77 BU vs BB - to barrel river or not to barrel river

Villian is 21/17/7.5 over 1.2k and we perceive each other as solid thinking players.

Hero is 27/19/5.7, image is pretty clean other than I misread my hand a few orbits ago and got snapped off by a fishes raggy ace on river(thought i flopped broadway)

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($47.37)
MP ($9.86)
CO ($20)
Button ($54.79)
SB ($32.89)
Hero (BB) ($19.14)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
3 folds, Button bets $0.54, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.34

Flop: ($1.18) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.99, Hero raises to $3.15, Button calls $2.16

Turn: ($7.48) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $4.35, Button calls $4.35

River: ($16.18) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero ???

Total pot: $38.38

I feel like c/r is a better option than c/c -> donk turn or c/decide because it allows me to represent more hands on turn and river, i feel like the turn is a perfect example of this.

turn sizing seems bad now that i look back, because when he calls flop im fairly certain he has a set or some combo draw, and pricing him to draw to board pair is not what i would do with a value hand.

so question-> does villian fold a set on riv if we jam, i know hes never folding a flush

The flop check raise is going to cause your opponent to only tend to continue with his strongest hands and draws and against that range your Sevens are pretty bad. It's also going to bloat up the pot and make it even harder to win the hand via a showdown.

I don't hate a turn check/fold if despite all that you feel a flop check/raise would be a good mix-up or have more value than check/call.

As played, I'd go ahead and just shove the river. Your turn bet sets it up perfectly.

a set would 3bet the flop 90%.
he almost pot the flop, why raise, after his bet is certain he aint folding.
turn is a c/f, a big part of his range is made up of flushes that hit the turn.
c/f river, he is not folding, what do you expect him to fold from his range that got there,when you bet river?

@Rav I would think if he were in bet/fold mode he would be betting larger on this type of board to get the most from draws that he has equity against, for example I would expect 88-AA to bet pretty big on the flop and not continue that often facing that action at these stakes

my value range here would be 78, 44, 55, 66, 74dd 89dd

i dont think i would be check raising the overs+FD combos on this type of board that often simply so i dont valuetown myself when an offsuit king rolls off, especially against regs who love bluffing overcards.

its hard to say that he would think that way about how many flushes im going to have on the turn, but if that were the case im certainly representing a thinner value range than i thought when i was in the hand

Quote:

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Originally Posted by deadstraddl3

@Rav I would think if he were in bet/fold mode he would be betting larger on this type of board to get the most from draws that he has equity against, for example I would expect 88-AA to bet pretty big on the flop and not continue that often facing that action at these stakes

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how much more can he bet w/ 88-AA like you say? he bet 0.99 in 1.18, that seems pretty big to me.
if you expect 88-AA to b/f flop more often then b/c then why donk turn ? if he folds overpair like you expect then b/c range is left w/ FD and some 7x, donking turn in that range is bad in my opinion cause we're often behind w/ no FE .

your repping , like you said a thin range and also like you said he knows you and is aware you dont c/r over+FD that often and has a good ideea about your flop value c/r range so when he calls flop he thinks he has good equity v your range and will get paid when he hits ( you wrote : "we perceive each other as solid thinking players.")

a diamond in my opinion is the worst bluffing card v him given the reads you have on each other and the way flop was played.

a solid player knows his solid opponent bluffing range in a spot is wide enough for his opponent to make a +EV bet but tight enough to make him -EV when calling. so i doubt betting turn is +EV if the reads you have are accurate.

I don't like the flop c/r, I just don't feel like we get any value from worse nor is anything better folding very often.
I c/c flop.
Turn, this is an interesting card. I feel like I can c/r bluff this card since villain has 88-KK in his range, and when we're called we still have decent equity. But that assumes I didn't c/r the flop.
As played, I hate the turn because we've bloated the pot and now we're oop with a draw and shit pair facing someone who likes his hand enough to call a flop c/r. Guess I'm c/f turn unless he bets half the pot or less. That's why I don't c/r this flop, because I have no plan when I'm called other than to shut down.

Pre flop, I think I prefer to 3bet this.