10nl 5-handed: Flop tptk and nfd - c/f to action?

I flop one of the best hands I can after a fairly loose call here pre against two passive fish, but figure I should fold once button raises flop despite wanting to jam - thoughts?

Utg is 23/18 and seems positionally aware pre. Passive player post flop when clearly ahead but did spew a BI against me with ak high.

Button is 19/7/1, calls button and blinds far too often, seems to be passive post flop.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($11.66)
MP ($10)
Button ($11.95)
SB ($18.80)
Hero (BB) ($10.64)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
UTG bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button calls $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.90, Button raises to $2.20, Hero???

Please put some plausible ranges in Pokerstove and do a bit of work and tell us what you find.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eugmac

Please put some plausible ranges in Pokerstove and do a bit of work and tell us what you find.

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Def this.

shoulda led this flop not close.

Stop using the stove and start using Equilab.

Using Equilab, you can:

• auto-sort post-flop ranges by hand strength
• do equity calculations on your outs
• create and save ranges that you want quick access to remember
• look up suggested ranges based on position and tight/standard/loose from various sources
• etc.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eugmac

Please put some plausible ranges in Pokerstove and do a bit of work and tell us what you find.

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But do this, and you may answer your own question and come up with a more cutting question to ask.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bikes

shoulda led this flop not close.

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Interesting, as I think this is a place I would auto c/R. Interested to hear your reasoning.

OP kind of gave the impression that he might not be aware of the kind of equity he is likely to have, since he's talking about folding, hence my dry cooker-cutter response.

BTN is so passive that he's only repping a narrow range here imo. This is the widest I gave him at the time and I doubt he even raises TT-JJ into a pot sized lead from UTG:

Board: 6s 7s 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.193% 42.60% 00.59% 11810 163.00 { As9s }
Hand 1: 56.807% 56.22% 00.59% 15584 163.00 { JJ-99, 77-66, T8s, 97s, 76s }


I assumed UTG would fold despite the strong lead if I jam.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eugmac

Interesting, as I think this is a place I would auto c/R. Interested to hear your reasoning.

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OP stated that both players are passive post flop. A c/r could just get checked around and then you're hating several turn cards. Lead flop, not even close

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

BTN is so passive that he's only repping a narrow range here imo. This is the widest I gave him at the time and I doubt he even raises TT-JJ into a pot sized lead from UTG:

Board: 6s 7s 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.193% 42.60% 00.59% 11810 163.00 { As9s }
Hand 1: 56.807% 56.22% 00.59% 15584 163.00 { JJ-99, 77-66, T8s, 97s, 76s }


I assumed UTG would fold despite the strong lead if I jam.

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So if you fold as played, would you be making a mistake?

@shotglass, yeah re-reading the reads on opps I think in retrospect I would do the same. I thought UTG is aggressive for some reason.

Jam is marginally bad before rake if this is the widest I give him and assuming UTG folds. I hate flatting with UTG behind showing strength too but it just feels too nitty to fold this.

Does this seem like a fair range for a passive post-flop player?

How far behind do you think we are?

How much equity do you think we need to continue? Jam?

Why isn't UTGs range being considered? What happens to our equity if we do add his range?

Why do you assume UTG will fold? Do we want him to?

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Why do you assume UTG will fold? Do we want him to?

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BAM.

Call and hope utg either comes along for the ride or shoves and gets called by button.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by supa

How far behind do you think we are? Not far based on my range, although I think this is too wide in retrospect

How much equity do you think we need to continue? Jam? We have 9 clean outs (so approx 20% on the turn). We don't have pot odds to call if utg folds or flats and we don't have postion, but we may get one street of value if we call and hit our flush however to make flatting +EV. If I jam, it seems clear that btn will call and I won't have the 46% I need to make the jam profitable (if utg folds).

Why isn't UTGs range being considered? What happens to our equity if we do add his range?...Why do you assume UTG will fold? Do we want him to? If we give UTG a fairly tight 66+ only, we have 35% equity and clearly we are okay with him jamming if we flat as this will show a small profit in the long run. I assume he will fold however if I jam based on the size and speed of his bet and the fact he's passive post flop, with only idiots getting it in here 3-way without 2 pair+ or a huge draw.

Overall, I think it's close between c/f and call as played, with the key judgement being how utg reacts if I do call or jam.

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Or am I just getting myself in a mess here?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Does this seem like a fair range for a passive post-flop player?

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Why did you choose that range for Villain? Why is there only 1 Villain in your equity calc?

I think if UTG is positionally aware, then start with the overall 23/18 and cut it in half. So VPIP is ~ 12%
{ 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+ }

If button is 19/7, then just go with the 19% VPIP
{ 66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ }

Then crank the button's range up to ~40% and see what changes.

Pot Odds:
assuming UTG will fold:
2.20/(0.95 + 0.90 + 2.20 + 2.20) ~= 35%
Hero only needs 35% equity to make a call.

assuming UTG will call:
2.20/(0.95 + 2.20 + 2.20 + 2.20) ~= 29%
Hero only needs 29% equity to make a call.

Even after Villain's ranges are narrowed to overpair or better, no matter if one or both villains stay in the pot, I can't find a scenario where Hero has less than 44% equity.

Hand equity greater than pot odds = not folding.