Turning queens into a bluff

CO (€19.69)
Button (€32.52)
SB (€7.86)
BB (€10.24)
UTG (€22.02)
Hero (MP) (€26.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
1 fold, Hero bets €0.75, 1 fold, Button raises to €2.25, 2 folds, Hero calls €1.50

Flop: (€4.85) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets €2.50, Hero calls €2.50

Turn: (€9.85) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets €4.70, Hero raises to €12.25

What do you think of this line, and the sizing?

no

If you want to take a stab at the pot I would check raise the flop and be done with the hand after. He will fold all his air and you know your crushed if he doesn't.

This looks like what I do after I've had a couple of disciplined, winning days, except that you didn't shove the flop. wtf?

Something about hookers and orgasms comes to mind...

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ms-174048.html

I'd say reads are rather critical if you want good advice here.

Having said that, it's gonna take a solid read for me to not c/f this flop.

I've just been discussing this hand with Bikes, and I think the raise was a mistake, but I don't know if I fully get why this isn't a good spot to bluff so I'll add a bit more to the thread, see if we can get some discussion going on and teach me a thing or two.

First I'll add a couple of things that I forgot to add to the initial post which are kind of critical in why I tried this:

- I told Bikes I remembered villain as nitty, I was wrong, he was like 24/21, but what I did have going for me (and probably why I remembered him as kind of nitty) was his tight postflop stats - he had folded to flop cbets 66% and folded the turn 100%, albeit over a sample of only 120 or so hands. He also cbet quite a lot, like 65% on the flop and barrelled the turn a fair bit, like 50%. He had 3bet 9% or so.

The other thing I felt I had going for me was I was pretty new at the table and he hasn't seen much of me so can't know whether I'd play a flush draw passively then raise the turn once I hit. If I thought he was an observant player and knew that I'd have raised the flop with a flush draw, then I'd have either given up, or had I decided to make a move I'd have raised the flop then shoved any spade turn, but I thought I could pull off a lower risk move here.

I think he can fold plenty of his Ax value range without a big spade here - couldn't you against an unknown?

Other stuff than premium aces I think he can also fold are (unlikely) AQ, AJ, AT, non-spade AXs, KK.

In short, I think he's folding _a lot_ - perhaps I'm projecting my own play onto him, but if I didn't have a big spade in my hand here against an unknown I'm folding a ton, probably folding even AK a lot, and certainly folding weaker aces and KK basically always. If villain is tricky that might not be the case, but dealing with an unknown, I think we can expect a ton of folding here.

Ref: raising the flop, surely we often get called by a strong ace because it can be a flush draw, then we have a bloated turn pot which we pretty much have to shove possibly into someone who either isn't folding as they have a ton of money already in the pot, or who isn't folding because they have a flush draw or made flush themselves.

I don't think c/f the flop against someone cbetting a ton is so great, surely we have to at least peel a cheap street and see if he continues on the turn, and on this board we have plenty of opportunities to take it away.

Calling the flop to re-evaluate the turn seems good to me, we have a ton of bluff outs and when one of them comes a turn bluff seems cheap enough to give it a shot, and it only has to work 46% of the time with my sizing to show a profit.

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Originally Posted by Wikkiwikki

If you want to take a stab at the pot I would check raise the flop and be done with the hand after. He will fold all his air and you know your crushed if he doesn't.

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I'm not really trying to find out if I'm crushed right now at the flop though, I'm trying to fold out stuff that does crush me but can fold a spade turn.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

This looks like what I do after I've had a couple of disciplined, winning days, except that you didn't shove the flop. wtf?

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Well I think shoving the flop is risking a ton to win a little, it has to work so often that it just wont show a profit, wheras if we bluff a spade turn we can risk less to win a bigger pot and I think it works more often since our "flush" is now made, wheras on the flop a strong ace can call a raise then continue on non-spade turns. I guess if we did raise the flop, it's probably best to shove most turns anyway and try to rep a set, but I don't think I'd try that since we're repping such a narrow range then, wheras we can have so many more combos of spade draws. I specifically had in mind here that villain can't know I wouldn't play a flush draw passively then raise the turn when I hit.

On a non-spade turn here, I'd just c/f.

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Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

I don't know if I fully get why this isn't a good spot to bluff

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Me neither - will be interesting to find out why not.

I think you're sizing may be a bit too small on the turn however to price out As.

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Me neither - will be interesting to find out why not.

I think you're sizing may be a bit too small on the turn however to price out As.

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Hmm, although the view seems to be that raising is a mistake, if we are going to raise I don't think it needs to be very big, because if it gets called a river shove is threatened, so if he calls with an ace, he's not really commiting to calling $12.25, but rather his/our whole stack.

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Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

I'm not really trying to find out if I'm crushed right now at the flop though, I'm trying to fold out stuff that does crush me but can fold a spade turn.

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So your letting him take you to value town on the flop on the off chance you get to bluff a spade on the turn??

and that only happens like 1 out of 5 times...

why not then float the turn on all non spade cards on the off chance the spade hits the river too and bluff then???

Chasing scare cards for bluff opportunities is a really bad idea.

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Originally Posted by bikes

no

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QFT
i mean, bikes and i may not see eye-to-eye on everything, but in this case i couldn't have put it better myself.

So seriously, and I'm not being flippant here, I'm genuinely curious - most of you are just check-folding a hand as strong as QQ here? Or are you raising the flop and folding to action? If you raise the flop, he calls and a spade comes on the turn, are you shoving?

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Originally Posted by Wikkiwikki

So your letting him take you to value town on the flop on the off chance you get to bluff a spade on the turn??

and that only happens like 1 out of 5 times...

why not then float the turn on all non spade cards on the off chance the spade hits the river too and bluff then???

Chasing scare cards for bluff opportunities is a really bad idea.

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Point taken, but since there's a fair chance he doesn't actually have an ace, perhaps he's not taking me to value town in the first place? I'm not just calling the flop for a bluff out, I'm also calling because he cbets a ton and may shut down on the turn and we can get to showdown or bluffcatch the river.

I'd say this is a bad bluffing spot because villain has lots of Kx Ax hands with a spade in, most of his range is ahead and isn't folding.

So yeah, I can happily c/f this flop and forget this hand ever happened.

Ong - thanks for the reply. Clearly I have a lot to learn here, because I still just don't get it - when I think of the range that I would 3bet with, cbet this flop then barrel this turn with, I can't agree that "most of it" has a big spade in. Perhaps I barrel too much here, but I'd basically cbet this flop like always in a 3bet pot whether I held AA or 89dd, and I'd barrel this turn with my whole bluffing range against anyone who I thought could fold anything. I'd also bet-fold this turn with my whole non-spade value range.

Meh, I must be a maniac here.

Villains range here is just too damn strong for you to try anything tricky with no equity. A better spot to run something like this would be button vs blinds in 3bet pots, however, keep in mind that you typically only represent AJ and a flush here, many opponents might just say 'well fuck it he could just raise those hands on the flop so I'm going to continue with my AK/AQ etc' (despite the fact that when you peel the flop a hand like this is probably the worst of all in your range other than like 9c8c, but no one who plays below 10/20 can even hand read like that so L O fucking L.

The last thing you should ever assume in poker is that some person you have limited reads on is capable of making big folds, especially once they have 2barreled in a 3bet pot. This is probably the one spot where I spewed a fuck ton back when I played ssnl and after thousands of dollars lost and a few smashed mice it finally sunk in.

And ongbonga hit it right on with his post regarding this specific hand.

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

The last thing you should ever assume in poker is that some person you have limited reads on is capable of making big folds

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Thanks, this is going in the clip-file.

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after thousands of dollars lost and a few smashed mice it finally sunk in.

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Only a few more mice to go and another couple of grand until I get this then. AWESOME.

M2M - another question for you if you take a look back in here, at these stakes, would you routinely peel the flop here to see if he shuts down on the turn, or just give it up on the flop?

peeling the flop is fine. folding the turn is the correct play.

there are spots you just can't win because the range they are repping is super super strong and you just cant do anything with stellar reads

1) I'm not sure what hands in his range you think you're getting to fold with this line.
2) What exactly is he supposed to think you have?

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Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Ong - thanks for the reply. Clearly I have a lot to learn here, because I still just don't get it...

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I too have a lot to learn. I don't get why peeling flop is fine if our plan is to fold the turn, but if it's bikes telling me folding turn is correct, well I gotta try and figure out why.

Are we folding to a 7d turn?

I'm going to guess why bikes suggests this line, taking from a conversation he and I had during my coaching session.

Peeling the flop is fine because it's a wet board that Villain will bet a lot of draws. In this case, probably flush draws, since the only straight draws are gutshot wheel draws. On the turn, the flush draws complete, so now Villain's range includes the Ax hands that had Hero beat on the flop PLUS the now complete flushes.

Even if the turn was a blank, the fact that Villain is still firing means they're not afraid that Hero is holding the Ace.

If it was a rainbow flop, very dry like this, then Hero would not peel the flop.

kk thats not what i meant when i said that but im in a food coma atm and need to spend more time with my dad so clarification will have to wait

I think there's a lot of missing info on what your range is going to look like here to Villain, If I were villain I would not at all be expecting you to continue oop in 3b pots with that many hands that make flushes unless you've given me good reason to believe otherwise.

Is this guy 3bing IP a lot or from the blinds? Are you 4betting AK here (seems like a no if you're flatting qq vs him)? Does he seem like the kind of guy that's gonna bet river with random Ax 3b bluffs? or do you think he's going to be checking back turn often with those hands to try bluffcatch? Just feel like we are missing a ton of important info to make a play like this, exp with only 120 hand sample (?).

I would think that if you think he's prone to barrel a lot you would not ever be raising turn with the As or Ks in your hand and probably not that often with any ace of than AJ, so as these folks have said your value range looks really really tiny, and if you've shown any willingness to make big bluffs villain is probably going to get very stubborn and curious with a lot of the hands you're trying to fold. If you think he's just gonna 3 barrel with air here all the time (disagree with this) it would make more sense even to just station him down than c/r.

check fold flop, peel flop is ok if you have a good reason based on reads - you've given us zero reads so just go with the default that when an unknown is happy to cbet an ace high board in a 3b pot you aren't ahead often enough to call.
as played don't put any money in on the turn obviously.

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Originally Posted by bjsaust

1) I'm not sure what hands in his range you think you're getting to fold with this line.
2) What exactly is he supposed to think you have?

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Perhaps the wrong answers, but my answers nonetheless:

1. Strong aces

2. Random, rag spades - he doesn't have any history with me, so can easily believe I could be calling 3bets oop with 49ss for example.

Don't other microstakes players make the default assumption implicit in answer 2 - that a relative unknown can easily have all sorts of random suited crap in their range, even oop in a 3bet pot???

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Originally Posted by deadstraddl3

I think there's a lot of missing info on what your range is going to look like here to Villain, If I were villain I would not at all be expecting you to continue oop in 3b pots with that many hands that make flushes unless you've given me good reason to believe otherwise.

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This is completely opposite to the default assumption I state in my other post, that an unknown can call a 3bet oop with all sorts of suited crap at these stakes. I don't know, perhaps I'm alone in that assumption, but it's one I'd routinely make against an unknown, and in any case my hand reading isn't good enough yet I guess to exclude this against better players who I do have a read on, but certainly I get the point that there aren't many suited hands here against a competent opponent.

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Just feel like we are missing a ton of important info to make a play like this, exp with only 120 hand sample (?).

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Undoubtedly true based on the responses itt.

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I would think that if you think he's prone to barrel a lot you would not ever be raising turn with the As or Ks in your hand and probably not that often with any ace of than AJ, so as these folks have said your value range looks really really tiny, and if you've shown any willingness to make big bluffs villain is probably going to get very stubborn and curious with a lot of the hands you're trying to fold. If you think he's just gonna 3 barrel with air here all the time (disagree with this) it would make more sense even to just station him down than c/r.

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I accept what you say in this paragraph, but I think there are two problems with applying it to play at this level. The opponent can't handread as well as you are giving him credit for (and nor can I), and it doesn't matter whether or not we are balancing by taking the line we'd take if we really had a big spade, since he won't notice or exploit an unbalanced line (really just another way of saying he can't handread well).

I dunno, I clearly made a mistake here, and won't try it again, but I disagree with some of the reasoning put forward for why he can't give us credit for a flush.

The best argument I have seen, and the one that really does convince me, is what M2M said about not assuming people are capable of folding a decent hand, that I can easily believe.

You can't both assume you know him well enough to know he'll fold a strong ace on an ace high flop in a 3bet pot AND think he can assume you have weird suited crap because you have no history.

People don't fold strong aces on ace high flops in 3 bet pots unless you have a strong read that they can make big folds. That's why they raise AK preflop, to hit an ace. You're essentially expecting him to fold all bar the very top of his range on the assumption he thinks you could have suited crap OOP in a 3bet pot, and that you'd take this line if you did.

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Originally Posted by bjsaust

You can't both assume you know him well enough to know he'll fold a strong ace on an ace high flop in a 3bet pot AND think he can assume you have weird suited crap because you have no history.

People don't fold strong aces on ace high flops in 3 bet pots unless you have a strong read that they can make big folds. That's why they raise AK preflop, to hit an ace. You're essentially expecting him to fold all bar the very top of his range on the assumption he thinks you could have suited crap OOP in a 3bet pot, and that you'd take this line if you did.

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Ok, this makes sense.

Thanks too all who contributed to this thread - I've learned a ton here. Obviously happy to continue if anyone has anything else to add, but really I think I finally get it.