TPTK on river gets raised by fish 50NL

Villain is a 29/12/2.0 fish over 160 hands.
Flop: raise 0%, fold to cb 75% (12 times)
Turn: fold to cb 0% (2 times)

I almost always fold here but given his a fish and the way the board played out...im not so sure.

I've seen him be aggressive as the PFR postflop with A6s on ace high flop and being called and losing against AJ. First time seeing him raise a bet postflop.

Can't really see a set/straight playing this way but then again his a fish and just might. Not sure if he would raise a K high FD here.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) -

BB ($52.10)
UTG ($52.50)
Hero (UTG+1) ($112.95)
MP1 ($50)
MP2 ($48.75)
CO ($51.85)
Button ($68.90)
SB ($20)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/ad.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/kd.gif
1 fold, Hero bets $2, 3 folds, Button calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/7d.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/qs.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/4s.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button calls $3

Turn: ($10.75) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/5d.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, Button calls $6.50

River: ($23.75) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/kh.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $13, Button raises to $31

doesn't he have KsQs here almost always?

i'm folding. in my experience it is incredibly rare for anyone, particularly fish, to bluff-raise the river at 50nl and lower. and he doesn't raise worse for value.

Not calling river against someone this passive.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rpm

i'm folding. in my experience it is incredibly rare for anyone, particularly fish, to bluff-raise the river at 50nl and lower. and he doesn't raise worse for value.

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Pretty much my exact line of thought. Thought maybe small chance he would raise KJs here or something? Then thought I'm just leveling myself.

On the river, am I better off C/C a bet here? Gives a chance for all his missed draw hands to bluff and worse value hands to check back. When I rethink about my river bet, I don't really see that many hands that would call there...K high FD...maybee a stubborn Q with a good kicker. Maybe C/C wouldve been better.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

doesn't he have KsQs here almost always?

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I'd say he can't have the Qs ever lol ;)

looks a lot like 2 pr

I see this being 2pair, set and straights too often for us to be able to call the small amount of times it's a bluff. (card removal doesn't help here either).

Vbetting the river is fine because he stubborn calls Qx a ton when all the draws miss. I can't say for certain (but it's my very strong guess) that it's better than c/bluff catching, but it's definitely +eV.