on of the weirdest play in my life

BTN is probably some random shortstacker (never saw him before) - 15/11/2/7.7 (VPIP/PFR/AF/3bet) after 50 hands

SB is some random reg - 20/15/2.8/2.5 after 385 hands
- I have no reads on him



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($76.58)
Button ($18)
UTG ($52.29)
Hero (MP) ($58)
SB ($53.11)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, Button raises $4, SB calls $3.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($12.50) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($12.50) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (3 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3, 1 fold

River: ($18.50) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets $11, Hero calls $11

- what do you think about this??

speechless

Bet flop, bet turn, bet river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bikes

speechless

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Is there some thought process behind this??

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Andypandy

Bet flop, bet turn, bet river.

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I didn't lead, because I wanted to give a chance to BTN to bluff

umm okay....flop and turn aside for now...why the hell wouldn't you raise river?

i am so confused. you don't think he calls a raise on the river with anything but KK? he probably doesn't even have KK in his range. so so confused.

if you think he has KK in his range he should have AA shove.

if you think he wont call with worse w.e shove anyway he might surprise you.

whaaat?

Flop: Bet 7.50
Turn: Bet 14
River: Shove

I know this hand looks really absurd, but really happened. I changed absolutely nothing and posted every info I had at the time. I just want to see if anyone would play it same

- of course I will post my thought process, but I would like to hear some other responses before

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond

I didn't lead, because I wanted to give a chance to BTN to bluff

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I would expect BTN to bluff here an absurdly small % of the time.

You have a set in a 3-bet pot vs. a random who flatted in the SB, don't understand how there should be any thought process other than, "what's the best way to get stacks in?"

How often do you play this passively?

Probably should have went for value bets on at least the turn and river.

Given you didn't have initiative, I can see checking the flop. I wouldn't be able to resist myself in flatting that weak ass turn bet that's for sure. I'd make it $12. As played, why aren't you raising the river?

Are you putting him on exactly and only KK? KK might bet this weakly on the turn but I doubt it chooses that sizing on the river.

I can see instances where the flop and turn would play out as they did. But can't imagine not raising this river.

Quote:

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I just want to see if anyone would play it same

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yeah, std line:

Jennifer Tilly: "I thought you had pocket kings" - Poker After Dark - S01 - YouTube

YES!

can't stop laughing..

about that bet/bet/bet line:
I think if SB has a hand to call 3 streets, we will get stacks in easily. And especially, when if we bet 12 on turn, we have pot bet on river (and he will lead turn w/ good hand anyway). So if BTN will bluff in non zero % of time time, I think check is fine.


My thought process:
preflop:
I remember, that I was completely shocked, when SB cold call BTN 3bet. (W/o me in the pot) BTN will have little more than 1PSB, so what is his postflop plan?? This is so weird and no one noticed this (and this is first of 2 points, which saved me stack).

flop:
I was still confused about SB play and here I realized, that SB is basically slowplaying monster, to get me in. So at this moment I put him on AA and KK only (I think there is big chance he will not slowplay QQ). I check (it was little bit autopilot, because I was still confused, but I have no problem w/ it)

turn:
SB underbets (this is the second point). Why he would ever do this w/ AA?? He is not blocking any K, which is his action card, so it doesn't make sense. If he would bet 9$ I'm of course shipping river.

river:
At first I was still thinking about shipping, but because he has 35$=70bb behind, I think there is only small chance he would call (and I need him to call w/ more than 50% of aces) and because AA was discounted by turn action, I decided not to. Based on my logic I should fold, but if I was wrong, it will be such a huge mistake. So I just called and he had KK


- just basically his preflop and turn action told me "don't shove river"

Hearing all that I take my hat off to you for not losing your stack to set over set!

I have no problem admitting I would have lost it all for sure.

id just bet around $4 on flop

Hey nice thought process analyzing if you posted that with the original post most people wouldn't be laughing, but your reasoning seems solid.

I still don't see why he can't size the turn this way with AA and AK. I mean he's some random tard reg, he can easily be like omg must get value with those hands too no? I mean given how vastly those combos outweigh the 3 of KK, we need to be pretty damn sure not to raise this turn/river as played no?

I mean if he's solidish and you've seen him 4 bet/felt AK preflop before and be aggro preflop in general then I get your logic, but I'm not sure if your read was so good that you made this play confidently, or if you just made this play then saw KK and created a memory where your read was perfect due to the results.

Its awesome squeeze spot for so many reason from SB perspective and he is OOP, so I think he is calling w/ AK close to never (and I already talked about AA). As I said I have no reads on him - it was just logic. And I don't think I'm results oriented and I never said that I'm confident in this play - I just wanted to hear FTR opinions about this hand, thats all.

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

id just bet around $4 on flop

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yeah ok you convinced me - this seems better than check. ty

You are aware of this right, that AA (6) and AK (12) are potentially calling vs his KK (3), so you really only need him to call with AA/AK roughly 17% of the time to break even. If he calls more than 17% of the time with those hands you are PRINTING money.

Also if he is never calling with those hands you should be jamming this river with a very high frequency with any hand you somehow get into this spot with (should be few, JXs?) as 18 combos of AA/AK dwarf the 6 combos of KK/JJ.

Also, button is stabbing here with air next to 0% which means if hes betting you are likely going to stack him. If you bet you will still likely stack him, and you don't miss a street of value. The one downside is your perceived range will never have air in it, only semi-bluffs and value. That is still fine though as it is similar to buttons betting range here in the eyes of SB.

FWIW I think your turn call is okay.

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Originally Posted by reDZill4

You are aware of this right, that AA (6) and AK (12) are potentially calling vs his KK (3), so you really only need him to call with AA/AK roughly 17% of the time to break even. If he calls more than 17% of the time with those hands you are PRINTING money.

Also if he is never calling with those hands you should be jamming this river with a very high frequency with any hand you somehow get into this spot with (should be few, JXs?) as 18 combos of AA/AK dwarf the 6 combos of KK/JJ.

Also, button is stabbing here with air next to 0% which means if hes betting you are likely going to stack him. If you bet you will still likely stack him, and you don't miss a street of value. The one downside is your perceived range will never have air in it, only semi-bluffs and value. That is still fine though as it is similar to buttons betting range here in the eyes of SB.

FWIW I think your turn call is okay.

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I still think AK is discounted based on preflop, because of stacksizes, position, he will miss a lot and implied odds vs me (not much sure about this latest point - would be happy, if you correct this, if you disagree). But even if he can have it, its still problem on the turn. "Standard" play is bet something like 9-10 or so w/ AK, AA and he is underbetting. So he must have some good reason, why he didn't choose "standard" play and I don't see that reason - you do??

On the river - in my eyes your 2nd paragraph>your 1st paragraph. And this is beacuse I probably misplayed flop (see Micro2Macro post). (When I said my flop check was little bit autopilot = I was checking w/ intention not to build a pot, until I will have idea about what is going on. We weren't deep, so I could stack off them on later streets. I realized that SB is slowplaying probably in same second, when BTN was checking back flop). And then because SB lead only 1/4p, we have so much money behind, that I think there is only small chance (less than 17%) he will call my shove w/ just 1 pair (+ I still think these worse hands are discounted). If I lead flop, then it changes absolutely everything and its super happy stack off

how, in this world where pairs are turned in to bluffs, will he not be happy to call it off with AK and AA? also how does removing the air from your range by leading the flop make him happier to stack off?? i don't see how leading this flop changes anything about the current spot we are in OTR. this entire thread just tilts me.

just writing this tilts me i'm done with this thread

well if you're read is so good on his turn sizing, you really fucked this up by not folding the turn.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond

SB is some random reg - 20/15/2.8/2.5 after 385 hands
- I have no reads on him

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by reDZill4

well if you're read is so good on his turn sizing, you really fucked this up by not folding the turn.

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This is an excellent point. If you knew, by the river at the latest, that villian HAD to have KK then you should have folded. However, I think you called because you knew it was a mistake to put your opponent on just one hand, which then means you need to go through the analysis of determining what other hands he could have and how your hand fit against the entire range.

I agree with others that when you get to this point you will find that a bet, bet, shove line is the most +EV over a long period of time.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond

On the river - in my eyes your 2nd paragraph>your 1st paragraph. And this is beacuse I probably misplayed flop (see Micro2Macro post). (When I said my flop check was little bit autopilot = I was checking w/ intention not to build a pot, until I will have idea about what is going on. We weren't deep, so I could stack off them on later streets. I realized that SB is slowplaying probably in same second, when BTN was checking back flop). And then because SB lead only 1/4p, we have so much money behind, that I think there is only small chance (less than 17%) he will call my shove w/ just 1 pair (+ I still think these worse hands are discounted). If I lead flop, then it changes absolutely everything and its super happy stack off

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The only part about this makes sense is the discounting AK part, you should still note that AA(6) is more than KK(3). So he is still folding 66.66% of the time. You are risking $35 to win $29.50 with 0% equity when called. So you need him to be folding 65%. Meaning you should still jam your entire range except for hands better than AA but worse than KKK. However you should still shove those but for other reasons unrelated to what we are talking about in this paragraph.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond

I still think AK is discounted based on preflop, because of stacksizes, position, he will miss a lot and implied odds vs me (not much sure about this latest point - would be happy, if you correct this, if you disagree). But even if he can have it, its still problem on the turn. "Standard" play is bet something like 9-10 or so w/ AK, AA and he is underbetting. So he must have some good reason, why he didn't choose "standard" play and I don't see that reason - you do??

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Sure he shoves AK.
-So you are effectively set mining because he only has QQ+, but are unwilling to play your hand aggressively unless you have the nuts? Any board with an over card to your JJ (57%) you are going to play passively as you did in this hand even with a set.

Sure it is 'standard' to bet 9ish on the turn. But, yes I do see the reason for an under bet.
-It is completely reasonable to be b/f vs you and b/c vs the button (QQ, AA)
-I'll refer you to my earlier post where you can't shove JJJ on this river for value then you should be jamming your entire range.

The question you need to ask yourself is this.
-is the amount of money you make when you get J2237 greater than the amount of money you lose on 22458?
-Are you just folding to any bet made by the SB on 22458?
-How much do you think you win/lose on J223(K/Q/A)?
-What about JJ2(K/Q/A)3?
-What about JJ2KQ?

Based on your answers to these questions how do you think you should play JJ here on all streets? Based on what I think your answers would be I'm assuming you are going to be losing money set mining in this scenario especially if you play like a bitch. So you should start folding pre in this spot unless you plan on changing your strategy. Also I'm assuming in this spot your calling range isn't NEARLY as wide as it should be. I'm guessing you only call with TT-JJ. How close am I? You should be calling with any two.

CHEERS.

You really think he has KK specifically that often? You don't lose to anything else. What gives you the idea he would play KK in this manner? Even if I felt he could have KK like 60 or 70% of the time I'd still get the money in, but I see no reason to assume he has it.