there was a dynamic where I was isoing a ton and he 3b me a ton, therefore the 3b stat might not be accurate. Decided to stay at the table because UTG joined and was a 29/6 fish. Nothing really relevant that is notable since we haven't really gotten to showdown against each other nor played any big pots against each other.

We only lose to 4 combos, but he's shipping ~220bb more and it's really hard to imagine that he would do this with worse.

He's also seen me be a pretty big station against the whale (http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerforum/beginners-circle/no-money-microstakes-everybodys-solid-184961-7.html#post2046094 - hand was ~100 hands ago but there were other smaller calldowns w/ Ahigh/Khigh against the whale in between that hand and this one)

I timed out on the hand remembering some comments in bikes' thread but it's a fold anyways? w/ my image this should be a much easier fold than in bikes' spot right? Haven't been in a spot like this myself so would like a check.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($61.49)
BB ($171.80)
UTG ($70.67)
CO ($50)
Hero ($243.54)

Dealt to Hero J:spade: T:spade:

fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.5, fold, BB raises to $5.00, Hero calls $3.50

FLOP ($10.25) T:heart: J:diamond: 9:diamond:

BB bets $6.25, Hero raises to $21, BB calls 14.75

TURN ($52.25) T:heart: J:diamond: 9:diamond: T:diamond:

BB checks, Hero bets $31.50, BB raises to $145.80 (AI), Hero wtf

are you saying that your image is kind of stationy and that sways the argument toward folding? i don't think i can fold here. you need ~33%. if you include 8d7d in the combos that beat you, you would surely have to include T9s for the smaller full house?

if you think this is his range is exclusively

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.568% 25.57% 00.00% 45 0.00 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 74.432% 74.43% 00.00% 131 0.00 { JJ, KdQd, T9s, 8d7d }

i guess you're folding. however if you think he has just one more combo in his range, we have enough equity to call. i imagine he could be doing this with one of AdQd, AdKd, TxAd, TxKd, TxQd,Tx8d, given how loose and aggro the dynamic has been.

edit: although i guess T8o is an unlikely candidate for preflop 3bet. ignore what i said, someone who can play poker will tell you what they think is best.

Another spot where I don't see myself folding ever but I only play at 10nl.

Call.

villain likely sees you as aggressive so there's no way he would think you'd only bet FHs on this turn card.

Most of the hands that have us beat would be very likely to either A. 3b flop or B. not try to push you off the hand when they have the nizzles on the turn. Can't see folding. I mean, if he has 99/T9 he has to think turn is his gin card.

Looks like a pretty bad flop raise.

This hand is pretty different than bikes hand. I think this clear call

- also don't like flop raise

bikes is good at making people timeout fold the nuts.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by d0zer

bikes is good at making people timeout fold the nuts.

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thats what you get for slowrolling me imo.


@OP I'm pretty sure I'd call. We are like a 54% favorite against KdQd,8d7d, JJ,99 and T9. I would discount KdQd a bit because I think most people would 3b the flop and try to get it in freerolling.

Ack, I forgot completely about 99 and didn't add it to my stove. I thought it was closer than it actually was. Haven't really played this deep before so I was kind of a deer in headlights. Oh well, at least I learn something.

Is flop raise that bad? Would I not be able to get value?

snap calling this

given that the majority of hands that could possibly beat us, will likely c/c on the turn as opposed to c/bomb on us, this is the easiest snap call ever.

snap snap snap

Yea don't fold.