100NL - Facing c/r on dry board from loose reg

Villain here is a loose reg. 33/27 over 3.5k hands. Overall 3bet percentage is 10%, with 11% BB v CO opens. I'd estimate higher here, given we are 4 handed.

His flop c/r is 14%.

Stacks:
Hero ($227.58) 228bb
BTN ($117.25) 117bb
SB ($95.55) 96bb
BB ($140.12) 140bb

Pre-Flop: :kc: :js: ($1.50, 4 players)
Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: :3d: :3s: :2c: ($6.50, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.95, BB raises to $12, Hero ???


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So yeah, basically I feel like my range is definitely stronger than his here. I think he's basically always 3betting JJ+/AQ+ here, flatting them relatively infrequently (if at all. He's not really the type). I don't think he has many 3x combos in his flatting range, other than maybe A3s (2 combos) and 33 (1 combo). Then of course he might flat 22 preflop 140bb deep. So his check/raising range looks pretty air heavy, or comprised mostly of small-mid overpairs.

Whereas, I can have all overpairs, 33, 22, A3s, AK/AQ.

But I'm unsure how to go about exploiting his check/raising range here. Primarily the times I want to re-bluff, but also what line is best with my value hands.

I feel like given most of the time we are dealing with a somewhat polarized range here, our best line with nut hands IP is to flat the c/r with the intention of flatting turn and shoving river. Betting if checked to. That line allows villain to keep bluffs in his range, and barrel turn and river cards incorrectly (against our value hands).

But maybe I could be wrong, and simply 3betting the flop with our nut hands is best? Repping more air, and leading towards us not being unbalanced the times we want to 3bet the flop as a bluff?

Either way, how can we go about playing back at villain in an instance like this? 3bet flop here? Call, and let him barrel a K/J, raise turn on blanks? Call blank turns, hoping to shove river?

I just don't really know what sort of range to put villains on here, since I don't really find myself check/raising the flop in a spot like this all that often (except when villain just cbet/folds too much).

If we are just folding here, what sort of range are we looking to continue with? And what's the best line with that range?

I'd just flat until he gives up if we decide to play.

14% flop c/r is very high.

I think this is a decent spot to flop 3b small. He doesn't have many hands that can credibly jam on yo.

I would rather call with Ax here that can actually call a turn barrel as well. Sucks to be floating here with K high vs A5/A4 stuff.

Given stacks though it's possible his flatting range is wider pre, trying to check a safe flop. Hands like 88-TT that it sounds like he would normally 3b, might flatting now.

Just something to keep in mind.

ok, first strat post in god knows how long.

First points; all your reads are based off stats. There doesnt seem to be any history with villian. are you MTing?

Hand as played is a fold without many reads.

if you were to have history you would still need to know what your plan on turn will be if he bets when you call flop or do you expect him to give up on turns. i think theres too much money at risk staying in the hand with little in the way of reads.

c/r of 14% isnt representative of 3.5k hands. it prob more like 14% of 50-75 situtations?

Somewhat of a tough spot to be in...you probably have the best hand against the loose player, but the rest of the hand is gonna be kinda awkward..

You've gotta realize that after the villain c/r the flop, it isn't unlikely that he leads out at you on the turn.

If you think you have the best hand (which you probably do), I guess you could 3-bet the flop. However, if you get raised (or even called) I would be very cautious moving forward, as they could easily have a 3 or a smaller overpair (44-88).